the villian in a good 22/18 winning reg over 5k sample, he leads 15% , he 3bets 11% versus steal , he ch raises 16%. I dont think he will never lead TANK shove a made hand here, because i expect him to ch raise everything he wants to put money in with? Is this too light ?

I wish people would answer so I can know too. :D

Wonder if it wouldn't be better to call and ship over a safe turn/call down if we think he's more likely to have a draw --? Like, if you think he's only gonna c/raise his real value hands anyway, then isnt the lead enough info on its own and we know about as much as we do after we raise, because he's obviously not gonna bet/call a set here.

hmm , it might yeah , i actually like what you said but he might do smthing gay like ch the turn ... and there are a lot of phucked up turn cards in the deck ...

I mean, you have position on the turn o_O

It's not exactly a wonderful spot if you bet turn and get shoved on, I agree, but also not like he's gonna c/shove turn always, or even like you have to bet.