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Everyones better each day and player volume decrease over time
Still it may be some profit to be made at:
Razz (2/4 to 5/10 mostly): 5.69 BB/100 in 5K hands with SD of 8.874. That means that in a worst case scenario I should be a 2BB/100
Triple Draw (2/4 to 15/30 mostly): 1.95 BB/100 in 35K hands with SD of 19.52. That means that I could be a loser and that's not a reasonable sample size.
Badugi (2/4 to 5/10 mostly): -2.07 BB/100 in 11K hands. Not a sample, but a winner without rake. Still a small chance to be a 1BB/100 winner with bad luck. But I better try to fix leaks, table select harder and put more volume before reaching conclusions
Thanks to MadeInPolanD who post in the "petition against spin n go" thread this link:
http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
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| ADZ124: why do people put pictures of their child in stars.. its like please help feed my child im a fish i cant play? | Last edit: 12/10/2014 06:42 |
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Silver_nz New Zealand. Oct 12 2014 06:36. Posts 5647 | | | |
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With no rake:
Razz: +8.67, with estimated 30% rakeback: +6.584
TD: +7.22, with estimated 30% rakeback: +3.531 (Now, yeah, 35K hands its a decent sample size to be considered a winner)
Badugi: +2.81, with estimated 30% rakeback: -0.606 |
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| ADZ124: why do people put pictures of their child in stars.. its like please help feed my child im a fish i cant play? | Last edit: 12/10/2014 06:59 |
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| | Razz (2/4 to 5/10 mostly): 5.69 BB/100 in 5K hands with SD of 8.874. That means that in a worst case scenario I should be a 2BB/100 |
the worst case imo is that your assumption of IID random variables does not hold, estimates are shit and the actual expected value is around 0.5BB/100.
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When I say worst case scenario I mean a case with 95% certainity. Its all about how I itnerpretate data. There's also a chance to have variance of variance (not a good sample to estimate variance). Im almost sure as well that I should be at least a 2BB/100 in Razz becouse opponents mistakes are almost always seen and quantifiable. Since Razz its one of the most boring games and mental demanding I've always choosen the best games (that's why the low volume) |
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| ADZ124: why do people put pictures of their child in stars.. its like please help feed my child im a fish i cant play? | |
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pff, too bad, i just realized i had SB/100, so, real numbers are
R: 3.26 BB/100 with 30% rb
TD: 1.76 BB/100 with 30% rb
Badugi: -0.303 BB/100 with 30% rb |
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| ADZ124: why do people put pictures of their child in stars.. its like please help feed my child im a fish i cant play? | |
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