Estro vs SKT1, Khan vs CJ

Tonight's Proleague games, XLBet's odds expressed in various formats (decimal,american,fractional,implied probability)

Estro 2.55, +155, 31/20, 39.22%
SKT1 1.45, -222, 9/20, 68.97%

Samsung Khan 1.45, -222, 9/20, 68.97%
CJ Entus 2.55, +155, 31/20, 39.22%

Hyvaa 2.90, +190, 19/10, 34.48%
Fantasy 1.36, -278, 9/25, 73.53

Great 1.57, -175, 57/100, 63.69%
Hydra 2.25, +125, 5/4, 44.44%

wow disgsuting margins indeed, i wonder how much action they get

and for those of you that want to bet, here are what XLBet's odds look like if you eliminated the vig (rake)

Estro +176
SKT1 -176

Samsung Khan -176
CJ Entus +176

im so confused, i don't understand these numbers

what a newb degenerate amirite

i dont think CJ entus is that big a dog o.O, but i don't really understand the numbers either.

On February 01 2010 16:46 Ket wrote: wow disgsuting margins indeed, i wonder how much action they get

probably very little which justifies higher vig to a certain degree, but at these levels, its a total ripoff. direct betting here will probably eliminate a huge portion of their market for starcraft betting.

On February 01 2010 16:50 kaisr wrote: i dont think CJ entus is that big a dog o.O, but i don't really understand the numbers either.

I totally agree, I'm not sure who is handicapping for them, but no way CJ is that big of a dog. then again, with those spreads, they have quite some room for error.

http://0vigcalc.150m.com/calc.htm to calculate vig free lines. From what i understand books tend to vig the favorite slightly more than underdogs due to public's likelihood of picking favorites.


So i.e instead of Khan/Entus being at 188.5 the link shows that it should be set at 176.

(Link is used as the official link on 2+2 for vig free lines, ten's of thousands are wagered each day using it)

let's take a $100 bet.

for decimal, multiply that number and that is what you get back including your initial bet. Estro 2.55 means that if you bet $100, you get $255 back which includes your initial bet so you are booking $155 profit. For American +155, that means you get $155 profit for every $100 that you bet. As you can see, they are exactly the same thing, just two different ways to say it.

For american odds, -222 means that you need to bet $222 to win $100. As you can see, the decimal method is superior since if you wanted to bet $100 on SKT and you see the decimal 1.45, you can calculate right away that your profit would be $45 on a $100 bet while -222 requires quite a bit of effort to calculate the payout on a lot of bets.

On February 01 2010 16:55 Raidan wrote: http://0vigcalc.150m.com/calc.htm to calculate vig free lines. From what i understand books tend to vig the favorite slightly more than underdogs due to public's likelihood of picking favorites. So i.e instead of Khan/Entus being at 188.5 the link shows that it should be set at 176. (Link is used as the official link on 2+2 for vig free lines, ten's of thousands are wagered each day using it)

yup, my bad, I just took the difference and that is wrong. just did it quickly in my head rather than go to the calculator. Usually for close bets, the difference is negligible but here it makes a substantial difference.

edit: fixed that earlier post

What time does this start? Khan PM me your new AIM. I might be up for degening if im around to watch.

They seriously have the same margin between Estro/SKT1 and CJ/Khan? There is no way Khan has the same amount of advantage over CJ that SKT1 has over Estro. In fact, I'm pretty confident that CJ is going to beat Khan.

Raidan,

I just want to point out that the vig free line calculator while generally accurate is still theoretical. The true vig free line would be where the line would be in a perfectly efficient open market with no vig.

For example, the lines on the lakers vs grizz and blazers vs bobcats tonight are both -125 / +105. The vig free calculator will convert that to -114 / +114 as the vig free line.

The closest thing to an efficient open market would be matchbook and the spreads for both games are extremely tight. They have the lakers vs grizz at -111 / + 108 and the blazers vs bobcats at -119 / +120. So when compared to the generally accepted formula, the market has shifted in favor of the underdog in one match, while they went for the favorite in the other.

lol i looked at this website a little over a year ago and it took me sooo long to figure out their decimal betting system lol, its not used very much but its pretty sweet.

We use decimal here and I have always found the line betting so confusing. Tenbagger do you know if there is a reason why the US prefers this method? It has always had me wondering if it is a superior system for wagering.

pretty sure every winner's league match aside from when ace is involved is exactly 50/50.

eSTRO doesn't have a 40% chance. I'd bet against them were I a gambling man.

wow tenbagger those posts were super awesome

so now that we have a vig free way of betting are you guys going to stop being nits and finally bet with me

On February 01 2010 16:48 TenBagger wrote: and for those of you that want to bet, here are what XLBet's odds look like if you eliminated the vig (rake) Estro 3.12, +212, 53/25, 32.03% SKT1 1.57, -176, 57/100, 63.74% Samsung Khan 1.57, -176, 57/100, 63.74% CJ Entus 3.12, +212, 53/25, 32.03%

so estro / SKT1 is +194/-194, and same for khan/cj?