600nl set on river

Villain is a huge nit at 18/15. Hero had been 3b'ing him fairly frequently and this is first time being 4b.

What might DCal's river shoving range be? Is AK even going to be in his range?

Submitted by : FeARFaCT

[Offline IM sent 21h and 52m ago] PokerStars Game #38216583514: Holdem No Limit ($3/$6 USD) - 2010/01/15 17:59:57 ET
Table Golson X 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: callcenter66 ($602.40 in chips)
Seat 2: frenchfish94 ($606 in chips)
Seat 3: DCal Zone ($1246.35 in chips)
Seat 4: into2ndWind ($1252.30 in chips)
Seat 5: tilt3dd0NK ($718 in chips)
tilt3dd0NK: posts small blind $3
callcenter66: posts big blind $6

Holecards
Dealt to into2ndWind
frenchfish94: folds
DCal Zone: raises $6 to $12
into2ndWind: raises $42 to $54
tilt3dd0NK: folds
callcenter66: folds
DCal Zone: raises $100 to $154
into2ndWind: calls $100

Flop (Pot : $317.00)

   
DCal Zone: bets $210
into2ndWind: calls $210

Turn (Pot : $737.00)

   
DCal Zone: bets $225
into2ndWind: calls $225

River (Pot : $1,187.00)

   
DCal Zone: bets $657.35 and is all-in

Everything seems to point that his shoving range is exactly KK+ lol.

Aside from wondering if he'd valueshove AK on the river, which I don't think he would, I'd even question if he'd 4bet pre with AK 200bbs deep being a 18/15 nit.

Maybe its just me but bottom set looks pretty garbage here.

Ye but it is still 5 handed, and we have been 3betting him a lot.

Even if he does 4bet and shove river only with AKs and not AKo its still a snapcall :/


Is he really that nitty not to 3bet AK OOP at least 50% of the time and take this line?

I'd fold preflop, D-cal isnt messing around much, hes just a 20 tabling nit - as played you have to call you are a slight favorate over AK/KK-AA

200bb deep? looks like a fold, dont think dcal messes around here

Hes shown nothing but strength. I'd have to put him on the higher set. I can see the AK argument depending on your stats, but folding seems like the better play.

I'd personally still call though, but I'm bad.

actually tom I don't think we can include AK in his 4betting range 200bb deep

So I'd prob fold

On January 16 2010 20:21 Fayth wrote: actually tom I don't think we can include AK in his 4betting range 200bb deep So I'd prob fold

I would fold preflop cause i also dont think hes 4-betting AK, but If i flat preflop im not folding this flop

On January 16 2010 20:43 TalentedTom wrote: Show nested quote + On January 16 2010 20:21 Fayth wrote: actually tom I don't think we can include AK in his 4betting range 200bb deep So I'd prob fold I would fold preflop cause i also dont think hes 4-betting AK, but If i flat preflop im not folding this flop

doesn't make sense, cuz ur hand has the exact same value pre flop as on flop in this situation, I know he shudn't have called pre flop, but now he can redeem himself by folding haha

Of course he should call preflop he's getting >10:1 implied on a guy who obviously has aces or kings; profitable just to hit a queen. but yeah fold after the flop or if you have to stay in til the turn bc you can't fold a set to one bet on the flop, fold on the turn.

On January 17 2010 11:53 thewh00sel wrote: Of course he should call preflop he's getting >10:1 implied on a guy who obviously has aces or kings; profitable just to hit a queen. but yeah fold after the flop or if you have to stay in til the turn bc you can't fold a set to one bet on the flop, fold on the turn.

calling 10;1 preflop for ONLY setmining isnt profitable.. a lot of terrible 400NL regs play like this, none of them make any money
its very high varience at best break-even poker

you may not know this but the odds of flopping a set are 7.5:1, and 10% of the time you make a set (against an overpair) you are gonna lose by the river, so lets say you are 1k deep and you call 10% of your stack preflop to hit a set, your EV by the river (asuming the money goes in) is gonna be 90% of $2000 for an EV of 1800, so you are risking 1000 for a profit of 800, but preflop you NEED 7.5:1 to BREAKEVEN so your profit under 100% ideal conditions is $50

thats not even taking into account stuff like KJQ flops (when villian has AA) or JTQ, KKQ or something like QJ9 with 3 spades. Under 100% ideal conditions its barley breakeven , you need more like 15:1 to profitably setmine against a AA/KK range, against ANY kind of balanced range you need closer to 20:1 (which is almost the same like calling a standard open preflop)

Im also close to 90%+ sure that 90%+ of regs dont know the mathematics of poker or have never taken ANY time at all to calculate / experiment / pokerstove them

On January 17 2010 13:54 TalentedTom wrote: you may not know this but the odds of flopping a set are 7.5:1, and 10% of the time you make a set (against an overpair) you are gonna lose by the river, so lets say you are 1k deep and you call 10% of your stack preflop to hit a set, your EV by the river (asuming the money goes in) is gonna be 90% of $2000 for an EV of 1800, so you are risking 1000 for a profit of 800, but preflop you NEED 7.5:1 to BREAKEVEN so your profit under 100% ideal conditions is $50 thats not even taking into account stuff like KJQ flops (when villian has AA) or JTQ, KKQ or something like QJ9 with 3 spades. Under 100% ideal conditions its barley breakeven , you need more like 15:1 to profitably setmine against a AA/KK range, against ANY kind of balanced range you need closer to 20:1 (which is almost the same like calling a standard open preflop) Im also close to 90%+ sure that 90%+ of regs dont know the mathematics of poker or have never taken ANY time at all to calculate / experiment / pokerstove them

Or when you flop underset (like it looks like in this hand). When you setmine against an overpair that is not folding until river, you will get oversetted 16% of the time you make a set. So yeah set-mining at 10:1 odds is just a horrible losing play.

On January 16 2010 16:12 edzwoo wrote: Everything seems to point that his shoving range is exactly KK+ lol. Aside from wondering if he'd valueshove AK on the river, which I don't think he would, I'd even question if he'd 4bet pre with AK 200bbs deep being a 18/15 nit. Maybe its just me but bottom set looks pretty garbage here.

I actually think he could value bet shove AK since maybe he's putting you on a range that does 2 blanks didnt improve nothing so most likely otherwise he dosent think you got J10 since you didnt raise turn.

agreed with fayth ak isnt in dcal's 4betting range this deep
his range may only be AA here cuz he's just a nit and im not even sure he 4bets KK 200bb deep.