Fold equity thoughts for Christmas

I don't know if similar has been posted before, but in case anyone finds it interesting im posting it.

Since I'm drunk and bored and the family is watching telly, I decided to find the frequency with which I wish an opponent to fold in different situations, hoping that I might find a rule of thumb to estimate the value of a semibluff.

Using some basic algebra and probability you find...


Let F = The regularity (as a fraction of 1) with which I need my opponent to fold for a push to be breakeven
Let e = my chance of winning at showdown
Let r = the size of effective remaining stacks divided by the pot size

so F = [1-e(r+2)]/[1+r-e(r+2)]

so immediately we can use F=0 when e=1/(r+2)


some common examples:

Let r=1, so our push is potsized
Then it's profitable to shove if we are at least 33% to win (obviously I spose)
If we are 20% to win (5 outs region), we need opponent to fold only 28.6% of the time.

Let r=0.5, so our push is twice pot
We need 40% chance of winning to not care if opponent folds now.
If we are a mere 20% to win, we require opponent to fold 50% of the time.

Let r=2, so we're shoving for half pot
Now we only need 25% equity to not need fold equity.
If we are a miserable 10% to win, we need our opponent to fold 30% of the time.


I cant be bothered to write any more as I want to get drinking again, but I found this interesting and that it highlights the value of aggressive play.

Apologies if I rambled some or if it is all totally obvious to you.

interesting

interesting, thanks.

Immediately reminded me of Rhaegar's article

i dont understand a word of this

and i'm sober!

maybe i just dont want to understand

eh? at christmas the FE is very low

Same here iamalex hehe, always nice to read some good Christmass rambling hehe

that's like, the reason push-happieness works.

meh, math is shit

laughs at the thought of fold equity during christmas.

lol fe in xmas are you srs?

to op ty for the informative post, merry xmas