AA draw heavy flop

Villain is 18/6
Submitted by : rozyboy

PokerStars Game #41025519636: Holdem No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2010/03/12 3:09:26 EET [2010/03/11 20:09:26 ET]
Table Fiducia VII 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ($54 in chips)
Seat 2: cro0sh6999 ($52 in chips)
Seat 3: DrGreve ($51.50 in chips)
Seat 4: THDGSBLX ($67.45 in chips)
Seat 5: masakari77 ($61.50 in chips)
Seat 6: chamel71 ($49.25 in chips)
THDGSBLX: posts small blind $0.25
masakari77: posts big blind $0.50

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
chamel71: raises $1 to $1.50
Hero: raises $3 to $4.50
cro0sh6999: folds
DrGreve: folds
THDGSBLX: folds
masakari77: folds
chamel71: calls $3

Flop (Pot : $9.75)

   
chamel71: checks
Hero: bets $8
chamel71: raises $36.75 to $44.75 and is all-in

would be nice to have the ace of diamonds :D.... depends on villain/dynamic but IMO -> vomit + call

3bet bigger.. ya +1 on vomit + call

call and dodge diamonds?

call and put on your ninja suit

You need about 38% equity to call. If he's nitty enough to call preflop with QQ and AKo, you have 35% equity against a reasonable value and semi-bluff range. It's about 38% if you throw in TTd and 88d. 36.4% with AKdd in there. Looks like a fairly neutral EV call or fold if you throw a few percent in for random bluffs with smaller PPs.

Board: Jd 9d 7d
Hand 0: 34.966% { AcAs }
Hand 1: 65.034% { QcQd, QdQh, QdQs, JJ, 99, 77, AdQd, KdQd, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, AcQd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AsQd }

you don't need 38% equity.
you need a ninja suit.

how big is the sample size? if it's over a decent size, say several hundred hands, i'm bet/folding flop. if not, i prob check back flop a lot and proceed cautiously cuz this flop sucks a big wet one.

also, +1000 on 3betting bigger cuz i wouldn't expect him to fold any pair or decent broadways that he raised utg.

I usually 3 bet more but I thought he would fold too much there, knda wanted to keep him in...
collegesucks, by checking aren't u giving too many cards to any XdXx hands to outdraw u?

"If he has a pair and a gutshot, an OESD or just a flush draw, I'm not getting odds" is what I'm thinking. Can someone offer their train of thought on why they would even consider calling here?

I think the 3 bet before the flop has something to do with it, but I'm still not sure.

your 3bet is so small that I think u deserve to lose imo

Last time I did this though, villain showed up with a made flush. Not that this spot comes up much too often for me...