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Sports Betting Beatable?

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SaturdayZerg   Canada. Sep 19 2011 13:59. Posts 72
For someone who does not have access to inside information, is online sports betting beatable in the long run?

I've been watching and reading professional tennis now for years now but not sure if I can ever get an edge over gambling sites.

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hapahauli   United States. Sep 19 2011 14:37. Posts 24

Very beatable. One nice thing about it doesn't get any more difficult as you move up in bet sizes.

2+2 has a rather nice FAQ on the subject:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/...betting-faq-updated-11-03-2010-a-319/


qwerty67890   New Zealand. Sep 19 2011 15:41. Posts 14026

no.com


Raid   United States. Sep 19 2011 15:49. Posts 318

The sports betting hero: Billy Walters

My roommate signed up for one of his programs and immediately went 10-for-13 in top plays (first three weeks of football). We're only doing the 2%-5% of total bankroll per play thing, so, I guess hitting 55% or better for the season is the goal.


barbieman   Sweden. Sep 19 2011 18:59. Posts 2132

from what I've gathered/heard, pinnacle is the best site. They have the lowest profit margin at 2,5%, the average for sports betting sites is something like 8%


Oly   United Kingdom. Sep 20 2011 08:39. Posts 3574


  On September 19 2011 14:49 Raid wrote:
The sports betting hero: Billy Walters

My roommate signed up for one of his programs and immediately went 10-for-13 in top plays (first three weeks of football). We're only doing the 2%-5% of total bankroll per play thing, so, I guess hitting 55% or better for the season is the goal.



2-5% seems a pretty huge % of your roll to put on a single bet if you are trying to be a pro sports bettor. I imagine the variance is very big.

I do pretty well sportsbetting by picking spots where the market is skewed by fans. The best example I have ever seen was last year's Champions League final where you could get barca to win in 90 mins at evens! It was the best bet I've seen and was blatantly because man united has by far the most fans worldwide.

Researchers used brain scans to show that when straight men looked at pictures of women in bikinis, areas of the brain that normally light up in anticipation of using tools, like spanners and screwdrivers, were activated. 

Raid   United States. Sep 21 2011 02:03. Posts 318


  On September 20 2011 07:39 Oly wrote:
Show nested quote +



2-5% seems a pretty huge % of your roll to put on a single bet if you are trying to be a pro sports bettor. I imagine the variance is very big.

I do pretty well sportsbetting by picking spots where the market is skewed by fans. The best example I have ever seen was last year's Champions League final where you could get barca to win in 90 mins at evens! It was the best bet I've seen and was blatantly because man united has by far the most fans worldwide.


Our rolls are only around $5k, and we weren't attempting to do it for a living, so, that's why we were 2%-5%. I suppose 1%-2% of bankroll per play is the suggested amount? I was planning on reducing bet sizes as soon as our hot streak ended.


Melloweitsj   Norway. Sep 21 2011 02:37. Posts 83


  On September 21 2011 01:03 Raid wrote:
Show nested quote +



Our rolls are only around $5k, and we weren't attempting to do it for a living, so, that's why we were 2%-5%. I suppose 1%-2% of bankroll per play is the suggested amount? I was planning on reducing bet sizes as soon as our hot streak ended.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion is how much you should bet (or a derivative of Kelly would be more practical for most people).

While it is true that sportsbetting scales better in theory, in practice this is not the case. The events that noob sports bettors are finding edges on often have low limits. Also, books are frequently booting and limiting winners and stiffing/stealing/fraud are faaaar more common in the sports betting world than poker.

Wææ... skistav! 

qwerty67890   New Zealand. Sep 21 2011 06:06. Posts 14026

pretty sure Billy Walters sports betting is all a front for money laundering or something.


 



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