Bluff this river with 2nd pair?

Submitted by : DustySwedeDude

***** Hand History for Game 2849062837 ***** (Prima)
$2000.00 USD NL Texas Holdem - Monday, September 21, 11:44:39 ET 2009
Table Bravery Of Being 2 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ( $2264.00 USD )
Seat 2: bajgora76 ( $370.00 USD )
Seat 3: dewinnaar ( $2428.00 USD )
Seat 4: y0 ( $2357.00 USD )
Seat 5: kiran666 ( $2179.59 USD )
Seat 6: Kalacenikov6 ( $2087.00 USD )
y0 posts small blind [$10.00 USD].
kiran666 posts big blind [$20.00 USD].

Holecards
   
Kalacenikov6 folds
Hero raises [$60.00 USD]
bajgora76 folds
dewinnaar calls [$60.00 USD]
y0 folds
kiran666 calls [$40.00 USD]

Flop (Pot : $190.00)

   
kiran666 checks
Hero bets [$160.00 USD]
dewinnaar raises [$340.00 USD]
kiran666 folds
Hero calls [$180.00 USD]

Turn (Pot : $870.00)

   
Hero checks
dewinnaar checks

River (Pot : $870.00)

   
Hero bets [$620.00 USD]

This would make sense if he folds the hands that would valuebet had you checked.

Tired as hell but since I won't call with this I don't think it matters at all if he bets or check stuff that beats me anyway.

Assuming I just c/f the river with everything and he bluffs with a decent frequency with this line I lose 620 vs hands he'll call me with (straights, probably sets, maybe 2ps) but I win money vs stuff he bluffs (say at least 1/3rd of his air), stuff that'd win at showdown that he folds (KT, AT, probably some J's). Also I feel that sets can be somewhat discounted since he checked the turn.

Sure I have some sd-value (say like 150 USD or something?) vs his checking range but I think the stuff he checks is mostly shit that beats me anyway and considering how I can have pretty much no hands at all that's not at least a pair I don't think he'll hero me to much.

On September 23 2009 20:45 DustySwedeDude wrote: Also I feel that sets can be somewhat discounted since he checked the turn.

Contradicting the Donald theorem?


A couple of thoughts:

On him bluffing: I think you're levelling yourself a bit, because on the one hand you're saying he will be bluffing a decent amount (you go as far as to say that if he checks he probably has you beat, so therefore you expect him to bluff with all of his air), but on the other hand you don't feel right check calling. I also would be a bit less concerned about him bluffing here, because I don't feel this is a particularly good spot for him to do so (you clearly have something, with his turn check he can mostly, if not exclusively only rep a 9)

If he can have AJ,KJ,QJ I like this play a lot more (I wasn't sure if this was the case when reading your post). If you suspect he can have Tx then even better.

Him folding 2pair, sets is... optimistic to say the least.

So I like your play, but purely based on your assumption that he can very likely have Jx, Tx, I don't agree with your other arguments (folding out 2pair+, being bluffed out if you check).

I dont like it since we are trying to get him off a really narrow range of hands, like QJ-AJ that checked back the turn, and if hes at all capable of rebluffing here were pretty screwed, not to mention he does have a fair bit of 9x in his range. Also I dont know how you play in these spots but id mostly check here with a straight to c/r and keep my range wide, if you do lead here with straights and AJ and stuff then I guess it cant be terrible to bluff.

All his semibluffing mid pair and gutshot type hands either made 2 pair or got there w/ the straight. If you think he'll fold 2 pair go for it, but the way ur describing him and ur image it doesnt sound like he will.

It sucks because if u check there's very little that checks behind that u have beat, so ur effectively giving up, but the alternatives are all worse.

yeah doesnt seem like he will fold a lot but maybe you could check/shove instead if he valuebets somewhat thinly?

I think turning our hand into a bluff occasionally is a cool idea, the problem is both of u have hands that can own this range. If he likes to vbet lite then c/r ai otherwise I think this bet is fine