How bad can you run

Type in X number of hands for X winrate and this simulator will show the graphs of however many players you want it to show. Pretty cool tool if no one knows about it. Made me realize variance more than I had before.

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/


That's 60k hands with a 5 bb/100 winrate player's skill and 10 possible outcomes of a 60k hand run. Sucks to be guy in green.

Anyways I thought it was kind of cool, check it out.

not many of the 10 are winners ...

you should see this for PLO... or even worse mtts.

On June 09 2010 12:14 CCMoz wrote: not many of the 10 are winners ...

Only the green guy is losing.

green guy got banned for making a thread about how bad he runs

On June 09 2010 12:42 Tien wrote: Show nested quote + On June 09 2010 12:14 CCMoz wrote: not many of the 10 are winners ... Only the green guy is losing.

Yes but 50% of the players are losing at atlmost 40-40%< more than their skill dictates over a fairly large sample. That is a huge ass rape depending on ones volume. And the mere fact you can actually lose at a rate of like -5bb over 60k hands being a 5bb winner is beyond retarded

thanks for the thread whoosel ha, makes me sleep better at night

On June 09 2010 12:53 Highcard wrote: Show nested quote + On June 09 2010 12:42 Tien wrote:   On June 09 2010 12:14 CCMoz wrote: not many of the 10 are winners ... Only the green guy is losing. Yes but 50% of the players are losing at atlmost 40-40%< more than their skill dictates over a fairly large sample. That is a huge ass rape depending on ones volume. And the mere fact you can actually lose at a rate of like -5bb over 60k hands being a 5bb winner is beyond retarded

Welcome to my life at PLO, and I think Milpwnya's life as well. We run worse than death. That's why I only play casually I don't know if I could stay sane if I was an everyday grinder experiencing that.

This is why I think the best way to determine your winrate is to honestly evaluate how +EV you think you play every single spot.

On June 09 2010 13:18 edzwoo wrote: This is why I think the best way to determine your winrate is to honestly evaluate how +EV you think you play every single spot.

but what about the redline? redline = life

(btw your post is very great, but almost no one knows how to do that)

variance is one big monstrous downswing, and the high point is merely running normal

holy mother of god... after 1M hands, one guy can be up 500 buy-ins or being in the red with only 1k simulations and 2ptbb/100 winrate.

With a 100bi downswing, 500k break even stretch... damn this describes my world lol

Interesting to see that a player can be a massive winner even with a winrate of 0 over 1 million hands. Kind of crazy actually.

this is why i 24 table

took me 3.5mil hands to figure that out.

On June 09 2010 13:13 Bejamin1 wrote: Show nested quote + On June 09 2010 12:53 Highcard wrote:   On June 09 2010 12:42 Tien wrote:   On June 09 2010 12:14 CCMoz wrote: not many of the 10 are winners ... Only the green guy is losing. Yes but 50% of the players are losing at atlmost 40-40%< more than their skill dictates over a fairly large sample. That is a huge ass rape depending on ones volume. And the mere fact you can actually lose at a rate of like -5bb over 60k hands being a 5bb winner is beyond retarded Welcome to my life at PLO, and I think Milpwnya's life as well. We run worse than death. That's why I only play casually I don't know if I could stay sane if I was an everyday grinder experiencing that.

lol word, plo is evil and fucks with your mind, but ill end up in the green this year mark my words

Having one of the bottom lines this year.

The lower your standard deviation the lower variance you'll get

i stopped at 1.5million lol

After googling a standard deviation of 80bb/100 for 6max seems reasonable, but can some of you guys check your databases to make sure we have a good estimate here?