wow, wtf

pretty obvious, small turn lead +EV

get shat on, son

my play is obv bad vs a good player, but he's a fish, forgot to check the flag, japanese fish are god fish

why is your play bad vs a good player? seems okay to me. i'm assuming you're talking about the river because the other streets seem totally fine. as for the river allin bluff, i can't see it being TOO bad because really how many hands with the Ah are we getting to here that can't call? it's really just AhTx, maybe some AhQx / AhKx. and what better hands would we bluff with here?

and yeah his play looks SUPER fishy

my play is bad because when he's half potting 2 streets on this board he keeps both ranges wide
and when I shove river Im repping narrow and is easy to be unbalanced since my range is wider than supposed to be, unless im expanding my river value shove range but is quite hard to do that since I dont have overpairs and Jx is shoving anyway regardless of his size

would be completely different if we were a bit deeper and he went for 3/4 turn 3/4 river and then I shove over, because then my turn call range is smaller so I dont have that many hands to turn into a bluff as compared to when he half pots
hes a fish, so I assumed he prob didnt know that, but a decent reg would know and actually not having a flush blocker is preferable since if im unbalanced towards bluffs Ill be bluffing hands that contain a Qh Kh or Ah, so he doesnt want to block these

too tired to explain, prob didnt explain very well

On October 13 2019 11:59 drone666 wrote: my play is bad because when he's half potting 2 streets on this board he keeps both ranges wide and when I shove river Im repping narrow and is easy to be unbalanced since my range is wider than supposed to be, unless im expanding my river value shove range but is quite hard to do that since I dont have overpairs and Jx is shoving anyway regardless of his size would be completely different if we were a bit deeper and he went for 3/4 turn 3/4 river and then I shove over, because then my turn call range is smaller so I dont have that many hands to turn into a bluff as compared to when he half pots hes a fish, so I assumed he prob didnt know that, but a decent reg would know and actually not having a flush blocker is preferable since if im unbalanced towards bluffs Ill be bluffing hands that contain a Qh Kh or Ah, so he doesnt want to block these too tired to explain, prob didnt explain very well

nah that makes sense, def agree that the hand is a bit weird due to how opponent played it (esp with a small turn bet followed by a large-ish river bet)

i'm kinda on the fence about bluffing with a flush blocker in your shoes. we do want to unblock his bluffs, which have much reason to contain flush blockers since he wants to block your flushes, but we also want to block his value hands which contain flushes. so it goes both ways. the question is whether a flush blocker would block more value hands or bluffs, and that could go either way.

On October 14 2019 00:01 fira wrote: Show nested quote + On October 13 2019 11:59 drone666 wrote: my play is bad because when he's half potting 2 streets on this board he keeps both ranges wide and when I shove river Im repping narrow and is easy to be unbalanced since my range is wider than supposed to be, unless im expanding my river value shove range but is quite hard to do that since I dont have overpairs and Jx is shoving anyway regardless of his size would be completely different if we were a bit deeper and he went for 3/4 turn 3/4 river and then I shove over, because then my turn call range is smaller so I dont have that many hands to turn into a bluff as compared to when he half pots hes a fish, so I assumed he prob didnt know that, but a decent reg would know and actually not having a flush blocker is preferable since if im unbalanced towards bluffs Ill be bluffing hands that contain a Qh Kh or Ah, so he doesnt want to block these too tired to explain, prob didnt explain very well nah that makes sense, def agree that the hand is a bit weird due to how opponent played it (esp with a small turn bet followed by a large-ish river bet) i'm kinda on the fence about bluffing with a flush blocker in your shoes. we do want to unblock his bluffs, which have much reason to contain flush blockers since he wants to block your flushes, but we also want to block his value hands which contain flushes. so it goes both ways. the question is whether a flush blocker would block more value hands or bluffs, and that could go either way.

On October 14 2019 00:01 fira wrote: i'm kinda on the fence about bluffing with a flush blocker in your shoes. we do want to unblock his bluffs, which have much reason to contain flush blockers since he wants to block your flushes, but we also want to block his value hands which contain flushes. so it goes both ways. the question is whether a flush blocker would block more value hands or bluffs, and that could go either way.

you just copied what I said ? the answer is that when ranges are wide we dont really want to block bluffs if people are overbluffing, even if we are blocking the value part

my question is what is villains range here and what is he folding if he calls AQ?

I get the wide ranges part but if he's keeping ranges wide, what's his overall strategy? seems super hard to play if you're forcing yourself to make these kinds of call downs.

On October 14 2019 11:28 drone666 wrote: Show nested quote + On October 14 2019 00:01 fira wrote: i'm kinda on the fence about bluffing with a flush blocker in your shoes. we do want to unblock his bluffs, which have much reason to contain flush blockers since he wants to block your flushes, but we also want to block his value hands which contain flushes. so it goes both ways. the question is whether a flush blocker would block more value hands or bluffs, and that could go either way. you just copied what I said ? the answer is that when ranges are wide we dont really want to block bluffs if people are overbluffing, even if we are blocking the value part

what if people are not overbluffing? in general, i feel like blocking the value portion is always a good thing. unblocking the bluff portion is a good thing too but you could also have someone who doesn't use flush blockers to bluff with here, in which case bluffing with value blockers by far the correct thing to do. bluffing with a rando-hand is like... meh... i don't know i'm really on the fence. maybe we'd want to try to block full houses in some cases, but here it's iffy to say what boats he even has.

On October 14 2019 14:02 Nitewin wrote: my question is what is villains range here and what is he folding if he calls AQ? I get the wide ranges part but if he's keeping ranges wide, what's his overall strategy? seems super hard to play if you're forcing yourself to make these kinds of call downs.

villain seems like he has little clue of what he's doing. he prob folds a J but calls AQ here lol

On October 14 2019 14:25 fira wrote: villain seems like he has little clue of what he's doing. he prob folds a J but calls AQ here lol

100% nobody folds Jx

On October 14 2019 14:25 fira wrote: what if people are not overbluffing? in general, i feel like blocking the value portion is always a good thing. unblocking the bluff portion is a good thing too but you could also have someone who doesn't use flush blockers to bluff with here, in which case bluffing with value blockers by far the correct thing to do. bluffing with a rando-hand is like... meh... i don't know i'm really on the fence. maybe we'd want to try to block full houses in some cases, but here it's iffy to say what boats he even has.

I previously said the reason why people are overbluffing, because the ranges are wider and river shove reps narrow, so naturally is easier to find bluffs, not saying my hand is not a good candidate to bluff shove, but I gotta be careful vs good players

i'm kidding (but only sort of because he did call you with AQ lol)

so anyway blocking Jx should be good here. your Td is a good blocker here, blocks JTd. Tc is another good card, along with Kc Qc Kd Qd. i guess KQ is a pretty good bluffing hand that we should have often here. i'm not sure if KQo / KJo / QJo / AJo are typical 3bet hands in HU? when i played HU i usually didn't 3bet too many of these because it skews my calling range a lot if i never have broadways when calling

also these good cards that block Jx also block potential bluffing hands with flush blockers. like Kc would block AhKc, Qc blocks AhQc and KhQc, etc. so really i don't see how we can block the opponent's value range here without also blocking his bluffing range, like at all!

tbh i still think your hand is like the perfect bluffing hand, because it blocks both flushes and Jx

It isn't so much drone666 has a bad bluffing hand (i mean he did jam in the moment after all) he is just aware that in general given the way the hand gets to his river decision he can easily be over bluffing the spot and needs to be careful.

I WROTE A BUNCH OF STUFF ABOUT SOLVING THIS SPOT SO READ IF U WANT!!

it shouldn't be too hard to map out our value combos here and create an appropriate bluffing range as to make villain's bluffcatchers (anything worse than a flush) indifferent to calling or folding

let's say we are never rejamming anything worse than a flush for value, and let's also say we are only calling with a few of our worst flushes

a reasonable value range looks like this:

19 combos of flushes:

Ah2h
Ah3h
Ah5h
Ah6h
Ah8h
AhTh
KhQh
KhTh
Kh8h
QhTh
Qh8h
Th8h
Th7h
8h7h
8h6h
7h6h (Only call)
7h5h (Only call)
6h5h (Only call)
5h3h (Only call)

11 combos of full houses

Jc9c
Jd9d
Three combos of 44
Three combos of 66
Three combos of 99

This gives us roughly 26 combos of value-raising hands. This is of course assuming we aren't playing differently on any earlier street with these hands (which I'd say is reasonable given the opponent's actions)

To make opponent's bluffcatchers indifferent to calling or folding we look at the pot odds of our raise: $278.5 more into $462. Opponent is calling $278.5 in order to win $741. So he needs to be good ~37.5% of the time. That means that we need about 10 combos of bluffs.

Now let's look at what bluffs we can use here that should be in our range:

- AQ: let's say we're 4betting all our AQs and half our AQo. So that leaves 6 combos of AQ. 3 of those combos have either Ah or Qh.
- AT: let's say we're always calling with AT, both suited and offsuit. That's 15 combos of AT (removing AhTh). 6 of those combos have either Ah or Th.
- KQ: let's say we're always calling with KQ, both suited and offsuit. That's 15 combos of KQ (removing KhQh), 6 of those combos have either Kh or Qh.
- QT: let's say we're always calling with QT, both suited and offsuit. That's 15 combos of QT (removing QhTh), 6 of those combos have either Qh or Th.

These are probably the best bluffing hands, as they block both flushes and Jx. They also block opponent bluffing ranges, but there doesn't seem to be any way around that if they are bluffing intelligently.

So that's 21 combos of bluffs, but for this raise size we should only bluff with about half of these.

The number of bluff combos will change depending on how many of these hands we do/don't have in our range, like if we are 4betting more AQ or some KQ or QT type hands perhaps (what are some good 4bet bluff hands 100 deep HU? I'm actually not sure)

So yeah if we are just bluffing with all our broadways that contain a heart then we are still bluffing twice as much as we should be. Not sure how we'd decide which of these hands to bluff with or not.

OK ANALYSIS COMPLETE PROCEED TO dildos

I'd run a sim just for your trouble fira but I don't have HU 3bet pot ranges

WAIT I WAS WRONG!!!!!!! THE POT is way bigger than the bet size here, so opponent should need less than 33% equity to call. he's actually calling $278.5 to win $1019, which means he only needs to be good 27.3% of the time! that means that we can only actually have 7 bluffing combos instead of 10! that's only ONE THIRD of all the broadway hands with a heart we can have in our range!!!

On October 16 2019 21:28 lebowski wrote: I'd run a sim just for your trouble fira but I don't have HU 3bet pot ranges

lol probably but i like working through these manually to understand how it works exactly

HU this is my 3bet range 100 deep vs drone's open size:

88-22: 50% 3bet, 50% call
99+: 100% 3bet
all suited broadways (AKQJT): 100% 3bet
all suited connectors down to 45s: 100% 3bet
all suited wheel aces: 100% 3bet
A6s-A9s: 50% 3bet, 50% call
AKo/AQo: 100% 3bet
AJo/KQo: 50% 3bet, 50% call

IDK IF THIS IS GOOD OR NOT

GAWD I DONT KNOW HOW TO READ WTF SORRY AFK

On October 11 2019 16:13 Santafairy wrote: pretty obvious, small turn lead +EV

huehuehuehuehue

oh also! it's not as easy as just making him indifferent to calling/folding with a bluffcatcher, because he'll also have a bluffing range which always folds when bluffed against. so in those situations we'd always win a really big pot. i guess the point is that we should bluff with at LEAST 7 combos, because bluffing with fewer allows him to fold all his bluffcatchers. if we bluff with more than 7 combos it's okay, because even though he'll call 100% of his bluffcatchers profitably, he has to HAVE a bluffcatcher in the first place in order to do that.

how many more than 7 bluff combos we should have depends on how often he is bluffing. how often he is bluffing depends on how many value bets he has. ITS ALL COMING TOGETHER