NL400 - Std Shove, yes?

Villain is a reg. He usually fires 2nd barrel against calls, hence my check on turn. On river, flush is one of the main components of his range. But we can never CF here, so might as well shove for value against the stuff we do beat. Or do people CF here?

Submitted by : phexac

PokerStars Game #41321142566: Holdem No Limit ($2/$4 USD) - 2010/03/17 21:35:46 ET
Table Patientia II 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: d3fault ($1078.30 in chips)
Seat 2: Jinn_Rooh ($481 in chips)
Seat 3: Chris_55555 ($437.60 in chips)
Seat 4: King Valkiri ($264 in chips)
Seat 5: Hero ($400 in chips)
Seat 6: slvrsluger ($412 in chips)
King Valkiri: posts small blind $2
Hero: posts big blind $4

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
slvrsluger: folds
d3fault: folds
Jinn_Rooh: folds
Chris_55555: raises $6 to $10
King Valkiri: folds
Hero: calls $6

Flop (Pot : $22.00)

   
Hero: checks
Chris_55555: bets $16
Hero: calls $16

Turn (Pot : $54.00)

   
Hero: checks
Chris_55555: bets $42
Hero: raises $84 to $126
Chris_55555: calls $84

River (Pot : $306.00)

   
Hero:

Nah ship it. I think his range actually favors towards aces instead of flushes. Sure he has a flush sometimes but wutever.

clear value jam. the 6 makes it less likely there's a set out there so in villain's spot he's more likely to call a strong Ax here, and maybe as weak as like AT or even Ax.

i would assume villain would usually jam over with bigger draws and fold weaker draws anyway. unless he's super bad.

chris is def never calling with worse here

On March 17 2010 22:12 TimDawg wrote: chris is def never calling with worse here

I was kinda thinking the same thing in the back of my mind that tells me I'm about to get coolered...but Checking here is just so bad, no? I mean, realistically, can we make ourselves click fold if he bets after we check?

Meh I duno, it's not the best spot to be in because that spade not only completes a possible FD for him, but it also is a scare card if he has an ace. I shoved because I was like well, even if he really has a flush here, it's not too terrible to lose the rest of my stack seeing as we charged him $126 for the river card in a $54 pot, thanks to the successful CR, and I'd rather shoot myself than CF here...

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shouldn´t we ch/raise a little more to charge hands like gutshot+flushdraw? this is probably weak, but i would ch/fold here, since i don´t think he is turning a big ace into a bluff that many times.

On March 18 2010 06:12 the cleaner wrote: shouldn´t we ch/raise a little more to charge hands like gutshot+flushdraw? this is probably weak, but i would ch/fold here, since i don´t think he is turning a big ace into a bluff that many times.

How much would you CR? I mean he bet 80% pot and I made it 3x. Isn't a bigger CR getting a bit obnoxious? Though I supposed I could make it 140 or so since we are OOP. Wouldn't it be perceived as a lot stronger?

Raising more is not necessary and probably bad because it leaves a shitty pot:stack ratio. We aren't just trying to charge against draws but we're also trying to get value out of worse made hands. I notice this kind of reasoning a lot from low to mid stakes players on the forums (not trying to demean/generalize in any way) that you should raise more to protect a hand against draws but I feel like they do not take the entire picture into account.

I think any raise size that leaves a nice 3/4pot river shove or something is good.

On March 18 2010 06:06 sChOuA wrote: Show nested quote + On March 17 2010 22:12 TimDawg wrote: chris is def never calling with worse here #2

I haven't played with this guy, but really a winning 400nl reg never calls with worse here? We don't rep much imo.

this is more of a bluff with full house blockers then a value shove mostly due to the fact that hes prob never peeling AQ/AK (even though AK=A2, people tend to peel AK more then A2 (also I dont think chris 2 barrel A2 here, he may even check the flop hes fariley weak tight)) on the turn unless you have a special dynamic (which 95%+ of players dont in this spot) where your bluffraising him on later streets a ton (which again almost no one in MSNL does)

On that note your equity against his calling range should be -EV ** on this particular river **unless he is peeling AQ/AK on the turn (which hes not). On a brick river he can obv pay you off w/ all worse 2pairs which there are a ton of'.


Hand 0: 73.333% 66.67% 06.67% 20 2.00 { AJs, A8s, A6s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Js7s, Ts9s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 9s5s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 5s4s, AJo, A8o, A6o }
Hand 1: 26.667% 20.00% 06.67% 6 2.00 { AhJc }



hmm even if we add 100% of AK/AQ combos to his calling range on the turn (which is optimistic)

Hand 0: 47.826% 43.48% 04.35% 20 2.00 { AJs+, A8s, A6s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Js7s, Ts9s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 9s5s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 5s4s, AJo+, A8o, A6o }
Hand 1: 52.174% 47.83% 04.35% 22 2.00 { AhJc }

its still a -ev shove


On that note you need a batshit aggresive image to make this correct, which again no one does

on that note, if I was playing and had only 15 sec or so to think about the hand I would jam and expect to have something like 60% equity against his calling range, but upon further review I dont beleive its the best play

So tom, are you saying then that basically CC/CR with air or semi-bluff is super +EV versus him this dude because he will fold all his one-pair hands, including AK? I mean if that is the case, shit I should start bluffing all the time.

However I have noticed recently that people have been really suspicious of Call Flop/Raise Turn lines in position or out. Moreover, many seem to believe that raise on turn when a new FD appears is a sign that you have a pair with that FD. Haven't seen this particular villain in that spot, but generally it seems call/raise line makes a ton of people spazz out and not believe you.

Anyway, so are you saying that CC/CR with air is gona pick up a ton of pots because people like this dude will not call without a monster?

actually tom in the example that you add the AK/AQ combos and have about 50% vs his calling range shove is easily +ev oop

hero shoves 248 into 306 with 52% equity vs villain calling range.

so vs 48/100 times hero loses 248 (shove called by better) = 11904

and 52/100 times hero wins 248(villain calls shove with worse) + 306 pot = 28808

28808-11904 = 16904 / 100 = 169

so shoving here should net $169 if you have 52% equity.


so to break even on shoving the river you need only 29%

If your ip you always need 50% because you can just check behind and win the pot but out of position the situation is different

and even if a shove is slightly +ev oop other options are often better like c/c but in this example c/c seems pretty awful since he gonna check back the hands he would otherwise call and muck

that was based on the false fantasy assumption that hes calling with those hands 100% of the time, which is never the case, im not a huge fan of very high varience breakeven poker, when i calculate 52% against a SUPER optimistic range, I define that as -ev, since its not real world applicable

Im gonna assume that AJ is towards the bottom of your c/r range on the turn and that you arent very balanced with your turn c/r range....Id also assume that when you c/r villian is probably going to put you on exactly the type of hand you have.

Id even go as far as saying AK/AQ are rarely in his range on the river and that I would definitely not jam

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On March 30 2010 06:47 Rapoza wrote: Why you guys assume he is stacking off AK/AQ?

do you know how to read