UFC 170: Rousey vs. McMann

Date: Saturday, February 22nd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card Time (PPV): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (PPV)

Ronda Rousey (8-0) vs. Sara McMann (7-0) (Women's Bantamweight Championship)
Daniel Cormier (13-0) vs. Patrick Cummins (4-0) (Light Heavyweight)
Rory MacDonald (15-2) vs. Demian Maia (18-5) (Welterweight)
Mike Pyle (25-9-1) vs. TJ Waldburger (16-8) (Welterweight)
Robert Whittaker (11-3) vs. Stephen Thompson (8-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Alexis Davis (15-5) vs. Jessica Eye (10-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Raphael Assuncao (21-4) vs. Pedro Munhoz (10-0) (Bantamweight)
Cody Gibson (11-3) vs. Aljamain Sterling (8-0) (Bantamweight)
Zach Makovsky (17-4) vs. Josh Sampo (11-2) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Rafaello Oliveira (17-7) vs. Erik Koch (13-3) (Lightweight)
Ernest Chavez (6-0) vs. Yosdenis Cedeno (9-2) (Lightweight)

Other

- A bout between Gilbert Melendez and Khabib Nurmagomedov was briefly linked to this event. The fight was later cancelled due to undisclosed reasons.
- Lucas Martins was expected to face Bryan Caraway at this event. However, Caraway pulled out of the bout citing an injury and was replaced by UFC newcomer Aljamain Sterling. Martins ended up also getting injured and was replaced by UFC newcomer Cody Gibson.
- Francisco Rivera was expected to face Raphael Assunção on this card. However, Rivera injured his hand and was forced out of the bout. He was replaced by UFC newcomer Pedro Munhoz.
- A bout between Rafael dos Anjos and Rustam Khabilov was expected to take place on this card. However, the fight was cancelled due to injury.
- A bout between Rashad Evans and Daniel Cormier was expected to take place on this card. However, the fight was removed from this card due to Evans sustaining a leg injury. He was replaced by undefeated newcomer and Strikeforce veteran Patrick Cummins.

This card was originally supposed to be sick good, but there were multiple injuries, so now it's turned into an average card. I'll take it though.

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My first thoughts:

• Rousey > McMann (Too soon for McMann. If Ronda wanted to, she could end this fight in round 1, but I think Rousey will respect McMann in this fight, and they'll end up starting round 2, especially since Ronda's hands are better than McMann's, which tells you a lot.)
• Cormier > Cummins (Cormier ITD. I think Cormier will win via head kick KO, or head kick into a TKO.)
• MacDonald > Maia (MacDonald via decision.)
• Pyle > Waldburger (Both guys have terrible chins, both are good at BJJ, Pyle has the power in his hands. I do think Waldburger's BJJ is a little better though.)
• Thompson > Whittaker (Fight goes the distance. It will be a close fight, so I wouldn't knock a bet on Whittaker's ML or Whittaker +3.5 points. What I've noticed from Whittaker is that he has variations of the way he holds his left hand when he strikes, but it's always a variation of the left hand being held low, which will let Thompson land at least 1 head kick imo.)
• Eye > Davis (Loved the line when I saw it. Eye is the much better boxer, and she knows how to hold her opponents against the cage if need be. Both have BJJ skills, but I don't see it hitting the floor unless Eye takes it there, or unless one of them gets tripped. Eye's ML at +150 and whatever her +3.5 points will be is my favorite bet on the card. If Eye's +3.5 handicap is anything under -180, it will be my biggest bet of the night.)
• Assuncao > Munhoz (Munhoz is skilled, but he's a lesser version of Assuncao at this early point of his career, and Munhoz is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement. I can see this going the distance, and I might take Munhoz's +3.5 line.)
• Gibson > Sterling (Haven't seen Sterling fight yet, but I do like Gibson as a fighter. Need to watch some tape on Sterling.)
• Sampo > Makovsky (These two are very close in skill, but Sampo is the better overall grappler, and he goes for the kill more on the ground than the average guy. I see this going the distance, but Sampo via submission wouldn't surprise me.)
• Koch > Oliveira (Scary fight imo. Koch has had some chin issues, but I think he might be able to last here. I think this fight goes the distance, unless Koch can get a submission. Koch is probably the worst striker from Roufusport that fights in the UFC, although he isn't bad, I just think his BJJ is better than his striking.)
• Ernest Chavez vs. Yosdenis Cedeno (Never heard of these guys before. Need to watch tape.)

What kind of odds would you need before you bet Maia?

On February 17 2014 07:50 DustySwedeDude wrote: What kind of odds would you need before you bet Maia?

I've never thought much of Maia. The only bet I'd place on Maia would be his +3.5 line, but it would have to be 5-135 or better.

No way Rory tries to knock Maia out, because that would leave him open to getting taken down, and if you've ever seen Rory fight before, he not that type of a fighter in the first place, I actually think his striking sucks. Rory keeps the distance and out-points dangerous opponents, and closes the distance to manhandle weaker opponents.

No way will Rory want to be on the ground against Maia. Rory might get a take down, but just lay there to waste time and/or eventually create space to stand back up.

The more I think about it, Maia +3.5 seems better, as all he needs to do is be active and come forward. His chin is good and Rory isn't super aggressive on the feet, he'll probably use his jab a lot and throw his telegraphed head kick. Maia needs to fight like he wants it though, or else he'll end up falling into Rory's game and being at the end of his reach.

Final pick: fight goes the distance, and Maia +3.5 points.

mcmann is basically drawing dead vs ronda. ronda should be -2000 here. this fight is basically the equivalent of jon jones vs jake rosholt.

good BJJ scout breakdown on it:


can someone explain to me how mcmann has any chance whatsoever of winning?

On February 17 2014 14:10 Daut wrote: mcmann is basically drawing dead vs ronda. ronda should be -2000 here good BJJ scout breakdown on it:

Yeah, McMann is taking this fight too early in her career. She constantly gets herself into bad spots on the ground and only gets out of them because she powers her way out of them. Ronda is stronger and more skilled in submissions than McMann's previous opponents.

I just added a bet on o1.5 for the Ronda/McMann fight. I'm not too wild about it, but I bet it cuz I think Ronda will respect McMann in the first round and try to out-box her because McMann's hands aren't good.

Also, when you post YouTube videos (Daut), you always post the HTML version for some reason. You can just post the regular YouTube link and it will show up. Not sure if you were aware of it or not.

Ronda by submission at -160 seems pretty good

If Rory pulls that defencive bulshit again i'm getting off the fan train. Fucking calculate on your calculator or something. When you enter the cage atleast make an attempt of some sort.

gonna bet on my precious Ronda

On February 17 2014 16:29 gebbstet wrote: Ronda by submission at -160 seems pretty good

ez money. I can't believe she's only -390

I watched that vid long ago (the breakdown) and noticed that Jacare was never on his toes on the ground either.. weird

McMann - ring rust 301 days (sick family member), pulled out of Kaufman fight
Cummins - ring rust 280 days, short notice (less than 1 week) in for Rashad
Pyle - returning from Brown KO loss
Waldburger - returning from Amagov KO loss
Munhoz - short notice (less than 1 week)
Sterling - short notice (2 weeks) in for Bryan Caraway
Gibson - short notice (less than 1 week) in for Lucas Martins
Oliveira - ring rust 231 days, returning from Barboza TKO loss
Chavez - ring rust 267 days, was supposed to fight Dionisio Ramirez Oct 25

I think Ronda's judo is so dominant because the lack of strikers in the women's division - she can easily get in the clinch and throw her opponent without being punished

I was waiting for Cormier-Rashad for a long time.Not because i am fan of either of them but because i had no idea how the fight would go.Too bad it is not happening.
Also do not be so confidend abour Ronda winning easily.I think it is possible for Sara to just overpower her and brake her.Wrestlers are sick.Ronda is tough but will she outwrestle Sara-no way.
It will be like GSP vs Johnny.You remember before the fight Hendricks said-I will smash GSP in a wrestling match and everyone was sceptical but we know what happened so.
I think this is great opportunity for the people who bet to look for the surprise and bet good money on Sara McMann.

While I agree Ronda has a good edge on the ground, I think Sara's gameplan is going to definitely be to stand and wang like it was against Baszler. I think her stand up is probably better than Ronda's, and shes got decent power for a chick.

That said I've only watched two Sara fights.

interesting fight. sara's boxing reminds me of michael chandler's. she kinda just walks and wings punches and doesnt really defend much. baszler was undoubtedly the better striker here but sara's was better than i remembered and landed some good shots. i suspect ronda will be able to land shots on her from the outside cause she seems like a more skilled striker, but sara does punch harder. RR strikes a bit like jon jones (lots of kicks, no real hard strikes but keeps busy) vs michael chandler (bull rushing, punches in flurries, bad defense).

sara is just such a bad submission grappler. she dives into submissions constantly. i dont see how she can hang with ronda there at all. she got on top round 2 and was swept really quickly and nearly kneebarred. in other fights ive seen her dive into triangles.

was a really close fight though. round 1 was razor thin either way, round 2 was definitely baszler's and round 3 was definitely sara's. wouldnt fault anyone for giving it to shayna.

i dunno i still dont see her beating RR in a 5 round fight. but shes definitely a really good athlete, ok striker and great wrestler. her path to victory is so difficult though

I just want to see Cormier beat the shit out of Cummins for being a bitch and bringing up shit that happened during training.

jesus Cormier -1200 on Bovada lol