NL100 5 way sqz pot

ontherun is 17/11 reg.
mai0007 is 51/10 fish.
aquamann is some fish.
johnny brunson is 12/7 reg.

kind of a bizarre spot. i would think its weird that either ontherun or johnny brunson would slowplay AA/KK here, but its possible, i dont know really.

what do you guys think? do you cbet/get it in since they probably dont have AA/KK as played?

Submitted by : joLin

Full Tilt Poker Game #17584889436: Table Ali Baba - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:16:23 ET - 2010/01/14
Seat 1: mai0007 ($76.70)
Seat 2: TossSalad ($100)
Seat 3: Hero ($100)
Seat 4: TKACHENKOSA ($19.65)
Seat 5: Aquamann2 ($60.55)
Seat 6: sch78 ($51.40)
Seat 7: Johnny Brunson ($100)
Seat 8: ontherun ($100)
Seat 9: peter0624 ($43.25)
sch78 posts the small blind of $0.50
Johnny Brunson posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #5

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
ontherun raises to $3
peter0624 folds
mai0007 calls $3
TossSalad calls $3
Hero raises to $12
TKACHENKOSA folds
Aquamann2 calls $12
sch78 folds
Johnny Brunson has 15 seconds left to act
Johnny Brunson calls $11
ontherun calls $9
mai0007 calls $9
TossSalad folds
TossSalad adds $3

Flop (Pot : $63.50)

   
Johnny Brunson checks
ontherun checks
mai0007 checks
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero has requested TIME
Hero checks
Aquamann2 bets $20
Johnny Brunson has 15 seconds left to act
Johnny Brunson has timed out
Johnny Brunson folds
Johnny Brunson is sitting out
ontherun raises to $88, and is all in
mai0007 folds
Hero folds
Hero adds $12
Aquamann2 folds
Uncalled bet of $68 returned to ontherun
ontherun mucks
ontherun wins the pot ($100.50)
Johnny Brunson has returned

Summary
Total pot $103.50 | Rake $3
Board:
Seat 1: mai0007 folded on the Flop
Seat 2: TossSalad folded before the Flop
Seat 3: Hero folded on the Flop
Seat 4: TKACHENKOSA didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Aquamann2 (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: sch78 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: Johnny Brunson (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: ontherun collected ($100.50), mucked
Seat 9: peter0624 didn't bet (folded)

I don't play FR but this seems like an easy call. I don't see 5x in the opening range of OR in a FR game and he'll call with any other PP because of your weak ass SQ PF... He can easily shove 66-JJ here, especially against a 50/10 fish. KK+ he shits on your weak ass SQ for sure, especially with all the dead money in the pot. As played, call. Next time raise more PF. More like $18~.

whats ontherun's utg raise range?

hes raised 10% out of 93 hands in early position. im not sure if early position in HEM means utg for fr or if its utg and utg+1 and utg+2 or w/e.

this dosen't look aa or kk, but he is getting about enough odds to set farm here.
I think this case u have to look at ptr if he's a winner or a retarded spewer I don't see what your calling that beat shoving range here

one thing that makes me kinda doubt this fold is that he may have a hand like JJ/TT and decided to go with it vs the fish bcuz it looks like ive given up, and theres no other reg left in the pot. plus ive realized he shouldnt really have AA/KK.

i was also intending to get it in vs the fish if everyone else folded.

why is your squeeze so small or am i retarded?
i dont play fullring but this flop is DZINN, folding is only thing you can do wrong..

yea my squeeze was a bit small, mistake.

why are you folding the nuts here?

snap call he has 66-JJ

bet the flop,

there is no slowplay here. this looks like a spade draw, or some pair in the range of 99-JJ, and the occasional setmining 22. Don't think that many calls here w/ 5xds hands.

raise to 18 pre
-.-
and LOOOOOOOOOOOL why are you fucking check folding a 552 flop with QQ in a 3 bet pot

ontherun play 17 11 and you put him on a 5?
gj

This is a weird spot and I haven't played FR in a while but I'm pretty sure there's got to be some small chance that ontherun can possibly show up here with 56s or A5s, and definitely 22. I would normally call here if it were just you, him, and the fish but being that this is a 3B pot 5-way with 2 cold callers, granted one of them is the fish, makes this sooooo iffy. His range is definitely skewed towards you being WB/SA. I don't know why people think villain can show up here with an overpair that hero beats that often given the amount of players seeing this flop and with a 12/7 reg who coldcalled the 3B OOP in the SB.

What sucks is that there's so much money already in the pot and you're probably crushing the fish's range. In the moment, I'd probably flip a coin to call or fold, but let's stove this.

Board: 2s 5s 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.058% 63.79% 00.27% 512061 2177.50 { KhKs, 55, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, 6d5d }
Hand 1: 25.286% 25.18% 00.10% 202158 826.50 { QcQd }
Hand 2: 10.656% 10.28% 00.37% 82540 3004.00 { 66+, AKs, AJs, Ad5d, KQs, AKo, AJo, KQo }

So Hand 0 is OnTheRun, Hand 1 is obviously you, and Hand 2 is the fish. You don't really give much info to work with other than their extremely general pf vpip/pfr's but I think this will give you a rough estimate of what you have to deal with give or take. If the fish folds, you have ~31.6% equity vs ontherun.

Your odds here: 63.50 (pot) + 20 (aqua's bet) + 88 (ontherun's all-in) = 171.5. If the fish calls then the total pot is 171.5 + 28.55 = 200.05. And you need to call $88. Scenario 1 is if fish calls then you're getting ~30.5% for your call so it's slightly -EV. Scenario 2 is if it's just you and ontherun all-in then you're getting ~33.9% so it's still slightly -EV. So if you had time to analyze this hand then you should fold.

Moral of this story is to bet the flop and get it in! Too much dead money out there and if it checks through you're giving away so much equity in a spot where there's a host of likely cards that are going to improve one of your opponent's hands. Johnny Brunswon might occasionally show up here with a higher overpair but it's unlikely and the same goes for ontherun but overall you beat both their ranges.

pretend the board is 555 with 2 5's of spades and that flush > boat
what would you do?
cant fold a flopped boat

On January 14 2010 13:28 Grass.nS) wrote: You don't really give much info to work with other than their extremely general pf vpip/pfr's but I think this will give you a rough estimate of what you have to deal with give or take.

yea i dont really have any relevant info other than that.

but yea ok thanks guys, i just didnt think this hand through enough when it happened.