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What do u think? Heuristics/Bias |
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YO SONS
I am not sure if this is an article, a speech, or a casual essay. What do u guys think of it?
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Heuristics And Bias of The Mind
Have you ever had to read a long text that simply didn't pique your interest? We've all tried to get it over with in one long session, just reading and reading.. Until suddenly realizing, “Hey, I've read the past two paragraphs but have no idea what they said.”
Let me be the first to welcome you to the enormous field of research in mental heuristics (or shortcuts), dedicated to uncovering the what's and how's of which actions the mind performs outside of awareness – reading in this case – and how these mental shortcuts can lead us astray, causing biases in everyday decisions big and small. If some part of your mind can automatically, effortlessly read, what else is it doing without your knowing?
Research has shown that mental heuristics are universal among all peoples, and those in the field have come to describe automatic thought, which happens constantly and outside of awareness, as the work of System 1. Effortful thinking on the other hand is the domain of System 2. For instance, finding the solution to a difficult math problem is done by the deliberate and logical operations of System 2. The steps taken toward the solution can be logically followed back and forth. But reading simple words in your native language, or solving 2+2=? is an automatic activity of System 1. Certainly we can't afford to think through every single thing we do, nor do we always have the time to, so when does System 1 benefit us and when does it mislead or influence System 2 without our even recognizing it?
Imagine yourself in the kitchen preparing a meal when a sharp knife is accidentally knocked from the counter. In what may be called instinct, the mind immediately asks and answers several questions, “What object fell? Should I catch it or move away? Where should I move to avoid danger(back, forward, left, right)?” then sends the appropriate commands to your limbs. You've already moved, the knife having clattered harmlessly to the floor. System 1 worked it out quickly, effectively, and decisively – you didn't have time for conscious thought. But what if a pot of boiling water was balancing on the counter behind your left elbow? Depending on the urgency (or if you usually have a pot of boiling water there) it is possible that System 1 wouldn't take the boiling water into account, at which point you're in a world of hurt.
“Surely, I wouldn't be so foolish as to place a pot of boiling water on the edge of a counter!” But System 1 heuristics extend beyond the home kitchen, an environment under your control. Read the following sentence,
“Which fast food restaurant...”
It is likely that the name McDonalds popped into mind over any of the other myriad fast food restaurants in town. Why? Does McDonalds serve the tastiest french fries or burgers, the healthiest or highest quality food, are they even your favorite fast food joint? Probably not. Yet the name is so prominent that System 1 brings it into consciousness when the words “fast food” are uttered. Their marketing has embedded the brand into your and the public's mind, knowing that research has demonstrated that when a consumer has a choice between a familiar name and an unknown, they are likely to choose the familiar. System 1 recognizes McDonalds and feels safer; System 2 is lazy, often adopting the first's suggestion without question. If this unconscious bias towards familiarity is universal. Then what other, more important decisions, are effected by thoughts of which we are unaware even occurred?
The study of mental heuristics and the bias they cause was pioneered by Amos Tversky, PhD and Daniel Kahneman, PhD over twenty five years ago. Since that time the field has become a full blown avenue of research within the field of psychology while the research coming out of it has transformed the way we think about such diverse fields as economics, management, marketing, and more. Systematic bias in Systems 1 and the way they effect System 2 are part of the very basis of what it means to think; therefore past and ongoing research in the field is relevant to every single form of human inquiry. While here we've only just begun to scratch the surface of what is already known, we all have much left to learn; I expect you'll come along for the ride.
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barbieman Sweden. Jan 14 2012 23:00. Posts 2132 | | | |
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NewbSaibot United States. Jan 14 2012 23:31. Posts 4943 | | | |
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GoTuNk Chile. Jan 15 2012 01:21. Posts 2860 | | | |
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El_Tanque United States. Jan 15 2012 03:57. Posts 360 | | | |
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zionlll Belgium. Jan 15 2012 04:03. Posts 169 | | | |
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Silver_nz New Zealand. Jan 15 2012 04:27. Posts 5647 | | |
did you write it? it's very well written.
I think its on the right track in terms of the model of how people think it propses, but wrong enough to cause alot of damage if you stop at having just System1 and System2. There are miltiple interacting systems, feedback loops arranged hirachically.
PCT yo.
http://www.livingcontrolsystems.com/msob/content_msob.html |
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spets1 Australia. Jan 15 2012 05:15. Posts 2179 | | |
of course every1 is biased. This is how religion works. This is why older people don't like to learn new things and are stubborn.
This is why if you read some strategy of poker once you will understand something. But if you read same strategy again once you improved your game you can find tons more information which you missed out reading it the first time. |
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It's basic psychology. We often use the heuristics because it's saving time and energy. Kind of like rule of thumbs. Will obviously lead to some error in judgement and biases, but it's fast and convenient in many ways.
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| | On January 15 2012 03:27 Silver_nz wrote:
did you write it? it's very well written.
I think its on the right track in terms of the model of how people think it propses, but wrong enough to cause alot of damage if you stop at having just System1 and System2. There are miltiple interacting systems, feedback loops arranged hirachically.
PCT yo.
http://www.livingcontrolsystems.com/msob/content_msob.html |
yes I wrote it yesterday, thanks dude
I can't read the book in your link right now, but I've been really into learning more about the field through the work of Daniel K's magnum opus "Thinking Fast and Slow" , and through reading Nassim Taleb's "Fooled By Randomness" and "The Black Swan". They're all beautiful books and I highly HIGHLY recommend all three.. could start with any of them btw
--- I just took a look around the site and I can't seem to find any of their supporting research etc, it kind of looks like they are selling a motivational/way-to-live/self-help series of books more than doing any rigorous scientific inquiry -- just my first impressions from the About page, etc.
Still,
I'll take a closer look at your link this evening; PCT nor livingcontrolsystems have come up in anything I've read. |
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| | Last edit: 15/01/2012 10:34 |
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| | On January 15 2012 06:47 SpasticInk wrote:
It's basic psychology. We often use the heuristics because it's saving time and energy. Kind of like rule of thumbs. Will obviously lead to some error in judgement and biases, but it's fast and convenient in many ways.
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appreciate the read friend.
I know  I have quite a bit more knowledge in this field than what is in the article (tho I have shitloads to learn/am not an expert).. my intention with the article is to introduce these ideas to people who might not otherwise have any real clue, and to spark an interest in the material.. what do you think of that? |
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| | Last edit: 15/01/2012 10:38 |
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Jan 15 2012 12:45. Posts 15163 | | | |
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Ket  United Kingdom. Jan 15 2012 15:22. Posts 8665 | | |
| | On January 15 2012 09:28 Night2o1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 15 2012 03:27 Silver_nz wrote:
did you write it? it's very well written.
I think its on the right track in terms of the model of how people think it propses, but wrong enough to cause alot of damage if you stop at having just System1 and System2. There are miltiple interacting systems, feedback loops arranged hirachically.
PCT yo.
http://www.livingcontrolsystems.com/msob/content_msob.html |
yes I wrote it yesterday, thanks dude
I can't read the book in your link right now, but I've been really into learning more about the field through the work of Daniel K's magnum opus "Thinking Fast and Slow" , and through reading Nassim Taleb's "Fooled By Randomness" and "The Black Swan". They're all beautiful books and I highly HIGHLY recommend all three.. could start with any of them btw
--- I just took a look around the site and I can't seem to find any of their supporting research etc, it kind of looks like they are selling a motivational/way-to-live/self-help series of books more than doing any rigorous scientific inquiry -- just my first impressions from the About page, etc.
Still,
I'll take a closer look at your link this evening; PCT nor livingcontrolsystems have come up in anything I've read.
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First book that came to mind when I saw this thread was Blink by Malcom Gladwell.. probably covers a lot of the same topcs as the books on your list, which I have not read. Have you read Blink? Is it worth reading thinking fast and slow and the black swan if so? I think everything in Fooled by Randomness should be pretty lolduhobvious to an experienced poker player (also i didn't like the writer's selfimportant style of writing, look at me im so much smarter than finance geeks blah blah blah) |
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Silver_nz New Zealand. Jan 15 2012 19:08. Posts 5647 | | |
| | On January 15 2012 09:28 Night2o1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 15 2012 03:27 Silver_nz wrote:
did you write it? it's very well written.
I think its on the right track in terms of the model of how people think it propses, but wrong enough to cause alot of damage if you stop at having just System1 and System2. There are miltiple interacting systems, feedback loops arranged hirachically.
PCT yo.
http://www.livingcontrolsystems.com/msob/content_msob.html |
yes I wrote it yesterday, thanks dude
I can't read the book in your link right now, but I've been really into learning more about the field through the work of Daniel K's magnum opus "Thinking Fast and Slow" , and through reading Nassim Taleb's "Fooled By Randomness" and "The Black Swan". They're all beautiful books and I highly HIGHLY recommend all three.. could start with any of them btw
--- I just took a look around the site and I can't seem to find any of their supporting research etc, it kind of looks like they are selling a motivational/way-to-live/self-help series of books more than doing any rigorous scientific inquiry -- just my first impressions from the About page, etc.
Still,
I'll take a closer look at your link this evening; PCT nor livingcontrolsystems have come up in anything I've read.
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dude, I was the one who gave you fooled by randomness to borrow in chiang mai
you are reading very 'pop' books, and they are good because they make you feel excited, but they are not a soild consistent model like PTC is. your thinking is inconsistent if you are looking for rigor and backup yet you are love taleb, who admits that his ideas are not based on anything other than logic and his experience. The book I linked to is a very easy to read intro for the not mathematical layman, so it may give of that vibe. if you wish to do math, try Behavior: The Control of Perception which is the textbook |
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| | Last edit: 15/01/2012 20:31 |
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I'll take a look today then
totally forgot about that coming from you, I remember the 59seconds book tho. o_O thanks
I know taleb's FBR and TBS are not rigorous, I am studying more math and stats so I can tackle the technical works he's posted on his website (and to be able to study other people's work as well ofc) |
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| | Last edit: 16/01/2012 11:20 |
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| | On January 15 2012 14:22 Ket wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 15 2012 09:28 Night2o1 wrote:
| | On January 15 2012 03:27 Silver_nz wrote:
did you write it? it's very well written.
I think its on the right track in terms of the model of how people think it propses, but wrong enough to cause alot of damage if you stop at having just System1 and System2. There are miltiple interacting systems, feedback loops arranged hirachically.
PCT yo.
http://www.livingcontrolsystems.com/msob/content_msob.html |
yes I wrote it yesterday, thanks dude
I can't read the book in your link right now, but I've been really into learning more about the field through the work of Daniel K's magnum opus "Thinking Fast and Slow" , and through reading Nassim Taleb's "Fooled By Randomness" and "The Black Swan". They're all beautiful books and I highly HIGHLY recommend all three.. could start with any of them btw
--- I just took a look around the site and I can't seem to find any of their supporting research etc, it kind of looks like they are selling a motivational/way-to-live/self-help series of books more than doing any rigorous scientific inquiry -- just my first impressions from the About page, etc.
Still,
I'll take a closer look at your link this evening; PCT nor livingcontrolsystems have come up in anything I've read.
|
First book that came to mind when I saw this thread was Blink by Malcom Gladwell.. probably covers a lot of the same topcs as the books on your list, which I have not read. Have you read Blink? Is it worth reading thinking fast and slow and the black swan if so? I think everything in Fooled by Randomness should be pretty lolduhobvious to an experienced poker player (also i didn't like the writer's selfimportant style of writing, look at me im so much smarter than finance geeks blah blah blah) |
Blink is on my reading list, I can't really compare them except that I know they cover similar stuff. /edit OK I bothered to re-read the summary of Blink. It actually sounds a bit different from TBS and TF&S.. Blink seems to be promoting the benefits and use of heuristics/shortcuts in thinking with a section on its weakneses, TBS is focused on the weaknesses of our natural thinking-styles, while TF&S is summarizing all/most(?) of the relevant the research and its immediate implications (and u take it from there as far as applying it to the world around u)
Fooled by randomness is kind of like the black swan introduction book. In TBS he starts breaking down his criticism against experts & forecasters into the components of psychology and the world that lead people to think they know more than they do, causing them to inappropriately underaccount for risk (or problem solve ineffectively), which leads them to forecast events badly.
I know what you mean by his writing style but its just.. his style, and how he makes the work accessible. He tones it down a lot in TBS IMO.
TF&S is not about finance, it is straight up psychology. This blog entry was me trying to compress the introduction and first chapter (the intro to the ideas of "System 1 & 2" . TF&S is an engaging rundown of the study of heuristics&bias, I think it'd be pretty impossible to finish the book without a better understanding of the way your and other people's minds work (not everything in the book will be a new idea to you, but you will now have references to empirical research to back it up). |
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| | Last edit: 16/01/2012 11:49 |
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Ket United Kingdom. Jan 16 2012 16:44. Posts 8665 | | |
Ok thanks for reply. Will check out tf&s when i have time |
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