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Thats right ladies n gents. 2 finals!
One from 8:30am to 11:30 so in like 9 hours and the other from 7pm-10pm.... no joke..fucking SFU
I have locked myself in the house for 2 days trying to study but I have done all kinds of random things... I promised myself I wouldnt play poker and I didnt but spend a good chunk on this site looking at hands... and actually thinking about theory math stuff behind poker...
I had a discussion with some1 about one of the thigns I read in Sklansky book:
You are heads up and cards are dealt between you and opponent.
Your opponent moves all in and tells you he either has AK or AA.
Now I know that there are 6 ways to AA and 16 ways to AK.
so 27% chance he has AA, 73% he has AK.
but this guy was telling me an Ace card is fixed so you either have 3/7 chance of getting AA or 4/7 of chance of geting AK. so (43% of him having AA, 57% AK)
I know his wrong but I couldnt prove him mathematically in time... we were on the bus. but I came up with this, which is alternate way:
The dude was telling me this basically:
Fixed Ace -> (3/7) to get another Ace, (4/7) to get King.
but there is only 4/8 to get Ace dealt and then use that path so divide his % by 2.
and add this
4/8 ways to get this:
K-> and (4/4) ways to get Ace.
So time well spent, next time I see him I can show him whos the king
but why do I do this, I can never cocentrate on school even though I am done for the year after these 2 exams... anyonelse has this syndrome/desease/ whatever you call it.
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| | Last edit: 11/04/2007 00:36 |
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Red9 Canada. Apr 11 2007 00:29. Posts 7447 | | |
ill do you one better sir
term paper 12-15 pages wed 930 am..in 7 hours in montreal
2 finals friday
2 finals monday
fucking mcgill!
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| I will grind you into dust. | |
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acdawg712 United States. Apr 11 2007 00:31. Posts 2639 | | |
Wow Red, that's pretty impressive that you go to Mcgill. I am from the US and even I know it is a world class institutiton. |
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| phil hellmuth is genuinely a stupid person and he does not understand poker very well at all - [vital]myth | |
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AntonChan Canada. Apr 11 2007 00:45. Posts 113 | | |
NO LIMIT THEORY AND PRACTICE HAHAHA |
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yah? does your commute time beat 90mins? At least mine isnt so damn early tomorrow
PS: You're going to miss game 1 :/ |
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| Im only good at poker when I run good | |
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btw I agree with you in that his calculation is wrong, but I'm thinking its theoretically wrong in the sense that just because your opponent told you he has either AK or AA, that doesnt make his initial chance at getting dealt the first Ace any higher than it otherwise would.
In other words, just because he has either AK or AA, that doesnt increase his likelihood of having AA. The odds of being dealt AA is the same. |
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| Im only good at poker when I run good | |
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Hey didnt you know ur from Vancouver...
Actually my cummute is close to that... 1:15-1:20 min... my record is 1:10, from SFU to northshore.
and fuck i wasnt even thinking game1... thanks! haha
but that calculation is just for getting the odds him having EITHER AA OR AK.
he has one hand and no other so the odds of AA is obviously alot more than being dealt AA in general.
ps.
Red9... you made me feel a bit better  |
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| | Last edit: 11/04/2007 01:23 |
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lol actually northshore might just take longer
/me Surrey
Back to odds, I dont agree because hmm, just because your opponent tells you it simply has to be either or, it doesnt make the odds of him being dealt a certain hand (thus AA) higher than it should be.
But hmm, since we know one of them must be an ace, so the first card simply must be an ace (to eliminate any chance of getting dealt KK). 4/4 x 3/7 for AA and 4/4 x 4/7 for AK?
12/28 vs 16/28 for
42.9 vs 57.1% (AA VS AK)
I would agree with "that dude on the bus" then
But hmm, something doesnt seem right this way. I'll draw a tree diagram, see how far that gets me |
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| Im only good at poker when I run good | |
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I think I have a better answer that I can live with based on what I know about probability
Lets suppose the odds of getting his first hole card as an ace or king is 4/8
So his first hole card is an ace. The odds of him being dealt the 2nd ace for his 2nd hole card is 3/7, and the odds of him being dealt a king for his 2nd hole card is 4/7
We have 4/8 x 3/7 for 12/56 for the odds of him getting AA and 4/8 x 4/7 for 16/56 for odds of him getting AK
On the other side of the branch is where I struggled with. Odds of being dealt a King for his first hole card is 4/8. Odds of him being dealt ANYTHING BESIDES AN ACE is ZERO given what we know about the outcome of his hand (must be AA/AK/KA) Therefore, the odds of him being dealt anything besides KA (when getting King first) is zero. Therefore, getting KA consists of all 28/56 in this branch of the tree.
Sum up AK, 16/56 + 28/56 for 44/56 and that leaves 12/56 for AA. So in essence, knowing he either has AA or AK decreases the likelihood of him having AA.
Poke hole through this one while I cram some more for final |
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| Im only good at poker when I run good | |
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actually to reiterate, it doesnt decrease the likelihood of him having AA, we just threw out the odds of KK occuring and replaced it with KA
so anytime the K is his first hole card, the odds of his 2nd hole card is always an ace |
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| Im only good at poker when I run good | |
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