Is this ok?

without reads

Submitted by : player999

PokerStars Game #58613728030: Tournament #409010704, $50+$5 USD Holdem No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2011/03/03 21:33:37 ART [2011/03/03 19:33:37 ET]
Table 409010704 29 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Hero (14225 in chips)
Seat 2: Acir28 (14244 in chips)
Seat 3: ozzyrocks111 (19283 in chips)
Seat 4: DimaDima13 (7879 in chips)
Seat 5: serb2127 (10899 in chips)
Seat 6: Tonbanker (20171 in chips)
Seat 7: iloseflips24 (4240 in chips)
Seat 8: UhhMee (8111 in chips)
Seat 9: tiggy15 (28964 in chips)
Hero: posts the ante 25
Acir28: posts the ante 25
ozzyrocks111: posts the ante 25
DimaDima13: posts the ante 25
serb2127: posts the ante 25
Tonbanker: posts the ante 25
iloseflips24: posts the ante 25
UhhMee: posts the ante 25
tiggy15: posts the ante 25
UhhMee: posts small blind 125
tiggy15: posts big blind 250

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
Hero: raises 375 to 625
Acir28: folds
ozzyrocks111: calls 625
DimaDima13: calls 625
serb2127: folds
Tonbanker: folds
iloseflips24: folds
UhhMee: folds
tiggy15: calls 375

Flop (Pot : $2,850.00)

   
tiggy15: bets 2250
Hero: raises 4500 to 6750
ozzyrocks111: raises 11883 to 18633 and is all-in
DimaDima13: folds
tiggy15: folds
Hero: folds
Uncalled bet (11883) returned to ozzyrocks111
ozzyrocks111 collected 18600 from pot
ozzyrocks111: doesnt show hand

Summary
Total pot 18600 | Rake 0
Board  
Seat 1: Hero folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Acir28 folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 3: ozzyrocks111 collected (18600)
Seat 4: DimaDima13 folded on the Flop
Seat 5: serb2127 folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 6: Tonbanker folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 7: iloseflips24 (button) folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 8: UhhMee (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: tiggy15 (big blind) folded on the Flop

I think you should fold to the flop lead. His line is strong here leading oop into 3 players one of which is the pfr especially on this wet of a board. Feels like you turned AA into a bluff here. This hit pretty much all villains range except those with small pairs setmining. The thing I find weird is that the bb folded. I dunno I feel like his range for leading into 3 players should be pretty strong there.

I was stacking off vs him, think he leads all Jx here

so no, I'm not turning it into a bluff

naw I definitely wouldnt fold to flop lead. I like raising, possibly/probably slightly less though, and when that other guy comes over the top he's screaming qt or set. it's a shitty spot, to me it looks like you couldve lost about 1000 less through raising a smaller amount, but I don't see how you can just outright fold.

kinda shit indeed but i'd call it anyway. you have about half of your stack already invested, so maybe im wrong but like i said im calling the fucker, maybe he's tens

yeah thats what I was worried, maybe he has some JT/TT even QQ/KK (he was first to flat pf)

i hate your bet sizing pre. It's not the biggest deal in the world but I don't think you'll yield much profit in the long run with AA by 2.5x-ing 50 bb's from utg with antes in a $50 tournament on stars. Your hand is 100% face up. Other than that I don't mind your play, like others said, maybe raise 1000 less on flop, but probably a solid fold. folding to flop lead is terrible- shoving would be better than folding imo, although that would be terrible as well.

how the hell is his hand face up from the preflop bet? why would utg +2 and +3 call if they knew he had aces? 2.5 is perfectly standard post-ante.

and yea I also think that sometimes sometimes you run into TT or JT (or even QJ) here but I think the set/qt hands are far more frequent. not only that, but JT ends up beating you 38% of the time - but if he has qt you're drawing nearly dead, and vs sets you have 2 outs..

u can probably 4900 this to the lead, anyone with sense will know ur inviting action, which is fine, we want senseless 4900 calls for the ezpz turn ship

dont fold after u raise to this sizing

looks fine, dont have to make it THAT big just because something like this can happen, but if u think this sizing looks stronger than 5850 then its 100% fine

looks fine, dont have to make it THAT big just because something like this can happen, but if u think this sizing looks stronger than 5850 then its 100% fine

if youre gonna be getting it in against the donker raise is fine. but in practice you need a stiff read to do this and i think flatting is always going to be bettter.

ozzyrocks111: calls 625


he flats from EP vs our UTG, i think TT, QQ-KK rep a decent % of his range in addition to sets 100% more hand combos of non set strong hands then actual sets ;-0 I think theres no way we should be rationally folding w/ these pot odds

That + we have almost 50% of our stack in the pot already, the EV of winning this pot and having a massive stack compared to being the shortstack at the table also IMO pushes this towards a call



Board: 8s Jh 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.312% 49.17% 02.14% 121221 5268.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 48.688% 46.55% 02.14% 114753 5268.00 { 88+, AJs-ATs, QTs+, JTs }

This is a super pesimistic range BTW

we are getting almost 3:1 on our money, no way anyone can give me a range we are less then 25% against, taking it further, theres almost no range we are less then 40% vs

lol im terrible

On March 04 2011 02:23 Liquid`Drone wrote: naw I definitely wouldnt fold to flop lead. I like raising, possibly/probably slightly less though, and when that other guy comes over the top he's screaming qt or set. it's a shitty spot, to me it looks like you couldve lost about 1000 less through raising a smaller amount, but I don't see how you can just outright fold.

Yeah I totally agree here... A raise (even if it's a small one) looks soooo strong here. Definitely could've saved a good amt of chips by raising a smaller size imo.

optimistic:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

72,270 games 0.001 secs 72,270,000 games/sec

Board: 8s Jh 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.011% 30.92% 01.09% 22343 791.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 67.989% 66.89% 01.09% 48345 791.00 { KK-JJ, 99-88, QTs, J8s+, T7s, 98s, QTo, J9o+, 98o }

less optimistic:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

34,650 games 0.005 secs 6,930,000 games/sec

Board: 8s Jh 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 09.253% 08.24% 01.01% 2855 351.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 90.747% 89.73% 01.01% 31093 351.00 { JJ, 99-88, QTs, J9s-J8s, T7s, 98s, QTo }

--- Nuked ---