Spin n go (bored numbers)

New to LiquidPoker? Register here for free!

Forum Index > Poker Blogs

Forrest Gump Argentina. Apr 27 2015 07:36. Posts 1217

Cliffs:
-You dont need so much volume to see if regular spin n go suits your interest
-You may never hit the Spin n go 1M and you wont compensate that glory with all the wasted rake

Unlike MTTs where you have to win to realize your ROI at spin n go you need to play well your most frequent multipliers (usually the first 3 to 5) and look at your chip ev to see if you have some pontential. At usual spin n go with buy in $15 or more, lets say you never see other than the x2 multiplier. Then your rake will be 33%. Now, lets say you never see the x6+ multiplier but you see the x2 with usual frequency and the x4 instead of the other ones, then your rake as shown in the table (1) below will be 13.6%.

Obviously with enough volume you'll be able to hit the higher multipliers, but can I live with that? Lets say I want to play 20000 spins this year, what's my chance of not playing the top multiplier? Simply (1-0.00001)^20000 = 0.82, but almost 0 that I wont hit the x25+. So if I can beat a 7% rake I can do well during the year. Also I know its a matter of few years before I hit the top prize if Im patient enough

Now, lets go to the 1M spin n go. Lets say they never end this promotion. The chance of not hitting the 1M game based on table 2: (1-0.0000003)^20000 = 0.994. Chance of not hitting after 50 years: last result ^ 50 = 0.74. So, you can possibly never hit it and win. There's also the fact of being a millionaire not as valuable as loosing that much rake and time if you consider some prospect theory.

TABLE (1)

$15+ 100000 fq rake with max multiplier
2 70518 0,70518 -0,333333333
4 21366 0,21366 -0,136786667
6 7500 0,075 -0,08268
10 500 0,005 -0,074466667
25 100 0,001 -0,068666667
120 10 0,0001 -0,0636
240 5 0,00005 -0,0612
3600 1 0,00001 -0,05

141036
85464
45000
5000
2500
1200
1200
3600

285000 total prize
300000 total $ collected
0,95
0,05 rake

TABLE (2)

M 10000000 fq rake with max multiplier
2 7585694 0,7585694 -0,333333333
4 1704653 0,1704653 -0,17
6 660000 0,066 -0,1250694
10 40000 0,004 -0,118449
25 8000 0,0008 -0,1136225
120 1250 0,000125 -0,108388
1200 400 0,00004 -0,09388
240000 3 0,0000003 -0,07

15171388 0,543777348
6818612 0,244394695
3960000 0,141935484
400000 0,014336918
200000 0,007168459
150000 0,005376344
480000 0,017204301
720000 0,025806452

27900000 total prize
30000000 total $ collected
0,93
0,07 rake

0 votes

ADZ124: why do people put pictures of their child in stars.. its like please help feed my child im a fish i cant play?

rogier Netherlands. Apr 27 2015 08:02. Posts 1528

so based on your math, what win percentage do you need if you never see a x6+ multiplier?

also, what do you mean with rake with max multiplier ?

Forrest Gump Argentina. Apr 27 2015 08:47. Posts 1217

To the second question I merge all frequencies of higher multipliers in that one. For example if you never hit 6x or more, I consider the x2 with 70518/100000 frequency and x6 1-70518/100000 freq. Then I calculate the ROI in case you run a chip ev of 0
To the first question your chip ev needs to be 1/(1+0.1367) = 1.158

ADZ124: why do people put pictures of their child in stars.. its like please help feed my child im a fish i cant play?

rogier Netherlands. Apr 27 2015 10:45. Posts 1528

which translates to 1.158*33.333=38.6 percent wins?

Interesting calculations though, as I was looking for this kind of information exactly