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... So today sucked some royal ass. Started off the day early and played a session that lasted 2 hours and came out of it down $450. Then after my nap and a work out I kicked up another session and managed to lose another $500 all at NL200. Like wtf... I think this picture sums up what I'm feeling:


Playing E-Poker at Hollywood Park

Notice how I'm still smiling? I'm pretty sure I was stuck like $300 all to Daut and Lyric at the time this picture was taken. This about sums up my feeling of fake wonderfulness. I feel like jumping into oncoming traffic.

On another note, I'd like to take this time to point out how bad carrotsnake is at poker. Why do people at twoplustwo think this guy is the God of NL200 on Stars?

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/168605 <-- Calls a 4 bet all-in with AJo
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/168604 <-- Retard bluff vs a total aggro donk. What does he expect the guy to fold? LOL...

This guy is so stupid it hurts my head. If you think he's good or hard to play against, your probably not too good yourself. There is no way this guy wins at the winrate he claims on the twoplustwo forums.

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I'm in a nasty downswing in both 6-max and FR 10NL. Basically I'm looking for some advice on how to get my confidence back. Also, if I want to watch movies on dual monitors while I nutpeddle, FR is better than 6-max correct?

0 votes

Comments (12)

When I first saw this hand I immediately thought it was the worst call I had ever seen. However, the more I think about it the more interesting the hand gets. For those of you who havent seen or heard about this hand, it came up in the monte carlo tournament a few days ago. Here was the spot:

Patrick Antonius makes it 1k from the cutoff. Adam makes it 3.2k from the button and Antonius makes it 9k. Adam calls. Flop: Qc 2s 4c Patrick moves in for 34.5k. The break has just happened, but a crowd is developing around the table as only the two players remain seated. Adam keeps staring intently at Patrick, checking his chips, it'll cost most of his stack to call. Patrick sits impassively. Finally, eyes still focused on Patrick, Adam pushes the 34.5k into the pot, and Patrick visibly loses the colour out of his face as he flips over 3c 5s . Adam turns over first the Ac, then....the Jd ! Everyone including Patrick manages a double take. I hear people shocked, yet still somehow impressed at the call. Turn: 8s River: As Patrik raked a ~90k pot with a straight.

So as I said it came off as a bad call at first. I did a quick analysis on how adam does against a sample hand range of patrik's.

We are getting roughly 1.5:1 odds but a little bit better, so lets say we need 39% equity.

If we assume that patrik has air here 20%, a draw (clubs, gutshot, oesd etc) 30% and a monster (set/AA/KK) 50% then we get the following.

Suppose against air that Junglen has on average 75% equity. This fair because if patrik has 2 live cards hes about 25% and sometimes he has adam dominated (AK), sometimes adam has patrik dominated. but I have trouble beliving that patrik will often just shove hands like 68o where he missed completely, so i think 20% of the time is a generous estimate here.

Now, against a draw, lets say that adam has 50% equity on average. This is also fair because some big draws are more than 50% vs adam(like 56cc) and some gutshots are a bit under.

And against a monster, lets say adam has on average 8% equity. sometimes he will have a little more if patrik has KK, sometimes he will be murdered against a set, sometimes patrik will have AQ, whatever, 7% is fairly accurate.

ok, now his ev given these assumptions is .2*.75+.3*.5+.5*.08=.15+.15+.04=.34
34% equity. This is not good, in fact its quite -EV. If we adjust the hand range a bit to include more air and less monsters perhaps we can convince ourselves that adam has CLOSE to enough quity against patrik's range. (this would require a very very very good read because adam is getting very bad odds and patrik will often show a good hand here)

Now, let's backstep a bit before i continue.


I think the call preflop is terrible. Here is adam's quote on the situation, right after it happened:

His range for 3-betting preflop is so wide...When I called the 6k extra I was trapping. I don't care, I've played 10k comps before, his move in was a scared bet, I'd have probably called with King high.

how exactly do you trap with AJo? you dont hit flops often enough and when you dont you arent even certain of where you stand. It's a total reverse implied odds situation. I think that the call preflop is atrocious, and if he really thought his range was that wide, he should shove. he would be risking roughly 41k to win 14k, and he gets folds more than enough to make this a very good play (much much much more EV than calling here even though he has position). I wont bother running the EV calculations but I assure you this is very +EV if patrik is calling with say AA KK QQ JJ AK and is putting in a 3rd raise about 10% of the time (which would mean he is calling 1/3 the time and folding 2/3 the time). Ok, just for you guys ill run the damn EV calculation

Let's say that patrik calls the all in 33% and folds 67%. when he calls, AJo has 25% equity against that range.

.67*14=9.38 (when he folds we win 14k)
.33*(.75*-41+.25*48)=.33*(-30.75+12)=.33*-18.75=-6.25

so our EV of shoving here is over 3k. very very good.

I'll also add in that folding to this 4bet is just fine as well. Nothing wrong with it, havent risked a lot, AJo isnt all that strong. And it's also ok toflat cal with AJo in position here.


ok, back to where i was. now, suppose that we can convince ourselves that Adam almost has enough equity against patrik's range but it is still -EV to call. I think if we have a good enough read to convince ourselves of this it becomes a call postflop for the following 3 reasons.

1. we have a chance to knockout the best player in the world
2. we will have a big chip stack which we will be able to take advantage of because....
3. Everyone at the table will utterly fear us.

Imagine how scared the average poker player would be of a guy who just bitched the best player in the world and now has a stack. If he could have a 100k stack after this move, its at a point in the tournament where nobody will fuck with him and he can just run everyone over and build a monster stack in the next few hours. It would have such profitable aftereffects that I think having a slight -EV situation is overcome with ease.

The question becomes how -EV are we willing to go in order to still take this gamble? Unfortunately that isnt quantifiable, but I would guess that its around 35% equity, a little bit higher than I came up with in my EV calculation.

Now, note that I said i was giving patrik a generous range, and I still think that. I just dont see how we can assume he has air or a draw here much more than that, I would usually assume much less, but for the sake of argument i gave adam the benefit of the doubt in his read. perhaps adam was a little more sure of this and could push it into the 35%+ range. Then although it's still a -EV call, i say great move.


Kid's sure got balls to pull something like this. I still think the preflop call is atrocious, but after a lot of thought I have come to appreciate this postflop call. he gets my gold star award for the week, mainly because its the manliest call of all time, he obviously has some Bryan Van Dautsend blood in him to make patrik say matte.

2 votes

Comments (5)

When I first saw this hand I immediately thought it was the worst call I had ever seen. However, the more I think about it the more interesting the hand gets. For those of you who havent seen or heard about this hand, it came up in the monte carlo tournament a few days ago. Here was the spot:

Patrick Antonius makes it 1k from the cutoff. Adam makes it 3.2k from the button and Antonius makes it 9k. Adam calls. Flop: Qc 2s 4c Patrick moves in for 34.5k. The break has just happened, but a crowd is developing around the table as only the two players remain seated. Adam keeps staring intently at Patrick, checking his chips, it'll cost most of his stack to call. Patrick sits impassively. Finally, eyes still focused on Patrick, Adam pushes the 34.5k into the pot, and Patrick visibly loses the colour out of his face as he flips over 3c 5s . Adam turns over first the Ac, then....the Jd ! Everyone including Patrick manages a double take. I hear people shocked, yet still somehow impressed at the call. Turn: 8s River: As Patrik raked a ~90k pot with a straight.

So as I said it came off as a bad call at first. I did a quick analysis on how adam does against a sample hand range of patrik's.

We are getting roughly 1.5:1 odds but a little bit better, so lets say we need 39% equity.

If we assume that patrik has air here 20%, a draw (clubs, gutshot, oesd etc) 30% and a monster (set/AA/KK) 50% then we get the following.

Suppose against air that Junglen has on average 75% equity. This fair because if patrik has 2 live cards hes about 25% and sometimes he has adam dominated (AK), sometimes adam has patrik dominated. but I have trouble beliving that patrik will often just shove hands like 68o where he missed completely, so i think 20% of the time is a generous estimate here.

Now, against a draw, lets say that adam has 50% equity on average. This is also fair because some big draws are more than 50% vs adam(like 56cc) and some gutshots are a bit under.

And against a monster, lets say adam has on average 8% equity. sometimes he will have a little more if patrik has KK, sometimes he will be murdered against a set, sometimes patrik will have AQ, whatever, 7% is fairly accurate.

ok, now his ev given these assumptions is .2*.75+.3*.5+.5*.08=.15+.15+.04=.34
34% equity. This is not good, in fact its quite -EV. If we adjust the hand range a bit to include more air and less monsters perhaps we can convince ourselves that adam has CLOSE to enough quity against patrik's range. (this would require a very very very good read because adam is getting very bad odds and patrik will often show a good hand here)

Now, let's backstep a bit before i continue.


I think the call preflop is terrible. Here is adam's quote on the situation, right after it happened:

His range for 3-betting preflop is so wide...When I called the 6k extra I was trapping. I don't care, I've played 10k comps before, his move in was a scared bet, I'd have probably called with King high.

how exactly do you trap with AJo? you dont hit flops often enough and when you dont you arent even certain of where you stand. It's a total reverse implied odds situation. I think that the call preflop is atrocious, and if he really thought his range was that wide, he should shove. he would be risking roughly 41k to win 14k, and he gets folds more than enough to make this a very good play (much much much more EV than calling here even though he has position). I wont bother running the EV calculations but I assure you this is very +EV if patrik is calling with say AA KK QQ JJ AK and is putting in a 3rd raise about 10% of the time (which would mean he is calling 1/3 the time and folding 2/3 the time). Ok, just for you guys ill run the damn EV calculation

Let's say that patrik calls the all in 33% and folds 67%. when he calls, AJo has 25% equity against that range.

.67*14=9.38 (when he folds we win 14k)
.33*(.75*-41+.25*48)=.33*(-30.75+12)=.33*-18.75=-6.25

so our EV of shoving here is over 3k. very very good.

I'll also add in that folding to this 4bet is just fine as well. Nothing wrong with it, havent risked a lot, AJo isnt all that strong. And it's also ok toflat cal with AJo in position here.


ok, back to where i was. now, suppose that we can convince ourselves that Adam almost has enough equity against patrik's range but it is still -EV to call. I think if we have a good enough read to convince ourselves of this it becomes a call postflop for the following 3 reasons.

1. we have a chance to knockout the best player in the world
2. we will have a big chip stack which we will be able to take advantage of because....
3. Everyone at the table will utterly fear us.

Imagine how scared the average poker player would be of a guy who just bitched the best player in the world and now has a stack. If he could have a 100k stack after this move, its at a point in the tournament where nobody will fuck with him and he can just run everyone over and build a monster stack in the next few hours. It would have such profitable aftereffects that I think having a slight -EV situation is overcome with ease.

The question becomes how -EV are we willing to go in order to still take this gamble? Unfortunately that isnt quantifiable, but I would guess that its around 35% equity, a little bit higher than I came up with in my EV calculation.

Now, note that I said i was giving patrik a generous range, and I still think that. I just dont see how we can assume he has air or a draw here much more than that, I would usually assume much less, but for the sake of argument i gave adam the benefit of the doubt in his read. perhaps adam was a little more sure of this and could push it into the 35%+ range. Then although it's still a -EV call, i say great move.


Kid's sure got balls to pull something like this. I still think the preflop call is atrocious, but after a lot of thought I have come to appreciate this postflop call. he gets my gold star award for the week, mainly because its the manliest call of all time, he obviously has some Bryan Van Dautsend blood in him to make patrik say matte.

2 votes

Comments (5)

LOL... Here is my chip stack while I was playing NL at the Bike about a month back.



Was it good for you too?

3 votes

Comments (16)

LOL... Here is my chip stack while I was playing NL at the Bike about a month back.



Was it good for you too?

3 votes

Comments (16)

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...?Cat=0&Number=9800837&an=&page=0&vc=1

It's a pretty good read, although I dont really grasp how exactly he got his edge % calculation. Basically all you need is a SQL database from your PokerTracker, and then there is some info in that thread that can show you by how much of a % you are beating the game.

Here's an example from Lyric's own database since he beats 5/10 at 1.78% (which is rather good even thou it sounds small). He states: Here is the expected variance for a 1.78% edge over 32K hands. None of these outcomes would be anything but completely ordinary for my edge/skill level. This is pretty sick considering 32K hands is about 10 months of playing live poker full time:



Note: The edge percentage is calculated using the total amount "bet," and but not necessarily put at risk. So it's not accurate in cases where you push all-in for $1,000 and your opponent only has $63 in front of him. In that case you'd still be counted as "risking" $1,000 when in fact you only risked $63. Not perfect, but a pretty fancy guess.

Pretty interesting stuff. So now I'm trying to figure out how I get mine. If you dont know who Lyric is, he's the guy who made DonkeyTest / The Poker IQ Test (http://www.donkeytest.com).

2 votes

Comments (5)

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...?Cat=0&Number=9800837&an=&page=0&vc=1

It's a pretty good read, although I dont really grasp how exactly he got his edge % calculation. Basically all you need is a SQL database from your PokerTracker, and then there is some info in that thread that can show you by how much of a % you are beating the game.

Here's an example from Lyric's own database since he beats 5/10 at 1.78% (which is rather good even thou it sounds small). He states: Here is the expected variance for a 1.78% edge over 32K hands. None of these outcomes would be anything but completely ordinary for my edge/skill level. This is pretty sick considering 32K hands is about 10 months of playing live poker full time:



Note: The edge percentage is calculated using the total amount "bet," and but not necessarily put at risk. So it's not accurate in cases where you push all-in for $1,000 and your opponent only has $63 in front of him. In that case you'd still be counted as "risking" $1,000 when in fact you only risked $63. Not perfect, but a pretty fancy guess.

Pretty interesting stuff. So now I'm trying to figure out how I get mine. If you dont know who Lyric is, he's the guy who made DonkeyTest / The Poker IQ Test (http://www.donkeytest.com).

2 votes

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Ok so I decided for April I'll prolly keep my blog updated a little bit more. Why? I dont know... I just got a lot of free time so I might as well. March was a pretty decent month for me. I felt that I had really good game selection for most of the month, as I constantly tagged all the fish I came across and tracked them for multiple days. Towards the end of the month I started to get a little lazy on that part and was playing some of the regulars heads up (probably not the smartest of things to do, but I didn't do so bad vs most of them).

March 2007:


March PT Stats:


Not really sure what job I'm going to be getting in the near future that will net me a $137/hr pay wage... God the real world is going to be sick hard to get back into. LOL whatever. 2+2 made some thread about regulars at NL200 on PokerStars and FullTilt. Enjoyed reading some of their lists... most of them were very laughable. I'm not going to give out my donkey/fish list caz that would be just silly but I'll give my insight on people some of you new NL200 6-max guys should avoid at PokerStars.

ZeKGB - Seems pretty tough, knows what he's doing most of the time, and plays a good semi-LAG at 26/20.

sputnik3000 - Very solid and tight player. Almost never makes a move in marginal spots, yet somehow still gets people to pay him off for every big hand. How does he do it? I have no clue... and I dont think he will be getting nearly as much action when people start to figure out how big of a nit he is. But until then, he's one of the better ones.

Colombo218 - I think he's some high stakes player that busted his bankroll and moved down for a week to rebuild at 1/2. Pretty sick hard to play against, although he seems to have tilt problems.

FrinkX - The real deal, kid doesn't take shit. Spews at times, but that is quickly made up by the fact that he gets people to spew harder to him. Very uncomfortable to play out of position.

SmokedYou - Solid player. He makes very good value bets as well. Seems not to ever be out of line, never to tilt, and that's pretty key at NL200.

goose58 - I use to think he was really bad. Recently I think he's improved a great deal, or he was just running bad the first couple times I played him. He's really aggressive, but for the most part he just looks more aggro then he really is.

actionDJ - My boy Derric is a smart kid. Nothing out of the ordinary, pretty ABC. Never tilts, rarely spews, reads people very well. And again, if you have those very simple things down, your usually a big winner at NL200.

seannolan - Seany is very very very very good. Once he plays 1/2 some more, I believe he'll be one of the top winning regulars easily. He constantly makes it hard on people to play out of position against him. Has good tilt control.

DF_Newb - Seems to be a strong TAG player. The funny thing is, he's one of the bigger losers on my PT for the month of March, but mainly caz he's just running like horse shit. I'm pretty sure he plays better than 95% of the NL200 players on stars thou.

kmoney - He just took me to school so hard the other day. ZOMG. This guy is very aggressive in position, and to top it off, he makes some SIIICCK value shoves which leads me to believe he can get pretty strong reads on players. He's capable of making big bluffs as well, so he's very difficult to play against.

I'm probably missing out on a couple others, but those were the ones that came off the top of my head.

2 votes

Comments (5)

Ok so I decided for April I'll prolly keep my blog updated a little bit more. Why? I dont know... I just got a lot of free time so I might as well. March was a pretty decent month for me. I felt that I had really good game selection for most of the month, as I constantly tagged all the fish I came across and tracked them for multiple days. Towards the end of the month I started to get a little lazy on that part and was playing some of the regulars heads up (probably not the smartest of things to do, but I didn't do so bad vs most of them).

March 2007:


March PT Stats:


Not really sure what job I'm going to be getting in the near future that will net me a $137/hr pay wage... God the real world is going to be sick hard to get back into. LOL whatever. 2+2 made some thread about regulars at NL200 on PokerStars and FullTilt. Enjoyed reading some of their lists... most of them were very laughable. I'm not going to give out my donkey/fish list caz that would be just silly but I'll give my insight on people some of you new NL200 6-max guys should avoid at PokerStars.

ZeKGB - Seems pretty tough, knows what he's doing most of the time, and plays a good semi-LAG at 26/20.

sputnik3000 - Very solid and tight player. Almost never makes a move in marginal spots, yet somehow still gets people to pay him off for every big hand. How does he do it? I have no clue... and I dont think he will be getting nearly as much action when people start to figure out how big of a nit he is. But until then, he's one of the better ones.

Colombo218 - I think he's some high stakes player that busted his bankroll and moved down for a week to rebuild at 1/2. Pretty sick hard to play against, although he seems to have tilt problems.

FrinkX - The real deal, kid doesn't take shit. Spews at times, but that is quickly made up by the fact that he gets people to spew harder to him. Very uncomfortable to play out of position.

SmokedYou - Solid player. He makes very good value bets as well. Seems not to ever be out of line, never to tilt, and that's pretty key at NL200.

goose58 - I use to think he was really bad. Recently I think he's improved a great deal, or he was just running bad the first couple times I played him. He's really aggressive, but for the most part he just looks more aggro then he really is.

actionDJ - My boy Derric is a smart kid. Nothing out of the ordinary, pretty ABC. Never tilts, rarely spews, reads people very well. And again, if you have those very simple things down, your usually a big winner at NL200.

seannolan - Seany is very very very very good. Once he plays 1/2 some more, I believe he'll be one of the top winning regulars easily. He constantly makes it hard on people to play out of position against him. Has good tilt control.

DF_Newb - Seems to be a strong TAG player. The funny thing is, he's one of the bigger losers on my PT for the month of March, but mainly caz he's just running like horse shit. I'm pretty sure he plays better than 95% of the NL200 players on stars thou.

kmoney - He just took me to school so hard the other day. ZOMG. This guy is very aggressive in position, and to top it off, he makes some SIIICCK value shoves which leads me to believe he can get pretty strong reads on players. He's capable of making big bluffs as well, so he's very difficult to play against.

I'm probably missing out on a couple others, but those were the ones that came off the top of my head.

2 votes

Comments (5)

Shitty session.... -4 BI took a few tough beats and made 1 or 2 stupid calls.

Oh well ;/

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2 votes

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I decided to move up to 100nl with 26.
These past 2 days have been crazy. Mad action... I dont know if its goood or bad since i just moved up.
but so far so good. Players are more aggressive and pay more attention to whats going on but I still see the same old shit basically, fucked up plays... lots of hope to be succesful.


some intresting hands so far:
A-hig wins:
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/165406
Sweet!
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/166530
Mother FUCKER!!#!@!
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/166535

1 votes

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So my wrist has been killing me lately. It's mainly from the desk I have at school where I play poker, my wrist is always placed in an awkward position when im using the mouse.

I went to circuit city to get something to make it more comfortable to play poker. I found this soft little bag that I put behind my mouse that i rest my hand on, pretty much perfect.

So i'm walking to check out when I see the movie section. I decide to walk through and see if there's anything I want.

I hit the jackpot. I only find the most inspirational movie of my childhood........BLOODSPORT.




I've watched it 2 times since buying it already. Only a real man can make a bad mother fucker like chong li say matte.

Between this and aba's blog post about how hes going to play less tables, review hands after each session, stop browsing the internet and such have really inspired me.

Forget Patrik Dautonius. He's a mere mortal. Meet Bryan Van Dautsend.




Part Aba. part Van Damme. Part me. Combining the best of all 3 to create the ultimate male. GG World.

9 votes

Comments (12)

So my wrist has been killing me lately. It's mainly from the desk I have at school where I play poker, my wrist is always placed in an awkward position when im using the mouse.

I went to circuit city to get something to make it more comfortable to play poker. I found this soft little bag that I put behind my mouse that i rest my hand on, pretty much perfect.

So i'm walking to check out when I see the movie section. I decide to walk through and see if there's anything I want.

I hit the jackpot. I only find the most inspirational movie of my childhood........BLOODSPORT.




I've watched it 2 times since buying it already. Only a real man can make a bad mother fucker like chong li say matte.

Between this and aba's blog post about how hes going to play less tables, review hands after each session, stop browsing the internet and such have really inspired me.

Forget Patrik Dautonius. He's a mere mortal. Meet Bryan Van Dautsend.




Part Aba. part Van Damme. Part me. Combining the best of all 3 to create the ultimate male. GG World.

9 votes

Comments (12)