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complex EV calc
  Smuft, Oct 01 2015

I'll try to tackle this later (if someone doesnt beat me to it) but wanted to repost it here before it's forgotten in the HH section graveyard


  On October 01 2015 01:57 TianYuan wrote:
Show nested quote +

You don't think this is double AA a huge amount of the time if this is two .5/1 regs? And even if it's 2 randos, one of them probably has AA and the other guy likely has a really stupid hand which either fucks us or helps us about an equal amount of the time.

I think it should be OK between the deep stack possibly 4b folding, good equity in the main pot and fine equity in sidepot... But I'll be honest and say I haven't done much work on spots like these with different stacksizes involved <_<

I'm honestly not sure how to calc this, since we need to know how often we'll win the sidepot when we lose the mainpot, right? And I dont know a way of finding this out... I've got things setup to calc ev of multiway semi-bluffs which is similar to this spot but not identical...

If we do it really, really basic... Giving the 100bb stack a range of AA,KK$ds and double suited 5-span connected hands (this is fairly loose but it's an assumption that hurts us so I don't think that's a bad thing), which leaves him with AA a bit under 1/3 of the time (29% but for simplicity)... Meaning on average our equity in the sidepot vs deepstack is 47% and 34.6 in the main.

(0.3463*(200) + (0.6537*(-85) = 13.69
0.53*(-152.5) + (0.47*(+152.5) = -9.15
= +4.54

But I feel like this is a gross oversimplification and if anyone wants to share how to properly calc the EV of this (multiway, varying stacksizes, how often we win mainpot but lose sidepot etc) I'd be grateful.

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Comments (9)

EV math help
  Smuft, Jun 11 2015

if we XR the flop and bet the turn with the intention of bluffing the river every time, what combination of turn/river calling frequencies create a profitable bluff?

Let's look at a common BB v BTN XR scenario:

2.5x pre so 5.5bb to the flop

2.75bb cbet and XR to 10.5bb, villain calls

26.5bb to the turn, 88.5bb remaining

now the stack sizes are kind of awkward to get it all in by the river without some slight overbets but w/e we'll use the sizings commonly seen in practice

turn barrel 20bb, villain calls

66.5bb to the river, 68.5bb remaining

Pot'ish sized shove for 68.5bb

let's say villain folds 30% of the time on the turn and 50% of the time on the river, is this a profitable 0 equity bluff?

0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.5(46.5) - 0.5(88.5))

= -6.75 (pretty sure this is right, confirmed w/ representative scenario in CREV)

So a 0 equity bluff with those conditions is not profitable, lets say our bluff has 10% equity. So we plan to shove all rivers as a bluff and lose 90% of the time when called and win 10% when called, whats our EV now?

0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.5(46.5) + 0.5(0.1(135) - 0.9(88.5)))

= 1.0725 (not so sure about this one, the represntative scenario i came up with in CREV says 0.37... not sure if i setup the CREV scenario wrong or if this EV math is wrong)

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Comments (16)

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