Top Set vs River 3bet deeeep.

$5/$10 NL. Villan in hand is competent loose/aggro young asian live reg. Villan opens UTG to $30 in a 8 handed game. You wake up with in UTG+1 and decide to flat instead of 3bet. Weak player on button calls and everyone else folds.

Stacks:
Hero has $2600
Button has $1000
Villan covers everyone

Flop: (Pot: $105)
UTG player bets $75, you call, button folds.

Turn: (Pot: $255)
UTG player bets $180, you call.

River: (Pot: $615)
UTG player bets $300. You raise to $750. Villan tanks for about a minute then shoves all-in for ~$1600 more... You...???

snap and hope he doesn't wake up with 9T

lol

You have a bluff catcher or do you beat some of his value range here?

So sick

I never post on LP but I'm bored right now
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Need to win 35%, worse case scenario we lose to 8 combos total (do you think based on what you saw that he probably has all t9s but not all 97s ?), if he shoves 5 worse combos we win 5/13 or 38% to have a +ev call (only 4 worse we lose money)
He has to shove his 3 JJ combos 100% of the time + 88/66 ~40% of the time -> looks optimistic
I assume we expect he's not bad enough to shove KK/AA/QJ/55 either as a bluff or for value here; could he ever be bluffing all the way with AK/diamonds draws and then decide to bluff shove riv ? 76/87 ? Has he seen you make thin value raises on the river ?

Do you guys have an aggro dynamic going on ? Has he shown down a bluff in a similar spot ? Looks like this isn't the case as you didn't include many reads.
Online that would definitely be a standard spot to call, Live it makes me want to puke fold, just can't give him credit for having any missed draw in his shoving range + he's not value shoving worse enough

On September 23 2011 01:54 JonnyCosMo wrote: You have a bluff catcher or do you beat some of his value range here?

If you have any doubt weather someone can be valuebetting worse then i think that makes it a call.

Why isnt this a snapcall -_-

How often does he have 79 or 9T here, all draws dont get there, and you crush all other sets, and its hard for him to put you on QQ or any nut-type hands here

feels like a fold to me.

On September 23 2011 09:50 wobbly_au wrote: feels like a fold to me.

explanation?

We lose to 2 hands, and questionable if he raises 79s UTG, + what Jemy said

maybe it's a fold, can you really fold? no, just call it a cooler if you lose / laugh when you see a random spazz

On September 23 2011 11:52 locoo wrote: maybe it's a fold, can you really fold? no, just call it a cooler if you lose / laugh when you see a random spazz

I think your hand is a bluffcatcher at that point, but in his spot he could potencially be turning hands he at first thought were value bets into bluffs. Feels like a fold to me, but dunno, I would most likely decide based on whether that guy has been winning or losing, whether I saw him try to bluff people off very strong hands in the past etc. Most likely I would call, lose to sthg like 9dTd and create a thread on LP about it afterwards

On September 23 2011 07:29 Stroggoz wrote: Show nested quote + On September 23 2011 01:54 JonnyCosMo wrote: You have a bluff catcher or do you beat some of his value range here? If you have any doubt weather someone can be valuebetting worse then i think that makes it a call.

My thoughts were that we have a bluff catcher, was just curious if other people felt differently about it.

Hmm, probably make it 4000. Flatting might be fine though.

I think cosmo's the reg and his opponent raised to 750 on river so he shoved thinking he'd have to fold QQ and down but didn't. cosmo always covers everyone in his HH's ^_^.

I don't think it's impossible for the player to shove JJJ over the river raise since it looks thin-valueish and not really polarized. But yeah unless there's a weird dynamic between the two players i think that JJJ shove will be rare and you aren't beating any value hands.

LoL whoosel, same thing about jonny being villain in the hand occurred to me as well for the same reason

On September 24 2011 06:17 thewh00sel wrote: I think cosmo's the reg and his opponent raised to 750 on river so he shoved thinking he'd have to fold QQ and down but didn't. cosmo always covers everyone in his HH's ^_^. I don't think it's impossible for the player to shove JJJ over the river raise since it looks thin-valueish and not really polarized. But yeah unless there's a weird dynamic between the two players i think that JJJ shove will be rare and you aren't beating any value hands.

Yes I am Villan in the hand. Interesting spot for my opponent thou. Hero did have QQ, and is a semi-competent live reg who usually plays real deep.

Honestly though I'd call

On September 24 2011 06:17 thewh00sel wrote: I think cosmo's the reg and his opponent raised to 750 on river so he shoved thinking he'd have to fold QQ and down but didn't. cosmo always covers everyone in his HH's ^_^. I don't think it's impossible for the player to shove JJJ over the river raise since it looks thin-valueish and not really polarized. But yeah unless there's a weird dynamic between the two players i think that JJJ shove will be rare and you aren't beating any value hands.

another clue is that i don't really see any merit to flatting QQ in a live game such as this one.