[100nl]Big draw on flop vs 2 opponents in 3b pot

Submitted by : scriber

***** Hand History for Game 3205583033 ***** (Prima)
$100.00 USD NL Texas Holdem - Saturday, March 13, 06:48:55 ET 2010
Table Loudon Hill (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ( $293.36 USD )
Seat 2: amroth64 ( $191.60 USD )
Seat 3: MikeMcDermott ( $103.00 USD )
Seat 4: thak1ng ( $112.20 USD )
Seat 5: gamblerrrrr ( $107.88 USD )
Seat 6: pienio666 ( $141.71 USD )
Hero posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
amroth64 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].

Holecards
   
MikeMcDermott folds
thak1ng folds
gamblerrrrr raises [$3.00 USD]
pienio666 calls [$3.00 USD]
Hero raises [$13.50 USD]
amroth64 folds
gamblerrrrr calls [$11.00 USD]
pienio666 calls [$11.00 USD]

Flop (Pot : $42.50)

   
Hero bets [$26.00 USD]
gamblerrrrr raises [$56.00 USD]
pienio666 raises [$127.71 USD]
Hero raises [$252.86 USD]

fold if his range is only 33/9T and 99
wtf

You win this, you're done poker grinding for the day .

fold if his range is only 33/9T and 99 wtf

115:270 and we are 33-66 vs {99,33,T9} so it's rather close but a shove (this is assuming gamblerrr folds every single time, occasionally he will have a strong hand or a hand that has your outs which makes it closer than appears. On the other hand knowing nothing about him he might call with cra-p making a shove even better, but most commonly not i think).

you guys really need to learn to use pokerstove, this is a math problem nothing at all to discuss here

Can someone explain to me the math behind this?

I'm thinking I have at worst 6 outs in the deck--13 spades minus the two in my hand, the two on the board, and to be conservative two in one of the other two's hands and the ten, because that's worst case scenario a boat--so my odds are about 1/7 twice. I would hit a nut flush 2/7 times I shoved here and I'm basically hoping he folds a set or two pair?

Also what happened in the hand?

post this hand at low stakes poker, the guys there know how to use pokerstove just because a hand is 100NL dosnt mean it belongs at middle stakes

i NEVER realized how boss talentedtom is

On March 14 2010 13:12 CrownRoyal wrote: i NEVER realized how boss talentedtom is

And you'll probably never realize why he needs to.

[x] 3 bet
[x] 3 way
[ ] big draw

Do the maths now

ok lets do the math. If gambler folds and pienio has a set, you have 27% equity which gives you 3:1 odds. You have 60$ behind. There is 124 in the pot + 80$ put into by pieno. Thats 200:60. A little bit more than 3:1 so its definitly a EV+ shove. Lets look at this 200bb deep. Now we have to put an extra 160$ in the pot, so the odds are 160:300, which is only about 2:1. So 200bb its kind of close. But 200bb deep you also have to consider, that both villains are likely to have T9s TT/99 which not only gives you better odds when 3way, but also there is cardremoval, which even if one of them is showing up wth a fd sometimes, swings equity some in your favor.

lol @ gamblerrrr folding in this spot

On March 14 2010 19:19 ytricky wrote: ok lets do the math. If gambler folds and pienio has a set, you have 27% equity which gives you 3:1 odds. You have 60$ behind. There is 124 in the pot + 80$ put into by pieno. Thats 200:60. A little bit more than 3:1 so its definitly a EV+ shove. Lets look at this 200bb deep. Now we have to put an extra 160$ in the pot, so the odds are 160:300, which is only about 2:1. So 200bb its kind of close. But 200bb deep you also have to consider, that both villains are likely to have T9s TT/99 which not only gives you better odds when 3way, but also there is cardremoval, which even if one of them is showing up wth a fd sometimes, swings equity some in your favor.

when we have 290 and someone else has 140 that dosnt mean we are 200bb deep

On March 15 2010 01:07 TalentedTom wrote: Show nested quote + On March 14 2010 19:19 ytricky wrote: ok lets do the math. If gambler folds and pienio has a set, you have 27% equity which gives you 3:1 odds. You have 60$ behind. There is 124 in the pot + 80$ put into by pieno. Thats 200:60. A little bit more than 3:1 so its definitly a EV+ shove. Lets look at this 200bb deep. Now we have to put an extra 160$ in the pot, so the odds are 160:300, which is only about 2:1. So 200bb its kind of close. But 200bb deep you also have to consider, that both villains are likely to have T9s TT/99 which not only gives you better odds when 3way, but also there is cardremoval, which even if one of them is showing up wth a fd sometimes, swings equity some in your favor. when we have 290 and someone else has 140 that dosnt mean we are 200bb deep

I didnt look at the stacksizes, just assumed we were 100bb deep so i did the math for that. I did the math for 200bb since the op asked, for how it would be for that stack size.

For the actual stacksizes, we would get 100: 240, as pot odds for a shove. So if our opponent only has sets in his range, then the shove is slightly EV-. If he has TT/99/T9s, we have 2.3:1 odds, so it would be fine again.

You forgot what we put into the pot already.

its 102.25:287.5

you need 26% equity

Board: 3s Th 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.254% 28.25% 00.00% 21431 0.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 46.494% 46.49% 00.00% 35267 0.00 { TT-99, 33 }
Hand 2: 25.252% 25.25% 00.00% 19154 0.00 { TT-99, 33, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 8s7s }

How is this even close? There is a million dollars in the pot and u have a nut draw with bd equity. U dominate other draws and have odds to call it off against the worst ranges thhey can have.

28.4% Hero - AsJs
29.2% Gambler- QQ-99,33,KsQs,QsTs,T9s,8s7s
42.4% Pienio - 99,33,KsQs,Ts9s,8s7s

Gambler is not folding after his raise, so the pot is 357$ , we have to call 101$ .So we are getting 3.5:1 .
We call 101$ to win 357$ , 28.4% of the time =10138
We call 101$ to loose 101$ 71.2% of the time = 7191
So this shove is ev+, please correct me if I am wrong ?