You are sitting at the virtual felt of HIGH STAKES online poker vs some nits. So, with duct tape over our hole cards, you bet into a pot of money to try to win it. If the bet is half of the pot size, then the % of the time it at least has to work is the bet/ bet+pot: 33% of the time for a half pot bet: that's gosu. If they fold half the time you're rolling in cash.
And if its not on the river, then will have equity to suckout with the half pot bluff, would mean it needs to work even less often, 9% equity often meaning he has to fold only something like 25% of the time to a pot size bet.
Exercising the math-mind; Yea a bit simplified for starters, some hands I played:
Villian is a tight reg
Dealing to AR
Gummzo folds
Jozef folds
jandro11 folds
AR raises to $16
0800CASH folds
RayBan23 folds
AlanPartidge calls $16
Shergarr007 calls $16
nikola3 folds *** Dealing Flop ***
Shergarr007 checks
AR bets $32____________________- This bluff is 32 into 48 = 32/(48+32) = 40% of pot. Each needs to fold about 60%
AlanPartidge calls $32____________of the time to make a direct profit, however I have some backup equity. At least 9%
Shergarr007 folds _______________of the money that goes in: 9% of 144 = $12 BUT if he raises my bet this doesn't play *** Dealing Turn ***
AR bets $75_____________________-I see that the pot is $144, I choose to bluff $75 into it. 75/(144+75)= 34% of the
AlanPartidge calls $75____________time has to get a fold. If I had bet $100 would have been 40%. $50, only 25% *** Dealing River ***
AR checks______________________-Now on the river: could I bluff here? Pot is $296. Jam would be $277, needs about
AlanPartidge checks______________48%. betting smaller could fold out nearly as much of his range though: a bet of
Taking Rake of $3 from pot 1_______$75 would need to work 20% of the time – if he is a nit at heart, this could be EV+
AR shows
AR has Two Pairs: Queens, 10s
AlanPartidge shows
AlanPartidge has Two Pairs: Aces, Queens
AlanPartidge wins $263 with: Two Pairs: Aces, Queens
Will think combos in another post, here just calibrating my feel for pot odds.
This hand has a raise in it, which is slightly different to calculate the % needed to fold.
Villian is a reg who doesn't like to give up. FastE is spewy.
Dealing to AR
FastEddieTwo calls $4
Jozef folds
jandro11 calls $4
AR raises to $20
Gangstreet folds
AlanPartidge folds
Shergarr007 folds
nikola3 folds
hengkalousai folds
FastEddieTwo calls $20
jandro11 calls $20 *** Dealing Flop ***
FastEddieTwo bets $32
jandro11 calls $32_______________-Pot is $124, I risk $128 so fold freq $128/($124+$128) = 51% if jandro
AR raises to $128________________shoves I lose $96 more than in the case I call, but the times that they call here
jandro11 calls $128______________(often w these types of player) my bluff will only need to work *** Dealing Turn ***_($128 - ($340*18%)) / ($124+$128) = 26% - still alot for a 3way pot
jandro11 checks
AR bets $791.40 (all-in)_________-Shoving it in here he needs to fold 47% of his range. Is this the case? Would have to
jandro11 calls $311 (all-in)_______look at his turn peeling range and his getting-it-in range. OESD, other flushdraws,
____________________________perhaps marginals pairs might peel-fold. A calc for another time.
So these were very quick and simple, but just to give a grasp of fold freq %'s needed for different bluff sizes.
metal: a headbangers journey documentaryby whamm!, May 30
seems to be a cool docu while grindin' and shit
i like all kinds of metal, not that i love it or anything, but i occassionaly listen to it and it kinda relieves stress for some reason.
I have gotten my money in so far ahead on so many occasions it's beyond comprehension. 20 BI downswing? This is beatable? Everyone keeps ragging on me for moving up where they respect my raises, yet I consistently just run this bad for my entire poker career at micro stakes?
I stepped back for a moment earlier after losing the first 10 BI's and thought maybe, JUST MAYBE, it really was my fault. So I looked at like 2 hands but realized they were all suckouts, so I just decided to adjust my play to be a bit more exploitable but make my decisiions easier. Afterall it's rush and it's doubtful anyone is making many moves, at least at these stakes. I dropped my vpip from 24 to 18, and PFR from 18 to 10. Just a little more nitty passive is all.
I kinda like the new style, it's certainly easier, but I mean for gods sake what in the goddamn fuck? Personally I rather prefer winning 20-30BB pots over and over at NL200 than having idiots just spaz shove the turn and 3-6 outer me on the river with overcards. I mean, the numbers dont lie. Im puttin in some fuckin hands here and all I do is get sucked out on.
Hey, I was wondering if anybody is interested in helping a low limit player out. I am trying to get back into low limit SitNGos.
I am looking to play the $2 9 and 18 man games on FTP. If anybody is interested, PM me and we can talk about people I have talked to and any other requirements from the interested party.
If anyone is running eyefinity on games like COD:MW2 please send me a pm. I've pretty much set it up but still having a few problems that might need tweeking.
Also I think I need a new mouse because the max sensitivity on my regular Microsoft mouse isn't sufficient to move across 7680 x 1600, not a bad problem to have I guess.
need to get out of this site
this last session kinda nailed the coffin for me.
why did i even bother coming back to stars? lol
been running terrible after a good start, not winning a single session in about 10 but kept my composure and kept losses to a minimum and never tilted. i think my account was kissed by satan.
last session was only 68 hands, i slammed my table so hard with the kk vs aa while closing the session lol
i have like 215 tourney dollars, how much can i sell it for and who wants this?
i can do up to 8kplus but if no one transfers , i might just play 25nl forver at ftp or something and just withdraw and quit poker alredy, enough of this shit
Been crushing 100nl rush for the last couple days hardcore. I feel like the rush poker player pool is really weak compared to the normal tables, and since I can only 4-6 table normally i get a massive increase on my hands/hr. Seems good to me.
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to AR
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to AR
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***_($128 - ($340*18%)) / ($124+$128) = 26% - still alot for a 3way pot
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