I think I have this right but I'd like some confirmation:
Say there's $1 in the pot. Someone goes allin for $1, and we have him covered. We'd need 33% equity to make it a break-even call, right? Since we gain $2 when we win, and lose $1 when we lose, we need to win a third of the time to break even.
Kay now I'm pretty sure this is correct. Guess I'll post it for giggles.
I'm sitting at a live 9max table. All unknowns except for two players: to my right is Marc-Etienne McLaughlin (WSOP 2013), who seemed like a decent player. To my left is an older guy with glasses whom I've played with at 1/2 live. Pretty loose, sometimes misreads his hands. Not sure what stakes, but it seemed like mid-high.
It's folded around to McLaughlin, who raises standard. He'd been raising a lot from late positions. I'm on button and look down at KdKh, and make a smallish raise, a bit under 3x. Older guy calls in SB, and McLaughlin sighs and says something like "you've got the best hand" but calls anyway. Two unknowns who were apparently sitting between me and McLaughlin call. I'm confused and panicking a bit because I didn't realize they were there, not to mention in the hand. I'd have raised a lot more. Oh well, to the flop.
Flop is AsQc7c, 5 way. Checked around to me. I decide to bet about 40% pot for value/protection. Older guy calls, McLaughlin makes a comment about my sizing and calls. The two unknowns fold.
Turn is Ks, 3 way. I don't remember what I did, but it didn't seem important at the time. Let's say I checked.
River is Ah, 3 way. Older guy goes allin for around pot, McLaughlin thinks for a bit and calls. I shove for about a minraise, and McLaughlin calls. Older guy shows AJo, McLaughlin shows KdKh. Wait, isn't that my hand? I flip over my cards and see that I had A8o. What the hell?
The next hand begins. As I'm trying to explain what happened, I hear a knock on my door and my great-aunt telling me it's 2PM and I should get up. Sick beat.
