hand 1
i put together an estimated range where villain would commit more chips on the turn.
Board: Qc Ks Js
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.591% 47.85% 03.74% 42160 3296.50 { KhJd }
Hand 1: 48.409% 44.67% 03.74% 39357 3296.50 { TT, AcJc, AhJh, ATs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KcQc, KdQd, KcJc, KcTc, KdTd, Kc9c, Kd9d, QhJh, QsJs, QdTd, QhTh, QsTs, JcTc, JhTh, T9s, 9s8s, AcJh, AdJc, AdJh, AhJc, AsJc, AsJh, ATo, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KcJh, KdJc, KdJh, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, QcJd, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QhJc, QhJs, QsJc, QsJh, QdT
in many scenarios he can call you pre flop and be a bit stubborn and float a flop. assuming he has a legit hand here, where he will be committing more chips and you don't rake the pot with a turn bet, you are essentially a flip to win albeit a tiny favorite. there are so many chips in the middle, you have a very strong hand and if you are up against the strongest hands he could realistically have you are still a 51.5/48.5 the pot is so big and your bet sizing and stacks create the scenario where you cannot really bet fold. you cannot put a 100k bet in and fold to a minraise getting 1 to 4.6 pot odds.
**hand 2
if you get called by 55+ ATo+ATs+KJs+KQo+, the top 9.7% of their range
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.794% 35.20% 00.60% 77750706 1314717.00 { Kh9h }
Hand 1: 64.206% 63.61% 00.60% 140507076 1314717.00 { AA, KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, QQ-TT, 9c9d, 9c9s, 9d9s, 88-55, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AQs-ATs, KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KcJc, KdJd, KsJs, AcKd, AcKs, AdKc, AdKs, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AQo-ATo, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh }
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if we assume you will get called a bit wider, 33+QJo+QTs+K9s+KTo+A8s+A9o+ the top 15.5% of their range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.435% 36.84% 01.60% 126783371 5500708.00 { Kh9h }
Hand 1: 61.565% 59.97% 01.60% 206388317 5500708.00 { AA, KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, QQ-TT, 9c9d, 9c9s, 9d9s, 88-33, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AQs-A8s, KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KcJc, KdJd, KsJs, KcTc, KdTd, KsTs, Kc9c, Kd9d, Ks9s, QTs+, AcK,d, AcKs, AdKc, AdKs, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AQo-A9o, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, KsTc, KsTd, KsTh, QJo }
when you shove i'd expect to get called about 44% of the time if the table is conservative and is calling the top 9.7% and about 70% if the table is looser and calls with the top 15.5%. in either event, you will take down the pot uncontested a fair amount of the time and when you do get called you still have a decent amount of equity in the hand.
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(two pair, Queens and Tens)
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