Redhead's blog

Daut on HSP?

I think I basicly got the link right and it's basicly some dude and daut who wants to be on HSP and some other dude who said he'd stake Daut for 50% or so. That would be so cool and I think that we should find a nice E-mail to the producers and spam them untill they beg Daut to be on it.

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Today I hit 2k and moved up to NL100 again. People are really fucking bad on NL100 on unibet and even though I don’t think I’ve adjusted that well just yet I’m pretty sure that I’ve got an edge. I’m up about 77 USD after about one hour for 4 tabling and then I got outdrawn kinda hard, played a few hands bad and ran into people that reraised me allin when I reraised them pf a lot. One dude said he pushed TT vs my strong reraise with QQ pf for about 100bb but I’m pretty sure he lied. I would’ve called with KK there but I just don’t think I’ve got enough equity vs his range there to call even though I got about 2:3 to call. He need to push something like TT+,AK and I just don’t think I can put an unknown on that range, even though he kinda sucked.

Here’s a few hands:

Losers:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/152144 <- Suck that he outdrew me but and I need to learn how to reload between hands on prima.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/152145 <- Probably stupid.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/152148 <- I hate shortstacks
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/152150 <- - “I had TT” -”yea right”

Winners:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/152152 <- LOL

I also won a bunch of 50bb pots and stuff that wasn’t really anything special.

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LOL I can't spell for shit.



So I've played far to few hands, simply because I havn't had enough much time. I ran good during most of january and then a hit a little downswing and I've basicly not been able to get back into "crazy-win-mode" since then. I think that my pf-ranges are probably far superior to most people on unibet, most of them are nitty as fuck (>10 pfr is common), but I've still got some big leaks in my post flop play. I tend to pay people off too much and I'm not valuebetting enough. I also run some big stupid bluffs sometimes and I "semi-tilt" sometimes.

My vpip has been very big from time to time but during the last few K hands I've been running at about 22/18 which I think is probably pretty decent. My flop aggression is useally around 6 but the turn and river aggro is below 2, which I think is pretty bad. It might be that I get into multipots a lot with weak holdings (checking from blinds and such) but overall I think I should try to get them a little higher. It's probably just that I don't valuebet enough. I'd like to get my total AF to around 5 at least during mars.

Goals for march:

Be more aggressive
Stop being a POW
Valuebet more
At least 30k hands

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A word of warning

The stock market is gambling and you shouldn’t put money you can’t lose into it. Anyway, here's part two of my little article and here I've got a few idea about companies you should check out if you're intressted

Stuff I like

[/b]Oil[/b]

Lundin Petroleum (LUPE.SAX)

A Swedish oil company with some intressting projects in Sudan and Russia. If either of those hit big they’ll probably gain a lot since they are down about 25% the last 3 months due to a few set backs. The drilling in Russia got slowed down by technical difficulties and then the winter came which postponed the drilling untill sometime this spring. A russian company drilled next to this sector last year and found a really big source of oil and since the geological stuff seems pretty much the same the expectations should be pretty high here. You can read a bit about it here http://www.lundin-petroleum.com/eng/operation_russia.php#Lagansky and here http://www.scandoil.com/moxie/news/drilling/valkyries-prepares-to-dri.shtml (Valkyries is now a part of Lundin Oil). The Sudan thingy is probably a bit higher risk because of the tendency of the lokal population to kill each other. It’s basicly a pain in the ass to work there, but if it calms down this one could be really big too. I’ve got some money in this company and I think that it’ll probably work out well since the oil price historcly is very low in february but gets higher later in the year and if the Lagansky thingy and/or the Sudan stuff works out as it should we can be in for a really fun ride. But on the other hands, it could get fucked up too.

Uranium

As of december 2006, we had 435 reactors in the world with 28 under construction, 64 more planned and over 150 proposed. Some expert says that we’ll need between 100 and 500 new reactors untill 2030. Right now the price of uranium is really high and is getting higher, due to a flooding in the Cigar Lake complex, a site owned by Cameco that was expected to deliver a decent part of the world production from 2008, and the fact that most of the current production is tied up to long term contracts makes it unlikely that the price will drop anytime soon. Sprott Secutities has spectulated that this will take something along the lines of 5 to 7 years before the prices drops to somewhere around 50 USD/ibs.

SXR URANIUM ONE INC (SXR.TO)

A big ass uranium company that will get some nice production volumes soon. Thay’re up a fair bit the last few months but if the uranium price continues to rise they’ll probably be on of the companies that’ll get the most out of it.

UR-ENERGY INC (URE.TO)

<3. A company with a uranium sites at a few locations in North America. I’ve got some money in it and it has worked out fine so far. The problem is that since they did race a bit the last week they’re probably a bit overvalued in relation to some other uranium companies. I’m not sure about that though, I’ll keep them for a few months or so I think, maybe more.

DENISON MINING CORP (DML.TO)

I don’t know that much about these guys except that it’s the Lundin family that’s behind them. I love the lundin family and they’re responsible for a lot of my profit in the stock market, I’ll be sure to check them out and if I find anything remotly to my liking this may be the next thing I’ll get into my portfolio.

Mining

VENA RESOURCES INC (VEM.V)

Mining and uranium in Peru, they’ve got a really nice deal with Cameco (the worlds biggest uranium producer) and a really nice management group. I have about 2k invested in this company and so far they’re done really well.

Lundin Mining (LUMI.SAX)

The Lundin family’s mining company. The price is farily low and it’s a well managed company as far as I can tell. Not really that intressting, but probably a nice addition to a mining portfolio.

TENKE MINING CORP (TNK.TO)

Sick coppar resources in Afrika. I thought they’d do good but nothing has really happends since the hype last summer.

NEW GUINEA GOLD CORPORATION (NGG.V)

Problably a good company as long as the gold price is this high. I don’t know much about them but it’s one of those companies I’d like to buy some stocks in.

Other companies that I don’t know much about but might be worth checking out

Oil

West Siberian Resources Ltd

Tanganyika Oil Company Ltd (STO:TYKS)

Uranium

PALADIN RESOURCES LTD (PDN.TO)

Uranium Resources Inc. (URRE.OB)

POWERTECH URANIUM CORP (PWE.V) <- SXR might buy them

URASIA ENERGY LTD (UUU.V)

Mining

LIBERTY MINES INC. (LBE.V)
Northland Resources Inc. (NAU.V)
Adanac Moly (AUA.V) <- I don’t know that much about it but it might be very cool.

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"Show me a good loser and I'll show you a loser" or what the heck that smart dude said. Well, today I'm a happy loser. I'm down about half a buyin but I've actually played really good. A few coolers and not that many good hands but I think I lost the minimum and won the most on most hands. Maybe I should've laid down a set vs a obvious flush but I was getting like 1:3 odds so it didn't really feel that great. Also, I'm up like 1k USD on zee stockz market the last month or so :D

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I havn’t been playing as much as I should lately and even if I’ve been winning a little of money and feel that I’m much better then most people on my limit I don’t find it as fun as it used to be. I’m trying to grind my roll back to NL100-shape but that will take a week or two and I’m a bit annoyed with myself. I get emotionally indifferent to the game a bit more then before, and that’s probably good, but I don’t really feel the urge to play either. I’ll probably just take a day or two off and study a lot, but if someone has any tips on how to get the will to play back it’d be great if you guys could share it.

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Make monies with monies. Part 1

I made a post on my blog about the stock market and what I’ve invested in the 19th of february and within a hour or so 2 posters said that they wanted to learn more about it. I’m far from an expert and I’ll write about my background soon enough but first of all I’d like to say that I think that this is very +ev and a good way to increase one’s profit. It’s natrually not free money or anything, and it’s most certainly a form of gambling, but I’m still a firm believer that one could make some extra money on this. It’s basicly poker but in a way less time-consuming then card playing. You will have to read a lot if you want to do good, but you don’t have to sit endless hours in front of your computer to make good money. All in all, it’s a good side-income and the chance of getting better intrest then if you keep your money on the bank is pretty good.

My background

My father and uncle have been playing around a bit on the stock market for a long time. My uncle is basicly into a lot of gamblingish thingys and is still, at an age well over 70, running a somewhat successful small company, is a winning gambler when it comes to horse racing and has enough money on in the stock market so that the bank appointed him a special man to call when he wants to buy or sell anything. Unlike some other parts of my family, he thought that it was “sick cool” that I made money on poker and wanted me to show him. My dad has also made some money on stocks, although not that much. He lost some during the IT crash too but he’s overall made a decent profit on it. Anyway, last summer he told me and my sister that we could invest 2k each and if we’d lose it he’d pay us back. That part went fine and I started reading a lot about the energy market and I kinda got hooked. Now that I’ve made some money of my own from poker I’ve been able to invest a little and I’m having a blast.

Get some interest[b]

The idea about investments are that you should get better intrest then you’d get if you had the money in the bank. I’m of the opinion that bank accounts just rips us off since the big banks make money with your money and pay you very little in return. So, it’s better if you make money with your money, right? After all, you can probably do it almost as good anyway.

[b]BR-management

As in poker; shit happends and you shouldn’t play around with money you can’t lose. Myth said it very good; “Investing is clearly a +EV addition to anyone’s life, and with tax benefits and the potential to produce huge gains, as poker players we should all consider doing it some day. If you choose to do so, which I hope you will, begin with an assessment of your risk attitude and some serious studies on the fundamentals.”

Taxes and Rake

I have no idea about the rules in other countries, but in Sweden it’s basicly 30% rake on the gains so if you invest 1k and the stock rises to 2k you’ll have 1 and 2/3 k’s in your hand. That’s kinda high, and you’ll also have to pay some rake, sometimes called “courtage”, when you buy stuff. This is often not much, but if you don’t buy for large sums and wants to buy on a foreign stock market it can get somewhat expensive. If you want to know more I can probably tell you a bit about the rules in Sweden, but I’ve got no idea about how it is in other contries. I guess myth knows more about this stuff. Just ask on the 2+2 investment forum otherwise, I was looking around a bit there and they seem to know some stuff about this.

The energy market

Just like in poker you should probably learn one single kind of game at first. I, for example, don’t know shit about most companies outside the energy sector. I happened to think that this sector is one of the better to invest in right now and I try to read a lot about it. Basicly we have really high prices right now, indications that they might continue even higher and a lot of small and medium sized companies that have the opportunity to make sick money if things work out for them. We all know that the oil is really expencive, many people talks about “peak oil” and there are a lot of ideas about how to extract oil from stuff that couldn’t be profitable to think about before. Also, because of different reasons the uranium industry is not in that good of a shape right now because of about 25 years of underinvestment. There are simply not enough supply and an ever incresing demand on this radioactive stuff. Even thought this sector has had a sick, allmost sakisaki-like, run the last few years many experts think that it’ll continue another few years. It’s really time consuming to make a new mine for uranium so they’re probably right. Basicly; this shit is probably the most +ev sector you can invest in right now.

What's next?

I've got a lot of shit to do for a while now but I'll try to write up a little guide to a few companies I think can do good in the future sometime. That'll at least give you a few ideas about companies that you can check out. Also, if someone wants to help me write that part just PM me and we'll excange msn or something.

Links

Myth’s article on investment: http://www.liquidpoker.net/information/f/146437/1/Poker_and_Investing.html

Jordanfonden, "The Jordan Fund", a Swedish blog with sick roi on their recommendations: http://www.angby.com/jsp/jordanfund/index.jsp

2+2 on Uranium: (some basic stuff) http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...umber=9029791&an=0&page=0#Post9029791

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Ok so pokerwise I havn't played much the last few days but I'm up a few buyins. Anyway, I've been investing most of my winnings in stocks now and at one point I cashed out everything except 800 USD. I'm back at about 1.5k now and I'll be a bit more aggressive with my BR management from now on. Anyway, I've been running good with teh stockz this month and I'm basicly up 11% on the first money I put in in the beginning of the january and I put about 3k more in today.

My total investments are now worth about 6k and I'm very happy with that. Since it's just poker money I can be somewhat aggressive with it and currently I've got my money in uranium, oil and stem cells.

UR-ENERGY INC - (ure.to) - uranium in North America
Vitrolife - Stem cells and stuff, kinda longshotish.
Lundin Oil - (lupe:SAX) - Oil in Russia, Norway, Sudan etc
Vena Resources Inc - (VEM.V) - mining in Peru, uranium and other metals.

Anyway, if anyone wants some tips or has any questions about this you can just post it here or PM me. I'm no expert by any means but I've got a decent idea about this and I've got some kick ass links (in Swedish unfortunatly) if someone wants to know more about then energy sector.

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Ok, I havn't hit that many hands lately but I've had some great opportunities to make moves. I'll just post a few of them and see what you guys think about them.

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/147477 <- standard steal?
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/147478 <- I dunno about this one really.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/147480 <- Also a hard one. "When in doubt, push all in"-ish hand.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/147481 <- Probably stupid. I wanted him of K/Q/J-high.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/147483 <- Probably the most intressting hand I played today.

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Ok, since the last period of stupid bad beat post I decided to witdraw like 3k from my bankroll and invest in the stock market. I moved down to NL50, talked a bit with Saki who said something along the lines of “it’s hard to have a good downswing lower then NL100 because everyone is just horrible!” and I figured that I might overdo things here. I havn’t played much the last five or six days but I’ve played pretty good. I’ve just played solid, havn’t done any complicated bluffs or hero calls but rather tried to valuebet the fuck out of the fishes and only bluff when it’s somewhat obvious that they’re weak. During the last 2.5k hands I’ve made 16bb/100 hands, which is obvisouly party due to running good, but also some decent play. Anyway, from now on I’ll try to be a bit more aggressive with my bankroll. I’ll probably start playing NL100 when I hit 2k and just try to move up permanently asap. I think that I’ll probably play better under a bit more pressure and I’ll not play as sloppy anymore.

Also, since I learned that Saki lives kinda close to me I’ve made it my new goal for the year to stack him in some live game. That’d pwn.

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