Yeah preflop is horrible by him, I guess the way he sees it is that they're slightly deep and the 3bet isn't that much more to call pre, but his hand is simply too weak and he's out of position, I don't see how he can profit long term calling there, but whatever.
Anyway, I like how the played the flop, I think it's the best option when you consider all the things that can happen when you raise and all the things that can happen when you call... Firstly, his hand is good enough in absolute terms to get it in profitably on the flop for a few reasons. First of all, his absolute hand strength. Since dj has a wide 3betting range in spots like this, and is thus going to have airball a whole lot on this board, and because 96s is not beaten by too many combinations of hands relative to the number of combination of hands that 96s beats there is going to be a lot of immediate fold equity, and taking down the pot without showdown in nanonoko's spot would be a good result. I dunno what dj's 3betting range is exactly so I dunno if he'd 3bet a hand that is very flattable like T9s, 98s or 22 here, but 96s is really only beaten by 88+ and bigger 9xs, lots of which can be discounted cause he'd probably flat them a lot. Secondly equity vs dj's range when the money does go all in, which is going to include a lot of draws on this board, some that 96s beats such as 76 or 64ss as an example, some that 96s is flipping with like 8xss, AJss, JT etc, and a couple that 96s is slightly behind like QJss, JTss etc. Thirdly, by making this flop raise he can potentially induce a shove with hands that 96s beats that weren't planning on putting much money in on later streets, for example dj "could" cbet with 87s (I expect he checks back the flop with 8x without spades so it's a minor consideration, but some people would cbet, 3bet shove an 8x in this spot) here to induce a check raise bluff and then shove thinking that nanonoko is gonna bluff a lot, won't have many 9x or 8x hands and only has monsters which there are a small amount of, draws or air, and 96s beats that. He could potentially induce a small flop 3bet with QK, I know these sound unlikely, but it does happen from time and time and makes this play with 96s even cooler in my opinion. Equity when it goes all in, potential to induce rebluffs or light shoves that wouldn't be putting much money in if we tried to call, plus immediate fold equity is going to make this play profitable for nanonoko. Furthermore, this is great for metagame, in the future when he flats pre with QK in this spot and a similar flop comes down, he can check raise the flop credibly since dj knows he can get it in thin in spots like this, or it could potentially make dj play straightforward and not cbet as much on these types of flop and simply give up sometimes when he has total air like 64hh or whatever allowing nanonoko to steal some pots on the turn when he has nothing.
Evaluating a call instead of a raise is tough, but considering top pair is only a 9 there's many turn scarecards. T-A is bad, a spade is bad, a 7 could be bad even though it increases 96s' equity vs overpairs, it makes some hands beat 96s that 96s was beating/flipping with on the flop. By flatting the flop you're giving the opponent SO MANY opportunities to get you off of a hand that was probably profitable to get it in with on the flop, and that would suck. It's very difficult to make good decisions when the turn comes a spade and he bets again cause you're like "well he can definitely be continuing to bet with AQ, AK, or whatever with the ace of spades", but also all his suited connector hands that had spades now have you drawing dead, and you have less equity vs the overpairs with a spade in them, it's difficult to make good decisions when a king comes on the turn because you know he's bluffing it a ton with air, but what can you do about it? you can try and call down but half the time you end up seeing something like K3s and you're like fuck I let him draw out and then paid him off aswell, I suck.
Even though a lot of the reason to get it in is just protection/making the hand easier to play, I think it's a lot better than calling and trying to make good decisions out of position because raising to get it in is probably breakeven at worst and calling is going to make your life hell in a spot where can simply get it in on the flop profitably. Those are my feelings anyway. |
(a pair of Nines)
Czech Republic. Aug 27 2009 18:20. Posts 8915
