4
|
Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 16:33. Posts 2683 | | |
ok not really but it strikes fear into my heart seeing that I am running 11 buyins below expectation in allins. I mean this isn't like that pokerev program that people came to eventually disregard.
I hope someone who is better than me at math can explain to me how it is possible for this to happen over such a significant sample size
|
|
drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier | Last edit: 26/10/2008 16:34 |
|
|
1
|
joLin   United States. Oct 26 2008 16:38. Posts 3818 | | |
go and look at the number of hands you've been all-in. |
|
|
|
4
|
Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 16:39. Posts 2683 | | |
dont know how right now but it's certainly in the thousands |
|
drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier | |
|
|
4
|
Daut   United States. Oct 26 2008 16:40. Posts 8955 | | |
i mean 11 buyins is nothing
if you flip a coin 1000 times would you be surprised if you got 520 heads and 480 tails? |
|
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut | |
|
|
1
|
Shabbzoy   United Kingdom. Oct 26 2008 16:40. Posts 841 | | |
those bastards owe me $2K on microstakes over 200k!
edit: would also help if i wasnt painfully bad + completely resistant to improvment |
|
| Last edit: 26/10/2008 16:42 |
|
|
4
|
Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 16:44. Posts 2683 | | |
dot i am sure you're way better than me at math. I remember I did something like this in stats. e.g. what are the odds the coin hits 520 times on heads. can you give me an estimate? |
|
drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier | |
|
|
4
|
Daut   United States. Oct 26 2008 16:50. Posts 8955 | | |
the numbers are so large, so ill do it for a small sample
suppose you flip a coin 6 times. there are 2^6 total combinations of outcomes or 64
odds it is each?
t-h
0-6: 1
1-5: 6
2-4: 15
3-3: 20
4-2: 15
5-1: 6
6-0: 1
adding these up you can see they are 64
so for 3 heads, the odds is (6 choose 3) / (2^6)
whts more important than that is the odds that its between certain numbers
i dont remember a quick way to do this for large numbers, but you can get pretty good estimates
so basically the key number would be odds that its between 480 and 520 heads
and the way to estimate it would be doing something like 40*( (1000 choose 510) / (2^1000) )
|
|
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut | |
|
|
1
|
gawdawaful   Canada. Oct 26 2008 16:51. Posts 9012 | | |
11bi really is nothing over this sample
if its 110 then you'd be on to something
and Daut's example is just an example, the actual % of it coming up 520:480 in 1000 flips is not reflective of your situation. You would have to look into how often you're getting it in as 60:40, 70:30 etc.
Your sample could just reflect that you've lost a lot more 30: 70s then you should have (as in getting it behind and not sucking out as often) or that your 55:45s arent holding nearly as often as they should etc. thus building into a 11bi difference over this sample size. |
|
Im only good at poker when I run good | Last edit: 26/10/2008 16:53 |
|
|
4
|
Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 16:54. Posts 2683 | | |
yikes now I remember why I flunked out of sandwich college |
|
drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier | |
|
|
1
|
Jamie217   Canada. Oct 26 2008 16:54. Posts 4351 | | |
yeah 11 bi below expectation in 100k hands is nothing at alll |
|
|
1
|
gawdawaful   Canada. Oct 26 2008 16:55. Posts 9012 | | |
maybe this will help you sleep at night :-D
|
|
Im only good at poker when I run good | |
|
|
1
|
joLin   United States. Oct 26 2008 16:58. Posts 3818 | | |
in the thousands? how many thousand are we talking about? youve really been all-in in more than 3-4% of the hands youve played?
edit: anyway, my point being that the sample of hands youve been all-in is probably really small, thus the difference is not a big deal. |
|
YoUr_KiLLeR @ TL | Last edit: 26/10/2008 17:00 |
|
|
4
|
Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 17:03. Posts 2683 | | |
between me and the shortstacks I'd think 3-4k is reasonable |
|
drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier | |
|
|
1
| |
how come that almost everybody seems to run below expectation? |
|
money won is twice as sweet as money earned. | |
|
|
1
|
Misjka   Netherlands. Oct 26 2008 17:07. Posts 266 | | |
I just wonder if anyone can show a graph of say more than 50k hands where he runs above EV? |
|
|
1
|
joLin   United States. Oct 26 2008 17:14. Posts 3818 | | |
| On October 26 2008 16:03 Roald wrote:
between me and the shortstacks I'd think 3-4k is reasonable |
go to edit filters, more filters and turn filters --> all in on turn or earlier and see how many hands come back. i only had about 290 in 50k hands.
| On October 26 2008 16:07 Royal_Rumble wrote:
how come that almost everybody seems to run below expectation? |
cuz the only ones who talk about it are the ones who run below expectation =p. |
|
|
|
4
|
Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 17:16. Posts 2683 | | |
| On October 26 2008 16:07 Misjka wrote:
I just wonder if anyone can show a graph of say more than 50k hands where he runs above EV? |
|
|
drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier | |
|
|
4
|
Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 17:17. Posts 2683 | | |
lol I guess I'm just paying the piper this month
what a stupid thread |
|
drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier | |
|
|
1
|
gawdawaful   Canada. Oct 26 2008 19:26. Posts 9012 | | |
I'm up like 6k above expectation this month in 35k hands or so |
|
Im only good at poker when I run good | |
|
|
1
|
zodion   Germany. Oct 26 2008 20:02. Posts 260 | | |
im about 16buyins below expectation overall, and the sad part is, that it will PROBABLY stay that way, since the card generator doesnt care,
meaning:
there is no reason to expect a lucky streak, u will probably stay at the All in EV you are at atm |
|
|
|