Submitted by : Eerik

PokerStars Game #3980442531: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2006/02/15 - 12:24:16 (ET)
Table 'Sun V' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: oktoplay ($31.05 in chips)
Seat 2: Eerik ($59.35 in chips)
Seat 3: O the kid ($38.40 in chips)
Seat 4: Hornets89 ($47.45 in chips)
Seat 5: Fed Chair ($60.60 in chips)
Seat 6: Abunakkashii ($68.80 in chips)
Seat 7: Tommen ($93.85 in chips)
Seat 8: DPG4EVER ($28 in chips)
Seat 9: tohdoubled67 ($100.20 in chips)
Abunakkashii: posts small blind $0.25
Tommen: posts big blind $0.50

Holecards
Dealt to Eerik
DPG4EVER: calls $0.50
tohdoubled67: folds
oktoplay: folds
Eerik: calls $0.50
O the kid: folds
Hornets89: folds
Fed Chair: calls $0.50
Abunakkashii: folds
Tommen: checks

Flop (Pot : $2.25)

   
Tommen: checks
DPG4EVER: checks
Eerik: bets $2
Fed Chair: raises $5 to $7
Tommen: folds
DPG4EVER: folds
Eerik: raises $13 to $20
Fed Chair: raises $40.10 to $60.10 and is all-in
Eerik: calls $38.85 and is all-in

Turn (Pot : $122.45)

   

River (Pot : $122.45)

   

Showdown
Eerik: shows (three of a kind, Fives)
Fed Chair: shows (a flush, Queen high)
Fed Chair collected $116.95 from pot

Summary
Total pot $119.95 | Rake $3
Board  
Seat 1: oktoplay folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Eerik showed and lost with three of a kind, Fives
Seat 3: O the kid folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hornets89 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Fed Chair (button) showed and won ($116.95) with a flush, Queen high
Seat 6: Abunakkashii (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Tommen (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: DPG4EVER folded on the Flop
Seat 9: tohdoubled67 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

bad play?

hmm i would be a bit more carefull with this board ;o

i guess so too, in an unraised pot.
hmm..
ah well. i still dont think i can get away from here without losing most of my stack anyway.

Hm.. always a hard situation, but he didn't slowplay it at all. Reading the flush with his allin here was quite easy

flush draw, and u have lowest 3 of a kind on this board, was obvious..

i don't know what to do.

yeah, you can probably save yourself $40 on this hand by folding to his push. you're only getting 1.76:1 pot odds to call the push, and you're about 2:1 to boat up. Problem is that you have bottom set. He's not likely to have QQ but may have 99. So the added probability that your chances of winning are in fact much much worse than 2:1 probably makes this a fold...but let's consider the possiblity that he has a pair + FD also. i'll do the math

You: 5d5h 68%
Villain: QdJs 32%

You: 5d5h 7%
Villain: 9d9h 93%

You: 5d5h 68%
Villain: Made flush 32%

Let's say your opponent may have a pair+FD with 15% likelihood, 99 with a 10% likelihood, and a made flush with the remaining 75% likelihood. Then, your average equity is...

.75(32%) + .10(7%) + .15(68%) = 35%, or 1.86:1 against winning. This is still a bad call.

So, here's what I conclude. When you flop bottom set on a monotone board and you face a push on the flop, you generally should probably want over 2.5:1 odds to call, because sometimes there are two possible oversets. Between 2:1 and 2.5:1, you're gonna have to use your judgment about how likely your opponent is to push while still drawing. Under 2:1 it's probably an easy fold barring a strong read.

EDIT: the above conclusion is much more applicable to unraised pots.

p.s. i'm not sure if my input is all that correct. post hand in discussion forum?

thanks to whoever fixed this as well.

anyway, on my behalf i must say that it was my first set in hours and the first one that got any action in days. so i was relatively antsy.
myth kind of pulled the whole discussion together here.
if anyone has a different point of view then speak up ;D

do not reraise this oop in an unraised pot with 4 players.
call his flop raise, check call turn check call river if no spade falls and you feel good about it

yes, makes sense.

On February 15 2006 11:09 BigBalls wrote: do not reraise this oop in an unraised pot with 4 players. call his flop raise, check call turn check call river if no spade falls and you feel good about it

stole the words right out of me.

Think about it, what is going to re-raise you with such a flop?

An agressive player might raise you with the nut flush draw, but i dont think he would re-raise all-in with a draw unless he is tagged as maniac.

Any other hand has you beat, a set or an obvious flush because a 2 pair wouldnt be that agressive with such a board.

id fold immediately

yea, i realised my mistake after i had played the hand, needed some reassurance tho.
now there's a lot of it.
in essenece, its not really a good place for a set-holder to make a lot of money, is it.
calling and the board pairing will kill the action.
going allin means youre behind.

oh well.

On February 15 2006 16:49 Eerik wrote: calling and the board pairing will kill the action.

no way, tons of people will still give a stack to your obvious boat if the board pairs