shove combo draw on turn?

Villain is 33/18, we did have some agressive dynamic on previous hands.

Submitted by : rozyboy

PokerStars Game #41024605524: Holdem No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2010/03/12 2:44:50 EET [2010/03/11 19:44:50 ET]
Table Triglav IV 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: wanillo25 ($132.15 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero ($50 in chips)
Seat 3: blego151 ($63.80 in chips)
Seat 4: Hermaion ($225.25 in chips)
Seat 5: LS773 ($48.25 in chips)
blego151: posts small blind $0.25
Hermaion: posts big blind $0.50

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
LS773: folds
wanillo25: folds
Hero: raises $1 to $1.50
blego151: folds
Hermaion: calls $1

Flop (Pot : $3.25)

   
Hermaion: checks
Hero: bets $2
Hermaion: raises $6 to $8
Hero: calls $6

Turn (Pot : $19.25)

   
Hermaion: bets $15.50

call seems bad, 15 outs seems a little optimistic. not sure what the right play is though.

if u think he mighta been v.light on the flop a ships fine, but a call at least is mandatory here, you can't expect him not to go broke on any river practically.

How does 15 outs seem optimistic? (oh maybe 14 cos he's got one of our cards)

The raise just well... its ok i prefer it to folding definately, its tough to say if its the best play or not cos I don't know how often he's folding to the ship, but he doesnt have to fold very often for it to be the best play (if that makes any sense) I think call >> raise here though

i doubt you have any fold equity and he will probably stack off river with this line so.. call?

if you've got an aggressive dynamic with this kid wouldnt he be 3betting JJ/AK/KK/AA pre? His line is probably 77 , KJ , 910dd or a LOT of combo draws.

Calling here is pretty bad because you'll look absolutely retarded on a blank river, plus your hand is face up as a medium hand by then. To be honest I'd probably fold turn .versus a strong range, that 8 probably brings what, 30% to equity? Bottom line is you should know exactly what to do BEFOREclicking the call button on flop.

call and shove are both 100% fine here, i say this many times, but theres no wrong way to play hands like this

On March 11 2010 23:57 vegable wrote: if you've got an aggressive dynamic with this kid wouldnt he be 3betting JJ/AK/KK/AA pre? His line is probably 77 , KJ , 910dd or a LOT of combo draws. Calling here is pretty bad because you'll look absolutely retarded on a blank river, plus your hand is face up as a medium hand by then. To be honest I'd probably fold turn .versus a strong range, that 8 probably brings what, 30% to equity? Bottom line is you should know exactly what to do BEFOREclicking the call button on flop.

on that note, there is 1 wrong way to play the hand, and that is folding... NEVER fold here. If you fold here, it bascially means you have absolutley no concept of the mathematics of poker. I would highly recommend learning some simple / common EV spots, cause that's a very significant thing that occurs several times per session

oh hellz yes clear jam if for nothing else than da lulz

wut a delicious draw

wow after running this on stove i can't believe I guesstimated our equity so closely :D

I say calling in this situation versus an aggro player is bad because he can't be barreling and expecting you to fold after you proceed with the turn. With a 450bb stack you'd think he knows a thing or two? Yes, if you're going to play this shove the turn or fold. I'm leaning toward fold because a majority of the time you're shoving into a polarized range thats mostly weighted toward nutter butters. You'd be coinflipping between HIS combo draws and way behind the rest of the time. Most players at this stake are NOT playing hands weaker than yours this aggressively often enough, and definitely not pure bluffing. You're playing into his over aggressive game scheme like a puppet. But, clearly, it is up to you to choose. Just in my personal experience, I've just found that shoving here loses me more money than I need to.

On March 11 2010 23:57 vegable wrote: Calling here is pretty bad because you'll look absolutely retarded on a blank river, plus your hand is face up as a medium hand by then.

what's so retarded about hitting the nuts and getting paid/checking back air cuz we have no fold equity?

you may have calculated your equity correctly but you still ended up with the wrong answer. we call 15 to win the pot plus the rest of his stack which is $60 total. we're getting 3:1 implied and our equity is 2.3:1 (we need 25% pot equity to break even but we have 30%), thus we should never be folding here.

On March 12 2010 01:53 vegable wrote: With a 450bb stack you'd think he knows a thing or two?

lol what

i generally shove here just because i see folds sometimes lol results oriented!!!!!!!!!!

On March 12 2010 01:53 vegable wrote: a majority of the time you're shoving into a polarized range thats mostly weighted toward nutter butters.....Most players at this stake are NOT playing hands weaker than yours this aggressively often enough, and definitely not pure bluffing

So then wouldnt calling and hitting on the river result in a nice payoff?

You'd be coinflipping between HIS combo draws and way behind the rest of the time.

What combo draws are you worried that he has here?

well I shipped it, Villain showed Ad7d, for a pair and a FD. river was a blank and I lost the hand.
it got me to think- if I would have just called the turn, he might have checked a blank river and allow me to bluff shove (although I doubt I would actually go for it).
what do you guys think about this thought process?

also if I just missed and he shoves I lose 25$ less on river.
so isn't flatting slightly better?

huh

when u get in these spots nobody is folding anything ever what planet r u from?

On March 12 2010 05:06 rozyboy wrote: also if I just missed and he shoves I lose 25$ less on river. so isn't flatting slightly better?

issue being that he may very well have a marginal draw heavy hand as well. also, a lot of hands that he could have here he wouldn't get it in on a river when u hit your draw.

On March 12 2010 01:53 vegable wrote: wow after running this on stove i can't believe I guesstimated our equity so closely :D I say calling in this situation versus an aggro player is bad because he can't be barreling and expecting you to fold after you proceed with the turn. With a 450bb stack you'd think he knows a thing or two? Yes, if you're going to play this shove the turn or fold. I'm leaning toward fold because a majority of the time you're shoving into a polarized range thats mostly weighted toward nutter butters. You'd be coinflipping between HIS combo draws and way behind the rest of the time. Most players at this stake are NOT playing hands weaker than yours this aggressively often enough, and definitely not pure bluffing. You're playing into his over aggressive game scheme like a puppet. But, clearly, it is up to you to choose. Just in my personal experience, I've just found that shoving here loses me more money than I need to.

Wow, I don't normally say aynthing harsh but you're an idiot.

I think here w/out reeds call>shove>fold

"With a 450bb stack he knows a thing or two?" LOL this is 25c/50c. We're drawing to the nuts (practically) both ways, so what, if a club hits he's gonna think "oh the club hit, I've got a 450 bb stack and am obviously very clever so realise he must have a club so wont continue my value/bluff"

"You're playing into his overaggressive game scheme like a puppet" What a troll, I imagine you don't know anything about poker, and if indeed you are the guy who I played 5/10 hu with occasionally back on ongame with I think the same name then if I remember correctly then you did indeed know nothing about poker.

"I say calling in this situation versus an aggro player is bad because he can't be barreling and expecting you to fold after you proceed with the turn. With a 450bb stack you'd think he knows a thing or two?" - What, so he's never going to push 2 pairs/sets on the river when we hit our card, and going to check fold giving us no implied odds? I don't think so... If so, why not just call and then shove any club/diamond/straight/Backdoor anything draw because he has a 450bb stack he knows we're gonna have a draw and is going to fold - lol.

Your post was one of the most retarded I've ever seen, not because it was wrong because everyone makes mistakes but you felt compelled to sound smug and superior when everything you say is absolute bs.

AND LOL to your first post where you narrowed his range down to 3 hands with the following info - he called preflop, c/r'd the flop and bet the turn. You're an expert obv.

On March 12 2010 05:06 rozyboy wrote: also if I just missed and he shoves I lose 25$ less on river. so isn't flatting slightly better?

Yes, but if he's bluffing or has a weak hand and does find a pass on the turn a very small percentage of the time it'll show an overall profit greater than calling and getting it in when we hit. Not going to do the maths now but I'm sure you can manage it.

The issue here is how often is he passing to our re-ship on the turn and I can't say for certain (obviously lol) But I have a suspicion it's probably going to be less than is necessary for this ship to be more profitable than the call here.

As the stakes increase and the opponents get more tricky and less willing to stack off (cos its like 600 bucks instead of 50) the push on the turn becomes better and better, I think in this spot he practically only releases a stone cold bluff or real weak holdings so I think its close but as I said a few times already I think I lean towards the call.