Science suggests that telling people about your goals increases your chance of success.*
So:
In June I'll be on the grind. Shooting for a monetary goal:+ Show Spoiler +
$10k
Its concrete, and it incentivies me correctly: I must play Tip-top poker AND high volume to win this much in the month.
Variance is going to make it unachievable in some 30% of possible month-outcomes. So I expect to fail about 30% of the time just based on randomness. But its still the best type of goal I can imagine; for example, with a number-of-hands goal it's easy to autopilot and play pretty bad. Winrate over a certain sample goal is also apt to be abused. Are there any other kind of goals are there that are measurable; time dependant?
Anyway, obviously I'm wanting to sling mad volume and fat stack benjies, for this I need to whip up incredible focus: focus that will keep me keen to play, and focus that will keep me always thinking of how to make the most EV+ play.
I like to make concrete plans, and avoid anything with the wishy-washy weakness of “just trying harder” The plan for now: 1
Record in google calendar what I have done during the day. A kind of brief diary, this will be in the back of my mind when I am procrastinating by refresting LP and checking the ROFL thread for updates only to find another text post. If I waste half an hour pissing around, then I'm going to have to write that down: this does have a real damping effect on procrastiniation - I've done it before when studying. Also, by avoiding planning out my day in unreasonable detail, I avoid stressing myself when things don't go to plan, and I keep the power of freedom, which leads to efficiency.
It's easy to see if I have been keeping to this: a quick look through google calender will let me know if I am achieving laying this foundation subgoal. 2
Another key to my person getting as much cash out of the virtual felt as possible is an NLP concept: Frame control. This isn't some wishful thinking 'the secret' self-deception (thats been secentifically proven counter-effective). Its just means that I will be using whatever phrases on post-it notes, durrr challenge videos, aejones podcasts, neitzsche chapters, or nolan-blog-archive fire jams that will boost me up into that gritty prize-fighting state. When I sit down at the table, I want to be there to crush that specific guy sitting across from me, using all the information flowing from the table and the best concepts I have to maximise my winning.
An example frame is something like "I just bench pressed the world". I'll keep it flexible so it doesn't stale out on me. This is not a great subgoal because its not measurable, it's just something I will have to record how well I feel I am doing in G-calender: at least there will be a little specifying there. 3
Another prong is to have some social pressure to motivate me, and also to keep my ideas from flying off into la-la land. For the first week: posting articles, cardrunner-video-notes, concepts, session reviews and whatever else will improve my skill and schema. First week shapening the saw, then reduce to a post per week. Total ten posts over the month.
This is a specific subgoal, only trouble is that it's hard to pin down a measure for quality, number of words just leads to waffle. I guess something that takes about 3 minutes for the reader to get through.
OK, enough waffle. I Promise shorter and sweeter next time LP.
"I do not exhort you to work but to battle! I do not exhort you to peace but to victory. may your work be a battle! may your peace be a victory!"
* "Self-Reinfoircement effects: an artifact of social setting?" journal of applied behaviour analysis, vol 18, 1985
Well may ended up being I think my best month so far in 180's. Unfortunately I didn't put in nearly enough volume as I would like.. Oh well though atleast I ran good for my lil volume. Going to vegas next month not sure how long ill be there. Probably going to be playing a few venetians and maybe a 1k wsop I dunno I'll see. Its up to my staker though :D
I'm having to work 12 hour days every day at the burger bar I've started, but I was running out of money so I pulled an all-nighter, just like that. yay!
Been mixing NL10 and NL25 and I can't beat NL10 anymore for some reason, down around 80$ over 6k hands. Im doing well in NL25 though, up 290$ in just over 15k hands. Didn't play much due to my thesis and shit, and dont think ill be playing much more next month.
June goals:
- rape my upcomming finals
- rape NL25
my half year:
+5700
- 600 on another site
= about 5k total
2010 goals:
1. become a winning 200nl reg -> on track
2. make average 2k per month (24k) -> not on track, but still achievable
3. be taking shots at 400nl by end of year -> on track
4. get to c+ on iccup -> cannot login to iccup anymore, might be ip banned even though i've never hacked -_- fml
Anyone here play at Foxwoods regularly? I play 1/2nl and 2/5nl there fairly often and will be playing the memorial day tournaments (one of my friends offered to stake me). Was just wondering who else was gonna be there. I know a ton of people there and we could smoke / chill / discuss poker. Lemme know!
Here's Kanye's first single off his new album. I don't think it's finished cuz he sounds like a prepubescent teen to me. What do you think?
I play on a 17" laptop, so I play with the tables overlapping. It's very annoying most of the time. What size monitor do I need to get to not have any overlap.
I was planning on just ordering a monitor w/ FPPs. Has anyone done this before? If so, how long does the monitor take to ship?
Read my last blog post + comments. I didn't know of the results of the fight at that time and therefore was incapable of spoilers for anyone. That I happened to pick 2/3 or 3/4 was just luck. Thought it was obvious from context of "my picks" that I was making picks late without knowledge of who had won.
edit: I guess it is hard to read into the fact that I didn't know the results and was making picks. Sorry bros. Must have been shocked when + Show Spoiler +
That's right time for the world series of bloggin'
I'm actually pretty ecstatic right now. This is my 3rd WSOP and my first event of the 3rd year...and I finally made my first dinner break of a preliminary event. So yeah, that's pretty awesome. Along with my first dinner break, i made it to day 2 of the same tourney (Event 3 $1k). I'm short though, 20k going into 500-1,000. They cut through like 90% of the day 1a starting field i think so who knows where we're gonna be after day 1b plays through. I'll let you know after monday.
Online poker has been meh. 3rd'd a low scoop for 10k which didn't break me even on the series by far...AND i didn't get another one of those shiny watches...
You are sitting at the virtual felt of HIGH STAKES online poker vs some nits. So, with duct tape over our hole cards, you bet into a pot of money to try to win it. If the bet is half of the pot size, then the % of the time it at least has to work is the bet/ bet+pot: 33% of the time for a half pot bet: that's gosu. If they fold half the time you're rolling in cash.
And if its not on the river, then will have equity to suckout with the half pot bluff, would mean it needs to work even less often, 9% equity often meaning he has to fold only something like 25% of the time to a pot size bet.
Exercising the math-mind; Yea a bit simplified for starters, some hands I played:
Villian is a tight reg
Dealing to AR
Gummzo folds
Jozef folds
jandro11 folds
AR raises to $16
0800CASH folds
RayBan23 folds
AlanPartidge calls $16
Shergarr007 calls $16
nikola3 folds *** Dealing Flop ***
Shergarr007 checks
AR bets $32____________________- This bluff is 32 into 48 = 32/(48+32) = 40% of pot. Each needs to fold about 60%
AlanPartidge calls $32____________of the time to make a direct profit, however I have some backup equity. At least 9%
Shergarr007 folds _______________of the money that goes in: 9% of 144 = $12 BUT if he raises my bet this doesn't play *** Dealing Turn ***
AR bets $75_____________________-I see that the pot is $144, I choose to bluff $75 into it. 75/(144+75)= 34% of the
AlanPartidge calls $75____________time has to get a fold. If I had bet $100 would have been 40%. $50, only 25% *** Dealing River ***
AR checks______________________-Now on the river: could I bluff here? Pot is $296. Jam would be $277, needs about
AlanPartidge checks______________48%. betting smaller could fold out nearly as much of his range though: a bet of
Taking Rake of $3 from pot 1_______$75 would need to work 20% of the time – if he is a nit at heart, this could be EV+
AR shows
AR has Two Pairs: Queens, 10s
AlanPartidge shows
AlanPartidge has Two Pairs: Aces, Queens
AlanPartidge wins $263 with: Two Pairs: Aces, Queens
Will think combos in another post, here just calibrating my feel for pot odds.
This hand has a raise in it, which is slightly different to calculate the % needed to fold.
Villian is a reg who doesn't like to give up. FastE is spewy.
Dealing to AR
FastEddieTwo calls $4
Jozef folds
jandro11 calls $4
AR raises to $20
Gangstreet folds
AlanPartidge folds
Shergarr007 folds
nikola3 folds
hengkalousai folds
FastEddieTwo calls $20
jandro11 calls $20 *** Dealing Flop ***
FastEddieTwo bets $32
jandro11 calls $32_______________-Pot is $124, I risk $128 so fold freq $128/($124+$128) = 51% if jandro
AR raises to $128________________shoves I lose $96 more than in the case I call, but the times that they call here
jandro11 calls $128______________(often w these types of player) my bluff will only need to work *** Dealing Turn ***_($128 - ($340*18%)) / ($124+$128) = 26% - still alot for a 3way pot
jandro11 checks
AR bets $791.40 (all-in)_________-Shoving it in here he needs to fold 47% of his range. Is this the case? Would have to
jandro11 calls $311 (all-in)_______look at his turn peeling range and his getting-it-in range. OESD, other flushdraws,
____________________________perhaps marginals pairs might peel-fold. A calc for another time.
So these were very quick and simple, but just to give a grasp of fold freq %'s needed for different bluff sizes.
metal: a headbangers journey documentaryby whamm!, May 30
seems to be a cool docu while grindin' and shit
i like all kinds of metal, not that i love it or anything, but i occassionaly listen to it and it kinda relieves stress for some reason.
I have gotten my money in so far ahead on so many occasions it's beyond comprehension. 20 BI downswing? This is beatable? Everyone keeps ragging on me for moving up where they respect my raises, yet I consistently just run this bad for my entire poker career at micro stakes?
I stepped back for a moment earlier after losing the first 10 BI's and thought maybe, JUST MAYBE, it really was my fault. So I looked at like 2 hands but realized they were all suckouts, so I just decided to adjust my play to be a bit more exploitable but make my decisiions easier. Afterall it's rush and it's doubtful anyone is making many moves, at least at these stakes. I dropped my vpip from 24 to 18, and PFR from 18 to 10. Just a little more nitty passive is all.
I kinda like the new style, it's certainly easier, but I mean for gods sake what in the goddamn fuck? Personally I rather prefer winning 20-30BB pots over and over at NL200 than having idiots just spaz shove the turn and 3-6 outer me on the river with overcards. I mean, the numbers dont lie. Im puttin in some fuckin hands here and all I do is get sucked out on.
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to AR
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to AR
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***_($128 - ($340*18%)) / ($124+$128) = 26% - still alot for a 3way pot
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