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Proof that Stars is rigged

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Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 16:33. Posts 2683


ok not really but it strikes fear into my heart seeing that I am running 11 buyins below expectation in allins. I mean this isn't like that pokerev program that people came to eventually disregard.

I hope someone who is better than me at math can explain to me how it is possible for this to happen over such a significant sample size

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drugs, animals, children are welcome -XavierLast edit: 26/10/2008 16:34

joLin   United States. Oct 26 2008 16:38. Posts 3818

go and look at the number of hands you've been all-in.

YoUr_KiLLeR @ TL 

Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 16:39. Posts 2683

dont know how right now but it's certainly in the thousands

drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier 

Daut    United States. Oct 26 2008 16:40. Posts 8955

i mean 11 buyins is nothing

if you flip a coin 1000 times would you be surprised if you got 520 heads and 480 tails?

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

Shabbzoy   United Kingdom. Oct 26 2008 16:40. Posts 841

those bastards owe me $2K on microstakes over 200k!

edit: would also help if i wasnt painfully bad + completely resistant to improvment

 Last edit: 26/10/2008 16:42

Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 16:44. Posts 2683

dot i am sure you're way better than me at math. I remember I did something like this in stats. e.g. what are the odds the coin hits 520 times on heads. can you give me an estimate?

drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier 

Daut    United States. Oct 26 2008 16:50. Posts 8955

the numbers are so large, so ill do it for a small sample


suppose you flip a coin 6 times. there are 2^6 total combinations of outcomes or 64
odds it is each?

t-h
0-6: 1
1-5: 6
2-4: 15
3-3: 20
4-2: 15
5-1: 6
6-0: 1

adding these up you can see they are 64


so for 3 heads, the odds is (6 choose 3) / (2^6)

whts more important than that is the odds that its between certain numbers
i dont remember a quick way to do this for large numbers, but you can get pretty good estimates


so basically the key number would be odds that its between 480 and 520 heads
and the way to estimate it would be doing something like 40*( (1000 choose 510) / (2^1000) )

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

gawdawaful   Canada. Oct 26 2008 16:51. Posts 9012

11bi really is nothing over this sample
if its 110 then you'd be on to something

and Daut's example is just an example, the actual % of it coming up 520:480 in 1000 flips is not reflective of your situation. You would have to look into how often you're getting it in as 60:40, 70:30 etc.
Your sample could just reflect that you've lost a lot more 30: 70s then you should have (as in getting it behind and not sucking out as often) or that your 55:45s arent holding nearly as often as they should etc. thus building into a 11bi difference over this sample size.

Im only good at poker when I run goodLast edit: 26/10/2008 16:53

Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 16:54. Posts 2683

yikes now I remember why I flunked out of sandwich college

drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier 

Jamie217   Canada. Oct 26 2008 16:54. Posts 4351

yeah 11 bi below expectation in 100k hands is nothing at alll


gawdawaful   Canada. Oct 26 2008 16:55. Posts 9012



maybe this will help you sleep at night :-D

Im only good at poker when I run good 

joLin   United States. Oct 26 2008 16:58. Posts 3818

in the thousands? how many thousand are we talking about? youve really been all-in in more than 3-4% of the hands youve played?

edit: anyway, my point being that the sample of hands youve been all-in is probably really small, thus the difference is not a big deal.

YoUr_KiLLeR @ TLLast edit: 26/10/2008 17:00

Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 17:03. Posts 2683

between me and the shortstacks I'd think 3-4k is reasonable

drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier 

Royal_Rumble   Germany. Oct 26 2008 17:07. Posts 1760

how come that almost everybody seems to run below expectation?

money won is twice as sweet as money earned.  

Misjka   Netherlands. Oct 26 2008 17:07. Posts 266

I just wonder if anyone can show a graph of say more than 50k hands where he runs above EV?


joLin   United States. Oct 26 2008 17:14. Posts 3818


  On October 26 2008 16:03 Roald wrote:
between me and the shortstacks I'd think 3-4k is reasonable


go to edit filters, more filters and turn filters --> all in on turn or earlier and see how many hands come back. i only had about 290 in 50k hands.

  On October 26 2008 16:07 Royal_Rumble wrote:
how come that almost everybody seems to run below expectation?


cuz the only ones who talk about it are the ones who run below expectation =p.

YoUr_KiLLeR @ TL 

Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 17:16. Posts 2683


  On October 26 2008 16:07 Misjka wrote:
I just wonder if anyone can show a graph of say more than 50k hands where he runs above EV?



drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier 

Roald   Tuvalu. Oct 26 2008 17:17. Posts 2683

lol I guess I'm just paying the piper this month

what a stupid thread

drugs, animals, children are welcome -Xavier 

gawdawaful   Canada. Oct 26 2008 19:26. Posts 9012

I'm up like 6k above expectation this month in 35k hands or so

Im only good at poker when I run good 

zodion   Germany. Oct 26 2008 20:02. Posts 260

im about 16buyins below expectation overall, and the sad part is, that it will PROBABLY stay that way, since the card generator doesnt care,
meaning:

there is no reason to expect a lucky streak, u will probably stay at the All in EV you are at atm


 
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