Floofy's statistic program

So i programmed a weird program about horse racing

It actually explains really well how long term luck works. I always knew that in the long run it "evens out", but i never had the proof of it, and never really understood why. this program explains it so well, i had to talk about it! if anyone wants it i could share it

I will explain how it works

The program first ask you how many seconds the race will last
Then, it ask you how many horses there will be in first team, and how many horse there will be in second team.
For each team of horses, you select a "min speed" and a "max speed".

Then for each seconds, the program selects a random number between min and max speed for each horse.

So for example, an horse's min speed could be 0, and his max speed could be 8, and every seconds it will randomly travel a distance between 0 and 8

Heres an interesting test i did

10 seconds race
70 horses running between -100 and 100
vs
1 horse running between -100 and 101

obviously, in this mode, the first team wins much more often. the little edge of the "expert" horse does not matter much

however, in the following test

1 000 000 seconds race
70 horses running between -100 and 100
vs
1 horse running between -100 and 101

In this mode, its not even close. The "expert" horse always wins by A LOT. The expert horse almost never goes below 350 000, and none of the 70 "fish" horses ever does better than 150000.

its a mindfuck to think it would be "possible" for a fish horse to do a 100 million distance, but it never does over 150K.

Even if i do 40 "expert horse" vs 40 "fish horse", the worst of the "expert" will basicelly always beat the best of the "fish" by a lot.

So anyways, after playing around with this program, i don't believe anymore in 1000000 hands downswings. I think if someone is down after that many hands, its certainly not because of luck

a wat

I thought this would have something to do with looks vs game.

On March 22 2010 00:03 edzwoo wrote: I thought this would have something to do with looks vs game.

hes banging so many chicks he simply needs program for that

i don't see any statistics, i don't see the program either. I want to know what happened to the looks thread

you should write your an phd on this

what did we learn here, Palmer?
Every time I see a new thread about long run EV, i immediately think of the end of Burn After Reading.

But umm yeah, it would be really great if poker was this simple. Even better if life was this simple. But variables such as tilt, play an important part in understanding long run EV.

central limit theorum

i've just reproved everything and anything number related

statistics such dangerous tool, because it seems so easy yet only small amount of people actually know how to use stats properly.

I didn't read but write a blog omg !!!

Since when is Floofy back on LP?

statistics show Floofy is an alpha stallion

On March 22 2010 03:58 byrnesam wrote: statistics show Floofy is an alpha stallion

ROFL

Floofy should make a book on his sexy time experiences, "Ernest guide to picking up chicks"