25NL KK - fold when....or..??

Villain strange 31/12/38% AF - played a weird game - had c/r turn a couple of times, has 72% cbet but double barrels a lot - 53%, raises cbets 10%, folds to 53% cbets but not seen him take this line that just shouts strength on a board that hits his btn calling range pretty hard I would think. I can't fold the flop and knowing he double barrels as PFR means the turn is a tough fold too (as he is now the aggressor)....

Can't remember exactly on this table but I play about 26/22 generally (we have some history but nothing quite like this spot) - in this actual session (6 tables) I ran 29/24 - 17/16 from MP, 76% cbet overall.

I am not sure how bluffy this guy is (he certainly is bluffy) but I don't give many 25nl's credit for being able to bluff 3 streets for stacks and I haven't seen him do that before (no showdown evidence anyway). Maybe he did just that but it seems to me more often I am going to see TJ or sets? Flop c/raises are so often nuts or air but it is rare to see the bluff continue even on the turn let alone the river. I felt this particular guy could be bluffing the turn a fair amount but the river shove is pretty strong - call, c/r, bet, shove.

Looking for value I will rarely get 3 streets unless he has exactly QQ, which considering he only 3bets 1.4% is possible. 3betting this flop seems like I will be way ahead/way behind - fold out worse get called/shoved on by everything that has me pretty crushed.

+ Show Spoiler +

I think my line is the best one to take but I'm not certain....I know get KK in posn next time

ez turn fold

I like it

if you think villain is a monkey bluffer your line is perfect
you are just hoping to see AJ or QQ here
ppl dont take that strong lines as bluffs often enough to make that call ever profitable
I dont think this guy is ever bluffing here, if he is, I would just let him take it and wait for a better spot...


take a note!

tutz_x - if I am folding the top of my range here on the turn I am asking to be exploited. I know this is 25NL and I shouldn't be too worried about that but this guy is a reg (strange reg but a reg). Meh - maybe you're right - it's just folding the turn just seems so weak Vs a guy who must be bluffy given stats. I wish I'd seen him do something like this before.....

I think you are overthinking how capable regs are to exploit you, specially this one thats obviously so bad... its not like this spot is gonna come up very often and if it does at least next time you have something to base your decision on. sometimes you have to make tight nitty folds, it may be painful but it has to be done

True. And I agree - I just hate folding

why call turn when you are going to fold river.


i hate this.

dont call turn if ur folding river...

man if he only 3bets 1.4% over a decent sample he could even be shoving worse.

if he can be sets 10j qq qk only you should be calling river

what 3b?

On February 04 2010 20:59 iverson2k2k wrote: dont call turn if ur folding river...

i read the hh wrong

this

Ehmm.. I don't know about you guys, but this is a call for me.

Turn and river does not visibly change anything. So you would have to believe that you were already beat from flop if you were to fold this.
If that's true, we are looking at possible set and two pair here. But why would a set raise this when there's not even a flush draw.
Because he's scared of straight draw? Really? Do people play it that fast?
I guess two pair raising on this flop makes more sense, but people love to slow play and again, it really is not a drawy flop.
I think I would be give him more credit if the villain smooth calls then raises the turn.

My guess is that villain has QQ, AJ, if crazy enough, KJ. But most of all, I think the villain could definitely have a missed straight draw here.

edit: actually, not only would this be a call for me, I probably would even shove this to make it look like I missed a draw (in case he has AJ or QQ)