NL200 call down - good?

Villain is an aggressive regular. I just feel that he does not have a 7 or a 9 often enough here to warrant a fold. I feel like he see flop checked though, figures I checked, so I have nothing, the other two dudes prolly also, unless they are slowplaying. After I call turn, he figures I often have A-hi and he can get me to fold that because I would be afraid of full house, but also pocket pairs. For my part, I think after the turn, 88 is same as AA here because all better pairs would have 3B Pre-Flop, except MAYBE TT, but even that he would often squeeze with since he is aggro. And I just can't fold AA on this board. He could be full of crap, he could have smaller pair, he could have busted draw that he was not afraid to bet on turn because he did not think a full house was likely, and sometimes he has a monster, but monsters don't come along too often, so bluff, busted draw bluff or smaller pair is more likely. Is my reasoning sound or is this too much thinking and I should remember that this is NL200 4-way pot, and simple explanation is always best, he has the goods and is value towning me?

Submitted by : phexac

PokerStars Game #29893575726: Holdem No Limit ($1/$2) - 2009/06/28 21:04:25 ET
Table Tamara V 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: krazymonkey3 ($243.30 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero ($229.80 in chips)
Seat 3: zoe100 ($83.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Fereye ($214.10 in chips)
Seat 5: Promokashka ($223.65 in chips)
Seat 6: RUrbach ($256 in chips)
RUrbach: posts small blind $1
krazymonkey3: posts big blind $2

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
Hero: raises $5 to $7
zoe100: folds
Fereye: calls $7
Promokashka: calls $7
RUrbach: calls $6
krazymonkey3: folds

Flop (Pot : $30.00)

   
RUrbach: checks
Hero: checks
Fereye: checks
Promokashka: checks

Turn (Pot : $30.00)

   
RUrbach: bets $16
Hero: calls $16
Fereye: folds
Promokashka: folds

River (Pot : $62.00)

   
RUrbach: bets $38
Hero: calls $38

On June 28 2009 23:11 phexac wrote: this is NL200 4-way pot, and simple explanation is always best, he has the goods and is value towning me?

im positive ur beat here 97% of the time

On June 28 2009 23:28 CrownRoyal wrote: im positive ur beat here 97% of the time

So would you fold AA here if we had decided to check the Flop with it instead of cbetting?

I sort of doubt RUrbach leads with a draw or small pair on the turn (the latter being equivalent to a random bluff which despite his aggressiveness is unlikely 4 way). Its true that he would 3bet most overpairs here, though flatting TT/JJ is not out of the question for him. I would say you are beat here too often for it to be profitable to make this call since he can flat here with a lot of 7x, 9x hands, and I would estimate his turn bluffing frequency as very low. AA is closer than 88 since TT/JJ can be in his range. Too lazy to do a proper calculation for this.

nvm. I forgot that he might lead Ax here, and fire river...could be a reasonable call down.

97% of the time, yes

i would pretty much never call river unless villain was real dumb

I like it for exactly the reasons you state. I'd call here every time unless he was one of those nits who simply never bluffs.

hes never aggressive enough to pull off dumb shit on this board

He is first to act 4way.

Must be a huge monkey to try this

On June 29 2009 10:16 LemOn[5thF] wrote: He is first to act 4way. Must be a huge monkey to try this

i think it's a mandatory bluff spot for him with his entire range.

preflop raiser checks and the other two guys check behind so they obviously never have anything (i'd bet T9 here always in their spot).