[nl100]JKs turned monster draw

Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit.

Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.

On March 10 2012 16:46 Twisted wrote: Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit. Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.

agree. one of those spots where i really dont think it matters a whole lot what you do, both plays seem reasonable/fine. i dont even know what i do more often. probably just shove over guys that 2 barrel a high percentage and call vs those who dont

Yea if you know he is never bluffing there you should obv call but if you think you have some FE (not a lot is needed given our raw equity) you should ship.

thanks guys

I'm pretty sure if he only folds like 15% of the time here this is an ez ship.

that said if that 15% only includes his air balls then i might tend to flat more. If he snaps most of his value range then call is probably better since well...this guy ain't folding teh queen

Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote: Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

LOL

On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote: Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

brilliant

lol

Call is the better EV option in most cases, but both are +EV. Here is a detailed CREV/STOXEV analysis why:

CREV/STOXEV analysis

Feel free to point out mistakes or ask questions.

double post

Says its a private video?

On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote: Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

*kaching*
A definition of poker has been found.

On May 05 2012 07:34 TianYuan wrote: Says its a private video?

Apologies, Vimeo is very weird. I keep making it public and saving, but it keeps becoming private..Hopefully it stays public now..

pretty cool stuff

yeah its a neat program, thanks for video,
think it needs a few sets of realistic river assumptions to be meaningful

it is still private for me lol
maybe ur turning it public for certain amount of time?

On May 06 2012 13:13 ShLiM wrote: it is still private for me lol maybe ur turning it public for certain amount of time?

There seems to be an issue with Vimeo, e-mailed suppport. In the meantime use the following youtube link and make sure to watch in HD:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYzdTrxSPLw

On May 06 2012 12:14 Minsk wrote: yeah its a neat program, thanks for video, think it needs a few sets of realistic river assumptions to be meaningful

You can set up scenarios for different river cards, but that will complicate the analysis and will take much more time to setup. If you use the program on a regular basis, you will know that often you have to make approximations and you do not always need a precise EV number. More often than not having a general trend will be enough to give you an idea how to react in different situations based on variables and conditions. Doing quick, but regular hand reviews with CREV is much better than spending too much time on 1 hand and doing it very infrequently.

I still believe the analysis to be meaningful. Although the river part of the tree might seem very simplistic, in fact, it covers good ground. Let me clarify the river part as I did not cover it in much detail in the video:
The main assumptions are that Hero will never bluff if villain checks and that villain always checks unless he has TP or better. However, when villain checks missed AJ and AK and Hero checks back then villain always wins vs KdJd. This is the equivalent of villain always bluffing with these hands and us folding unless we have the nuts. In the case of villain having KJ miss and river going check+check then it is split pot, which roughly similar to bluffing half the time or less with this hand. Only 9d8d loses when checking river.

Overall, you can see that the general trend is that Hero can only improve his EV if we spend more time and tweak the river scenarios. Closer to reality, villain will not have such high bluffing frequencies on the river and he will lose the hand certain percentage of the time when he checks river as Hero bluffs. Therefore, the turn call scenario will become even more +EV, which will simply reaffirm that calling is the better choice on the turn.

On March 10 2012 16:46 Twisted wrote: Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit. Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.

What's your move if this is a newer villain and you barely have any reads on him?