Why do people say rush has more variance?

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it's a pretty common misconception, as most people don't fully understand what variance actually is and just use it as a blanket term.

IT JUST DOES MAN

I would say it's a bit more variance because you play a bit blind vs opponents that you don't know, other than that it's probably just "feels" like a lot of variance just because you put in so many hands in a short period of time (can lose a lot fast, can win a lot fast etc...)

jokes aside. IF we were to totally nitpick it. yes there is more variance because we get deeper than normal on tables with other people that are also deeper. Aside from that i dont see it being much different.

I think it depends on how you play, it seems like the best way to exploit the nature of rush is to play looser and it just creates higher variance situations but only if you take that approach to it. If you want to nit it up on rush it shouldnt really affect the variance.

If we get a lil bit loser but win a lil bit more the extra edge will probably negate any increased variance due to playing loser, however playing deeper does considerably increase variance.

Less overall edge in bb/100 compared to normal games due to generally having less information on opponents+a much smaller ability to build up history/metagame type shit with people and exploit them not handling it well. Anyone else agree with that assumption?

You may have 500 hands of stats on someone in rush but I dont think you get to exploit the same individual leaks of opponents that you would notice via playing on a table with them for 2 hours+take notes. If you assume you do that element of the game pretty well I think rush diminishes your overall edge vs regulars that have an 'okay' rough TAG/LAG style but have definite exploitable leaks that you cant see/regularly exploit in rush (besides ones you can see with stats). You might pick up the odd showdown you have with them and take a note afterwards but you dont see all the showdowns they have with other people during your session and you cant have that reliable feel of how theyre playing in this session inparticular, specifically vs you. You just have some generic stats.

If there are new players in the game that youve never seen before, I think you can very viably get an excellent feel for their general play+start finding things to exploit within 20 minutes sitting on a normal table with them. You might have gained 100 hands of info in your first session of rush vs them and realistically you have no idea how theyre really playing other than their vpip/pfr and what that implys. I dont think you can expect to have a comparable winrate (to normal tables) in a game that functions like rush.

If its agreed that winrates are smaller (you may all disagree!), then it follows that variance is also higher on variance/hand. The extra # of hands an hour compared to 4-6 tabling normal tables almost certainly makes the variance long term lower tho due to getting through 50k hand breakeven stretches a hell of alot quicker. This is also clearly considering the term 'variance' to mean 'how bad can I run for how many hands/days' and 'how bad could my sessions go', not about the actual whole standard deviation type variance from the mean.

This also all only considers the aspect of winrate affecting 'variance'. Obviously other things like if you choose to play a completely different style due to thinking its preferable in rush could fuck with variance even more in whatever direction.

I thinks its because some people are tilt monkeys, and since you can get way more hands in they tilt over larger samples and have huge downswings. The opposite could be true if someone is really focused and playing better.

you guys are forgetting the fact that you're playing way more hands per hour at 4 tables than your standard 4 tables of poker...

so the "variance" is just sped up by 3-4x thus making the "swings" bigger in shorter amount of time. Now try upping that to 6 or even 8 tables of rush.

obviously your edge is gonna be significantly smaller due to less available information on your opponents and that can increase variance a bit since you're pushing smaller edges more often.

imagine going through a 10k hand 10 buying downswing. while that isn't big at all you can easily play 10k hands in a day with rush poker so the "swings" feel bigger since you're just burning through the hands so quickly.

playing deeper decreases variance in rush poker actually

jus sayin

On May 26 2011 01:41 Rekrul wrote: playing deeper decreases variance in rush poker actually jus sayin

Technically it would increase your edge, but also increase short-term variance, but decrease long-term variance if I'm not mistaken.....? Just woke up, so don't jump all over me if I'm wrong guys :D

lower bb/100 = more variance. Rush games are tough... despite what Rekrul might say ;p

i never said rush games are easy, they are extremely tough, u'd have to be lucky to get over 2 bb / 100 at 2/4

HEM OR PT BBs?

On May 26 2011 01:41 Rekrul wrote: playing deeper decreases variance in rush poker actually jus sayin

i doubt that very much even if people play tighter and shit deep, the simple mathematical change of stddev on deep poker is considerable.

On May 26 2011 01:48 Fujikura wrote: Show nested quote + On May 26 2011 01:41 Rekrul wrote: playing deeper decreases variance in rush poker actually jus sayin Technically it would increase your edge, but also increase short-term variance, but decrease long-term variance if I'm not mistaken.....? Just woke up, so don't jump all over me if I'm wrong guys :D

what i think
except i havent slept for like 30 hrs so

Playing deep without any reads makes me want to pull my hair out.

Playing poker without any reads makes me want to pull my hair out.

On May 26 2011 04:46 GiYoM wrote: lower bb/100 = more variance. Rush games are tough... despite what Rekrul might say ;p

High standard deviation is more variance but having a lower bb/100 doesn't increase your variance. If you have a high bb/100 over X amount of hands then a higher percentage of the time you'll be positive than with a lower bb/100 over the same X amount of hands with the same SD. Rush games may have a higher SD because of how differently you or the other players play. I would think if you're playing more hands though your SD could possibly be lower by metric of hourly even if it's higher when measured by hands.