E3/6 combodraw on turn

I don't have the HH, these ones don't seem to convert. Game is 3/6 euro, 3 handed, villain has 860, I cover.

Preflop: Villain raise button to 18, sb folds I call 9sTs.

Flop (Pot 39): 8s2d5s

I check, Villain bets 18, I call

Turn (Pot 75): 8s2d5s7h

I??

If he has been paying attention I've been playing pretty crazy, but not yet versus him. We don't have any long term history but he has been going mad preflop and I've 4bet him once and he folded. I have a bit of a read that he cbets polarised ranges on almost all board textures, and he loves pot controlling in position. Also, how does the read about his cbetting affect my flop play? Thanks in advance...

if you don't like to c/r on flop leading flop and turn is ok imo
also if you do think he thinks that you are crazy i like leading even more since u can bet/3bet flop

pots still pretty small imo, and u have great equity. i think c/r turn is good and i think there is merit to c/calling and donking river although i'm less sure about this

(bump)

u can lead flop, or checkcall is fine aswell depends on what history u guys have, turn u can do alot of stuff as playd, u can lead, u can checkcall u can checkraise and give up river against some, bluff river against some

but i like leading turn for a smaller amount then he would have bet himself if u would have checkcalled, but not to small maybe like 46 or something

A: u will take down the pot the times he has an airhand like QJo right away on the turn instead of letting him maybe barrel again and then win the pot on the river alot either by betting or checking

B: cheaper price then check/calling

C: u take control of the pot, and can easily make a goodish valuebet on the river instead of letting it go checkcheck, i wouldnt go to big on river if u hit, since if he isnt a retard he will have a very easy fold with an overpair to a largeriverbet on either a 6 or a spade

D: by having a leading range on turns people will make mistakes against it, they dont know what to do since they are so used to regs never donkleading, u can do this with strong hands aswell and bomb it when the draws miss, they will herocall u everytime


leading turn is so much better then any of the checking options in my oppinion

i might add that i probably wouldnt bluff the river to often on the complete blanks

Solid reasonings longple, but you only pointed out the positives. What about the negatives, like what to do if you get raised etc.

then its a simple math question and if he wants to start raising a wide range in these spots then u have an easy adjustment of just lead/shoving ur 2par+

if he is raising light w his valuehands that is (any pair basically)

and if u think he is stupid and raise as a bluff here alot then u have an easy lead/ship with draws aswell


and obviously no spot is 100% perfect unless u have quads basically, against his set hands sure it might be better to checkcall but we have to play against his whole range, who cares about the megacooler 5% spots

and we have to start somewhere, its impossible to know without history how this guy will play QQ in this spot for example, if he is raising or calling against a turnlead. after u get that kind of history you just adjust, its as simple as that

if he is a guy who takes the lower variance kinda thing and just calls turn in position with all his 1 pair hands then we can start leading more draws

if he is a guy who raises any 8x+ against a lead in a spot like this, then dont lead draws, just lead strong madehands and ull get it in supergood 90% of the time

tbh I dont see a big reason to try and get him off his air now, since this particular turn is gonna get checked back a whole lot by him so you will more often than not will get a free river. You can bluff him off his air on the river anyway if you brick out completely.
The problem is of course if you check/call hes gonna play perfectly on the river, and c/r is questionable since his range for betting the turn is pretty strong. i dont know, I just like leading the turn for value in a vacuum so much more.