PokerStars Game #24178165953: Holdem No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2009/01/22 22:07:37 ET
Table Alkimos III 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Hog77 ($34.15 in chips)
Seat 2: Parab85 ($14.30 in chips)
Seat 3: snapoffmode ($25 in chips)
Seat 5: MSeasons ($52.40 in chips)
Seat 6: Uptown133 ($25 in chips)
Hog77: posts small blind $0.10
Parab85: posts big blind $0.25
Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to Uptown133 
snapoffmode: raises $0.50 to $0.75
MSeasons: folds
Uptown133: calls $0.75
pobalasaroo1 joins the table at seat #4
Hog77: calls $0.65
Parab85: folds
Flop(Odds) (Pot : $2.50)
Hog77: checks
snapoffmode: bets $2.50
Uptown133: raises $5.50 to $8
Hog77: folds
snapoffmode: raises $12.50 to $20.50
Uptown133: raises $3.75 to $24.25 and is all-in
snapoffmode: calls $3.75 and is all-in
Turn(Odds) (Pot : $51.00)
River (Pot : $51.00)
Showdown
snapoffmode: shows 
(a straight, Four to Eight)
Uptown133: mucks hand
snapoffmode collected $49 from pot
Summary
Total pot $51 | Rake $2
Board
Seat 1: Hog77 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Parab85 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: snapoffmode showed and won ($49) with a straight, Four to Eight
Seat 5: MSeasons folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 6: Uptown133 (button) mucked
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RICHI8 United States. Jan 22 2009 22:12. Posts 1341 | | | |
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Uptown . Jan 22 2009 22:13. Posts 3557 | | |
guess I was a dog on the exact hand but pretty sure considering his range this is fine. Esp since I have "top" set
33/22 over 9 hands. |
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Parker417 United States. Jan 22 2009 22:16. Posts 331 | | |
so sick man. Sick thing is this dude could have folded it seems. just unlucky  |
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Sicks Macks United States. Jan 22 2009 22:18. Posts 3929 | | |
| | On January 22 2009 21:13 Uptown wrote:
guess I was a dog on the exact hand but pretty sure considering his range this is fine. Esp since I have "top" set
33/22 over 9 hands. |
what? You were a 2-1 favorite against his exact hand on the flop. |
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Uptown . Jan 22 2009 22:21. Posts 3557 | | |
really? god fucking damn ok I gotta go do some math then |
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vlseph United States. Jan 22 2009 22:22. Posts 3026 | | |
just click the odds button next to flop |
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| The only hands a nit balances in his range are the nuts, the second nuts, and the third nuts. | |
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Shad United Kingdom. Jan 22 2009 22:22. Posts 866 | | |
You realise you just click 'odds' on this very page? |
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| Naolan wrote: for $25 i will make a new account. Liquid`Meat: for $0,- i ban your account. | |
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Muhweli Finland. Jan 22 2009 22:30. Posts 10663 | | |
Pretty sure you are inbetter shape than this most of the time anyway. You're only behind a made straight you know and you have 30%+ vs that too. |
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| Floofy says: my dick is easily bigger than 90% of guys i checked it on the net | Floofy says: i im also doing movements | |
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Uptown . Jan 22 2009 22:31. Posts 3557 | | |
ok, sooo he wins if he makes his gutshot or flush. 4 outs for the gutshot, and 9-1=8 outs for the flush b/c the 5s will give me a boat.
For me, to beat his hands I need a boat or four of a kind. that's 7 outs. Status Quo, I'm ahead.
P of him hitting his outs is 12x4=48% + a few so roughly 50%ish
now umm, I need to factor in the chances I hit my outs... I'm not exactly sure how to do this, I doubt I can just calculate a % and subtract? If I can, then it's like 7x4=28% + a few = 30% ish
so I'm 80%?
edit: ok that's definitely not how to do it
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| Half Pot! | Last edit: 22/01/2009 22:34 |
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Uptown . Jan 22 2009 22:32. Posts 3557 | | |
| | On January 22 2009 21:22 vlseph wrote:
just click the odds button next to flop |
| | On January 22 2009 21:22 Shad wrote:
You realise you just click 'odds' on this very page? |
OH WHAT TEH FUCK |
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Muhweli Finland. Jan 22 2009 22:48. Posts 10663 | | |
Even the outs * 4 is flawed. I mean it provides a neat approximation but the outs*4 is more accurate the less outs there are (drawing graphs of the actual functions would show you why).
For a simplified case, let's say you had AA here. He would still win if the flush hits, but you don't have the redraw (makes it slightly easier to calculate here I suppose). In that case, he'd have 12 outs and there are 52-4 = 48 cards left in the deck.
His equity will then be:
1-(36/48)*(35/47) = 0.4414... ~= 44% (36 = 48-opponent's outs)
In other words, 100% - the chance of him NOT hitting.
In the case of you having the redraw, you just have to factor in all the scenarios. Oh and a good approximation for calculating your "boat" odds is your outs on the flop (7) + added outs on the turn divided by two. So basically, you'll average roughtly 8.5 outs on your boat. So you'll get a decent approximation of your equity by doing this:
(opponent's equity) * (39.5/48)*(38.5/47) = 0.29754... ~= 30%
Again though, this isn't how it's really done but it simplifies the problem and the result is reasonably accurate. |
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| Floofy says: my dick is easily bigger than 90% of guys i checked it on the net | Floofy says: i im also doing movements | |
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