Sports Betting Thread

I'm a few people on LP bet on sports on at least once in a while, ie March Madness, Super Bowl, etc. Let's discuss any good picks we had and any good looking picks for the current day.

I made up for a lackluster Super Bowl by going 4 of 4 today.

Parlay Loyola(Ill) (+21) at Butler and Under 126 O/U same game
Kansas(-2) at Texas
Mavericks(-5) at Golden State
Lakers (-3.5) vs San Antonio without Kobe and Bynum, sick hold.

I use Bodog for now because the PLO games on there are super soft. Any other good sites with easy depositing and cashout reputation?

There are some interesting games tomorrow.
Illinois at Wisconsin(Wisconsin will likely crush)
Tennessee at Vanderbilt(Not sure)
Purdue at Michigan State(Depends on Kalin Lucas. Doesn't look like he'll play. I like Purdue)

So to clarify this is a BBV/sweat thread.

I guess that is what it seems like, but I'd rather prefer the main focus to be discussion about that day's upcoming games. Brags, beats, and sweats are also welcome!

Ive been doing nba/ncaab/nhl parlays like 6 teamers + out of pure rush/excitement and I think out of like 1 month of doing it I hit once, probably down like 4k lifetime off like maybe a 350 parlay sample and average bet of $300. my assistant makes the picks on all the spreads and I take his spreads and combine them with my picks on NHL under/over along with NBA under/over. I think it'd be interesting if you could point out why u prefer college ball over NBA, I mean on an average day ESPN keeps the score of like 30 college basketball games so it seems pretty hard to keep up with how everyone is playing if you're new at this. anyways yea, I don't plan on doing it much anymore as it's pretty annoying how I've missed out on 7-teamer parlays that pay 35k each about ten times in the last week, and all losing by a hair (spurs win over kings 115-113, kings kept shooting 3's and never missed so spurs missed the point spread of -4.5)

the best I can give on here is my input on overs/unders. for tomorrow I like the over on new york knicks/sacramento kings. Both these teams shoot threes like it's not even a real game, so you're usually not sweating the over in the 4th quarter as theyre on pace for a 240 point game by half time pretty often. other than that, rest of my picks are:

bulls/pacers over 202, OKC thunder -1, OKC/portland over 192, utah -4.5 vs clippers(home), georgetown -4, NHL nashville/NY islanders over 5.5, vancouver/tampa bay over 5.5

Some say that the more obscure the game the more inefficient the market.

I'm using Manchester City as my banker today.

Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units
Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units
Swindon - Oldham / 10 units
Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units
Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units

EDIT
I'll add my own opinions on future bets, this is just a brag/sweat since I don't have time right now

On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units

What prices? What are these units?

On February 09 2010 07:32 RaiNKhAN wrote: for tomorrow I like the over on new york knicks/sacramento kings. Both these teams shoot threes like it's not even a real game, so you're usually not sweating the over in the 4th quarter as theyre on pace for a 240 point game by half time pretty often.

Is there a reason that you don't think everyone else knows this and is already priced in to the 213.5 line?

For instance, one might say that if all your casual observers expect it to be high scoring and will bet on the over, there might be blind value on the under. Not to be results oriented, but the superbowl might be a good example of this. Among recreational bettors, did you know many dying to get action on the under in that matchup of top offenses and great QB's? So why wasn't the line higher? Who is betting the under? I don't claim that the over wasn't still the better play and just took a bad beat, but the question still remains.

On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units?

Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB.

On February 09 2010 07:44 Cray0ns wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 07:32 RaiNKhAN wrote: for tomorrow I like the over on new york knicks/sacramento kings. Both these teams shoot threes like it's not even a real game, so you're usually not sweating the over in the 4th quarter as theyre on pace for a 240 point game by half time pretty often. Is there a reason that you don't think everyone else knows this and is already priced in to the 213.5 line? For instance, one might say that if all your casual observers expect it to be high scoring and will bet on the over, there might be blind value on the under. Not to be results oriented, but the superbowl might be a good example of this. Among recreational bettors, did you know many dying to get action on the under in that matchup of top offenses and great QB's? So why wasn't the line higher? Who is betting the under? I don't claim that the over wasn't still the better play and just took a bad beat, but the question still remains.

well I'm a fish at this b/c I don't think about things like that. for example parlays that I do are like a massive edge to the house so I dont really look to become an expert at sports betting, however in regards to the knicks over I just have been watching all the games for the past month so I have a feel for most of these picks rather than just going off pure stats alone. I mean if the knicks were playing the cavs, or celtics I wouldnt touch the over unless it's pretty low like 190 or less, get what i mean?

I find the NBA to be relatively difficult to pick. Teams just randomly perform so on and off. Sometimes you'll see a very good team as a small favorite over a bad team and they won't cover many of times and I just don't know why. One thing I have looked is how teams perform in back to back games. I saw Orlando hasn't been performing too well in away/homes and that trend continued today. Obviously, I am a newbie at this stuff and I end up using my instincts which are definitely not honed at all. In college, it seems like there is less variance. Home teams usually crush and as Crayons said, no one gives a damn about Darthmouth/Penn, so the line for that game is going to be set and that's it. In the NBA, there will likely be action that results in the changing of the lines to something more unfavorable. I think it's also easier to analyze matchups in college. Players in the NBA are all mostly very good and there is a chance anyone could step up. In college, the players aren't as good and I feel it's easier to rely on the team with superior players. I really have no idea what I'm saying, but when I do research in college, especially in conference play, teams play the same opponents within the last few weeks so looking at how each team performs against a common opponentis more valid than seeing how the Lakers did against the 76ers in October. I'm hoping Tenbagger or BJLNYK put in a word.

On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units?

i believe they are units of his bankroll(some percentage)

On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB.

I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices?

Also, I don't really follow NBA as a whole too much. Im in the LP fantasy league and I watch the games on TV but I feel as if I don't have a great feel on the game. In the NBA, they'll end up showing the same few teams(Cle, Bos, Orl, Lal, Den, SA) so I don't even how the say, the Bulls or Heat really play. The college games on tv span all the major leagues, at least the major conferences, therefore creating a large pool of games across various areas of familiarity. They'll show any conference game with a top team barring a complete bottom feeder. Also, there are various games broadcasted on ESPN360 and Big 10 Network(at least for me). I just find there to be more exploitable college lines for these reasons.

On February 09 2010 08:25 Cray0ns wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB. I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices?

When people post picks on other sites, most of the time they just make every pick 1 unit for the sake of easy record keeping.

On February 09 2010 08:06 RaiNKhAN wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 07:44 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:32 RaiNKhAN wrote: for tomorrow I like the over on new york knicks/sacramento kings. Both these teams shoot threes like it's not even a real game, so you're usually not sweating the over in the 4th quarter as theyre on pace for a 240 point game by half time pretty often. Is there a reason that you don't think everyone else knows this and is already priced in to the 213.5 line? For instance, one might say that if all your casual observers expect it to be high scoring and will bet on the over, there might be blind value on the under. Not to be results oriented, but the superbowl might be a good example of this. Among recreational bettors, did you know many dying to get action on the under in that matchup of top offenses and great QB's? So why wasn't the line higher? Who is betting the under? I don't claim that the over wasn't still the better play and just took a bad beat, but the question still remains. well I'm a fish at this b/c I don't think about things like that. for example parlays that I do are like a massive edge to the house so I dont really look to become an expert at sports betting, however in regards to the knicks over I just have been watching all the games for the past month so I have a feel for most of these picks rather than just going off pure stats alone. I mean if the knicks were playing the cavs, or celtics I wouldnt touch the over unless it's pretty low like 190 or less, get what i mean?

I know you're honest to yourself about your reason for betting, which is more than a lot of people who think they really have a huge edge on picking winners. You certainly know a lot more about the NBA than I do, but that's exactly why I'd take the over when no one would touch it.

On February 09 2010 08:25 Cray0ns wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB. I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices?

10 units is 1% of my bankroll. I never bet more than 20 units on a game but sometimes as low as 5 units, very rarely though. It's usually between 10 and 20.
The teams in bold are winners, I don't really play on anything else but 1X2. So the teams in bold for win at the amount of units behind the matchup.

On February 09 2010 08:27 acdawg712 wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 08:25 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB. I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices? When people post picks on other sites, most of the time they just make every pick 1 unit for the sake of easy record keeping.

I'm starting to feel like a troll, but I want to clarify that units are great. I'd love to know what games he feels more strongly about. But how am I supposed to know if he also makes 1 unit bets and these are games he really feels strongly about or if he also makes 100 unit bets and this is just a lean?

My bigger question is what line/price he liked on those games? Manchester City is at -215. Did he only like them at 1-1? Would he still be on Manchester City at -300?

The reason I'm not betting more than 10 units on the other games is that I'm not all that familiar with the lower leagues in England, I've only looked at the form, any injuries and versus stats on those. I'm banking City because they're ridiculously strong at home, even without Kompany and possibly Richards in the back. Bolton is missing key players and City would want to get all the points they can before the games vs Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham.

EDIT

I'd take City at -300 aswell, I'm very confident about that bet.