He's thinking 4x doesn't overbet turn. So you must have 88, TT, KK, KT, or K8. But he blocks TT, 88, KT and K8 so that narrows your range down to bluffs and KK.


He doesn't think Kx one pair bets like this.

But there are probably more combos of K8 KT 88 TT KK 44 than the bluffs here since there's no FD. QJ, AQ, AJ, J9, Q9.


He put you on J9 of diamonds.

lol

More like he folds most 4x OTT vs that size
and gives drone credit for jamming K8 KT here + appropriate bluffs, there's plenty to choose from
so he knows he has to choose some shit

when I go big on the turn ( by big I mean bigger than this 150% size, ranges that vbet and call get smaller, so blocking and removal become more relevant) I dont think I should be going for a bigger overbet + shove with this K8 hand because its one of the hands that ill be paid with, AA KT KK TT 88 are all much better options than K8 to do that

that said one important aspect of the hand is that there's a bunch of missed gutshots and straight draws that missed and this forces me to use a bigger size with a wider range, 56 57 67 96 97 J9 Q9 QJ, when I have all this much offsuited combos I really need to expand my value range on the turn and go HAM, in this case I think I can potentially shove this hand, just sucks that I block toppair, but AA would be a very good hand to shove

even if you go 200% ott, the river shove will be almost 4x pot right? O_o
my nit psyche is in pain

games have changed oldtimer

due to the dynamic nature of the turn, range advantage, and mostly due to the fact that all of your bets have equity (turn isn't a binary vbet/bluff spot like river) you can be MUCH wider betting when checked to there than on river. On the river the size of your bluffing range (as in the #of combos you can bluff with; not talking hand selection) is always going to stem from your value range and not vice versa. It isn't like you can valuebet river wider because you semibluffed a ton of hands on the turn. Your river vbet range has more to do with the range your opponent gets to the river with. The most you can do is use a larger river sizing which allows more of your whiffed SDs to be bluffed with (basic pot odds).

If you truly bet too wide on turn you would simply be forced to check back more on river as opposed to expanding your betting range

no you tripping balls brah

howard lederer says to bluff 1/3 of the time he seems pretty good

On October 16 2019 09:53 Santafairy wrote: howard lederer says to bluff 1/3 of the time he seems pretty good

he bluffed 3/3 of the time though

you can basically test it in pio by nodelocking the turn strats and then seeing how river plays out. compare the gto turn and river play to a sim where you lock your turn betting range as having more air and then lock opponent turn strat so it doesn't resolve to play looser vs ur expanded range. river check % goes up

What I said is simple, when I have a fuckton of semi bluffs on the turn, villain will be calling turn lighter with showdownable hands, so you are running in circles with what you saying, seems like you are saying that his range is going to be static if i have more or less air on the turn

Both players having a wider turn range, will imply in both players having a wider range on the river, I'll have more "nuts" and air and he'll have more bluffcstchers since he called lighter turn i can also vbet lighter the river

Traxa's assuming BB won't adjust to your wider turn range

not sure why though
seems pretty obvious with the board this drawy both ranges expand
why'd you want to lock in wide turn barrel range
and keep BB constant

On October 15 2019 13:52 Nitewin wrote: But there are probably more combos of K8 KT 88 TT KK 44 than the bluffs here since there's no FD. QJ, AQ, AJ, J9, Q9.

naw there are still a lot more bluffs even though there's no flush draw, just because of how many straight draws there are. if you count all the suited/offsuit combos of the straight draws you listed, that's already 5x16 = 80 combos. now we add in some J7s 97s 96s 76s 75s 65s and that number increases. granted not all of these are going to be betting both flop and turn like this, but it's still a lot. compare it to our value range of {44, TT, KK, KT, or K8} which is only 24 combos (and not all of them will play this way either). include AA AK KQ K4s and we get another 36 combos, which is still only 60 combos

but that's fine because we have range advantage and can apply a ton of pressure, we just have to be careful how often we bluff river. with larger river sizings we can bluff more (although not TOO much more, as the highest amount we can ever really bluff approaches a maximum of 50%; if we bluff higher than 50% on river given any sizing, opponent always has a profitable call with a bluffcatcher regardless of bet sizing).

given drone's river sizing villain needs 900/2400 = 37.5% 'equity' to call, which means we should bluff 37.5% of the time with this size (and he should look to call or raise 37.5% of the time, i think). if we stick with the same value range as the turn which is roughly 60 combos (slightly reduced now because we have fewer 44 and K4) we want to bluff around 35-40 combos. which is a bit less than half our missed draws. not entirely sure how we should pick what bluffs to use but it prob doesn't matter too much as long as we get the frequency right. it's important to know exactly how many bluffs we will have here though, like how often we are checking back flop with a hand like AQo, or 97h, etc, and also our exact value range, like how often we are checking back KK or KT on flop. another thing is how often we are checking back a value hand on the turn (we need SOME because otherwise our river range when we check turn is super capped).

but yeah if we know all our shit then the only decision is what sizing we want to use on river. i'm not actually sure about this, it prob depends on SPR quite a bit. if we only have like 3x pot or less then allin might be good as this allow us to maximize our number of bluffs. but if we are too deep (say, a billion blinds deep) and we go allin then our risk-reward gets really terrible and villain has a jolly time every time he somehow has quads and snaps us for a 2 billion pot (while losing a pot of 600 999 times out of every 1000 pots, still super worth it for him). so our sizing prob also depends on how often villain has a super strong hand with an easy call regardless of our bet size. i'm not too sure about this tbh. BUT if villain WAS to be capped to only bluffcatchers on the river then maybe the best exploitative play IS to bet the 1 billion into the 600 pot, because that gets us as close to 50% bluffs as possible. but yeah that's if villain sucks and isn't protecting himself from range-cappage at all; if he even has a single combo of the nuts ever then our play becomes absolutely terrible. it's honestly just really bad because there's no absolute certain way to confirm what villain could or could not have, and considering the risk reward we're winning like 0.01 more BBs if we are right on our assumption, while if we are wrong we are losing like 38.2 million BBs.