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Push Overcards + Flush Draw on Flop? |
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k2o4 United States. Nov 25 2007 01:57. Posts 4803 | | |
I just posted this rambling rant on my team's forum and plan to clean it up a bit and then post it on the main poker forums later, but for now I'm gonna throw it down here.
Ok, what I've been consistently told is that it's a +ev play to push 2 overcards and a flush draw on the flop. I started wondering if this was really true though, and here's what I found after doing a bunch of messing around in a odds calculator.
I started thinking that if you get called, you're probably pretty fucked. And that does seem to be the case. Let's figure out what hands are going to bet into us or raise us on the flop, and then call an all-in bet.
A pair: They either have top pair top kicker, a pair with a decent kicker, or an overpair. Vs JJ on a 27T board w/ AK and a flush draw, you're golden and winning 53%. Same if they have something like JT. But let's say they have top pair top kicker... AJ... now your ace is counterfeit and you're only winning 46% of the time. I think that the majority of the time that someone will call your all in bet with only 1 pair, they will have top pair top kicker or an overpair. So this almost makes it feel like having KQs is better than AKs for those spots.
Two Pair: vs 2pair you're in a world of hurt. Now you're basically on a flush draw and winning 36% of the time.
Set: It's worse vs a set, cause you're again on a flush draw but the set has so many redraws into a boat that you're only winning 25% of the time.
Str8: This is the best of the bigger made hands as all your flush outs are clean, so you win 37% of the time.
Flush or Str8 Draw: Maybe you get lucky and have someone call who's just drawing to a better hand (possible but not likely). Now you're a favorite to win, anywhere between 70% to 90% depending on their cards being higher or lower than urs.
boat / 4 of a kind: obviously you're not wanting to make this play on a paired board, but if you did and they had a boat or quads, you're fucked and winning less than 1% of the time.
Now, I figure that any set, two pair or str8 is gonna call your push. You'll get some calls from TpTk and an overpair. So when you do get called, you've got a high chance of losing. I don't know that you get enough folds to your all-in to make up for the losses you take when they do call.
Now, if we switch things into an Open Ended Str8 draw + a flush draw, you're in business. You're winning vs the majority of hands... you own top pair 55% and two pair 51%, win 42% vs a set and are even winning 52% vs a str8 if they have the low end and you're drawing to the top end. Add 2 overcards to the mix and you're even more solid, taking down top pair 67% of the time.
So I still think that an open ended str8 draw + a flush draw (especially with overcards) is a hand to push on the flop. I'm just not sure if two overcards + a flush draw is worth it. You might be counterfeit and only have 1 overcard vs their pair so you're losing, and vs 2pair/set/str8 you're screwed.
Thoughts?
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c)N-Marine United States. Nov 25 2007 02:08. Posts 40 | | |
hmm.. I think 46% - 54% is close enough to merit it as a coin flip. I'll usually shove the nut flush draw as long as I believe my ace card is live. I just feel if we flat call on the flush draw and we hit you will rarely get paid off. IMHO. |
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nomanirvana United States. Nov 25 2007 03:04. Posts 2523 | | |
I think it depends on your opponent and whether you have fold equity. If you dont have atleast a little bit of fold equity its a pretty marginal / losing play except against people who are aggressive and/or get it all in fairly light on the flop.
Even if its just a break even play over the long term it improves your image so its a good idea yes? |
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| | Last edit: 25/11/2007 03:06 |
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Sometimes the retards folds and sometimes they go "lolz he has a flushdraw" with their stupid TPTK vs your set, so keep pushing. |
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ShaunR United States. Nov 25 2007 03:45. Posts 604 | | |
You have fold equity more often than you think though. Let's say you raise from the button with AhKh and get a call from the big blind who has AJ. The flop comes J 9 4 with 2 hearts. The blind checks, you bet, he raises. Many people may not fold AJ to a shove but many others will, and when you get them to lay down that hand it is hugely +ev.
Another example lets say you have the same hand only the villain has 10-10 and the flop is 789 (2 hearts) giving the villain an open ended straight draw. He might decide to get cute with this hand on the flop and then fold to a big shove, even though he's the favorite because he "doesnt want to go broke on a straight draw" if he's convinced you have an overpair.
One thing I don't do however is shove these hands multiway where multiple villains have shown an interest in the pot. If there are 2 or more opponents I want to keep them all in and slowly build the pot. |
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exalted United States. Nov 25 2007 04:44. Posts 2918 | | |
If people only play back at me with TPTK and two pair or better, then they're in for a "WORLD OF HURT"
ninja edit: DUCY? |
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| exalted from teamliquid :o | Last edit: 25/11/2007 04:44 |
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