50NL - Small Flush on Paired Board / Fold?

Submitted by : Benzooor

PokerStars Game #29753591388: Holdem No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2009/06/24 21:04:59 PT [2009/06/25 0:04:59 ET]
Table Podarkes II 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: hell_goose ($54.10 in chips)
Seat 2: tonytw ($50 in chips)
Seat 3: AAchole666 ($170.55 in chips)
Seat 4: Zalabinsky ($50.75 in chips)
Seat 5: Benzooor ($156.75 in chips)
Seat 6: hobangman ($97 in chips)
hell_goose: posts small blind $0.25
tonytw: posts big blind $0.50

Holecards
Dealt to Benzooor
AAchole666: raises $1.50 to $2
Zalabinsky: calls $2
Benzooor: calls $2
hobangman: folds
hell_goose: folds
tonytw: folds

Flop (Pot : $6.75)

   
AAchole666: checks
Zalabinsky: bets $4
Benzooor: calls $4
AAchole666: folds

Turn (Pot : $14.75)

   
Zalabinsky: bets $11
Benzooor: calls $11

River (Pot : $36.75)

   
Zalabinsky: bets $26

He can and should be valuebetting any jack, AA, and maybe AK. He can 3-barrel QT sometimes. This is a pretty clear call. Raising never gets called by worse unless he's a station, and folding sucks because of what I just mentioned.

hm hes not the PFR though..changes things a bit doesnt it?

why would you fold after calling all 3 streets what did you want?

seems like a huge leak to call these down especially if you aren't going to jam over this river

I really think the decision is whether you should call/raise. I can't really see folding here because you are ahead of most of what he likely could have.

On June 25 2009 01:09 joLin wrote: hm hes not the PFR though..changes things a bit doesnt it?

didn't see this. Umm, I guess he has 44 or a higher flush a lot more. I still call, but it's closer.

On June 25 2009 01:10 SpeedyJack wrote: why would you fold after calling all 3 streets what did you want? seems like a huge leak to call these down especially if you aren't going to jam over this river

He calls the turn because he picks up an OESD too.

am i an idiot for thinking minriase and fold to shove?

^^ you can't, minraise puts him all in. Every time I have said call in this thread I mean raise, he's not folding AJ getting 10-1.

yah

wow
i kept seeing the stack of money above him 170.55 holy shit i swear i must have checked like 5 times oh well its fucking late

On June 25 2009 02:50 bongky wrote: yah

and this...

made me laff

On June 25 2009 01:10 SpeedyJack wrote: why would you fold after calling all 3 streets what did you want? seems like a huge leak to call these down especially if you aren't going to jam over this river

this

shove the river dude, i'm not even thinking about flatting the river here. if you don't think your FD is any good when it hits just fold flop

I call the turn because I have OESD to go with flush draw, would likely have folded unimproved as I just wasn't getting good enough odds without it. I think my flush draw IS good a large percentage of the time, which is why I continue to this point.

I appreciate the responses but I think it warrants more discussion. His line is very strong.

A big thing you're missing is that my hand is very apparent to the other player, and the board pairs. I am not nearly as afraid of a higher flush draw as I am a boat on this river.
He is so far a decent player, full-stacked and not doing anything stupid, running at fairly tight stats.

It is very unlikely he would lead out in a multi-way pot and barrel the turn with a bare jack. AA can be ruled out because I think this player would 3bet it nearly 100% of the time preflop. AK can somewhat be ruled out as well for this reason. It is also unlikely that he is doing this with air as there just seems to be no reason for it.

To those advocating shove, what am I beating exactly? Sometimes a 3barrel with QT? I really can't see him taking this line with a bare jack. With a bare king he will most likely be checking this river as it is a major scarecard for his hand, although a valuebet is possible with AK/KQ I guess.

The rest of his range for firing large on this river includes KJ, sets, and flushes -- ALL of which beat me.

I haven't seen a good reason for calling yet.

On June 25 2009 12:54 Benzooor wrote: I call the turn because I have OESD to go with flush draw, would likely have folded unimproved as I just wasn't getting good enough odds without it. I think my flush draw IS good a large percentage of the time, which is why I continue to this point. I appreciate the responses but I think it warrants more discussion. His line is very strong. A big thing you're missing is that my hand is very apparent to the other player, and the board pairs. I am not nearly as afraid of a higher flush draw as I am a boat on this river. He is so far a decent player, full-stacked and not doing anything stupid, running at fairly tight stats. It is very unlikely he would lead out in a multi-way pot and barrel the turn with a bare jack. AA can be ruled out because I think this player would 3bet it nearly 100% of the time preflop. AK can somewhat be ruled out as well for this reason. It is also unlikely that he is doing this with air as there just seems to be no reason for it. To those advocating shove, what am I beating exactly? Sometimes a 3barrel with QT? I really can't see him taking this line with a bare jack. With a bare king he will most likely be checking this river as it is a major scarecard for his hand, although a valuebet is possible with AK/KQ I guess. The rest of his range for firing large on this river includes KJ, sets, and flushes -- ALL of which beat me. I haven't seen a good reason for calling yet.

I d don't get how your hand is face up (not that it would matter at low stakes). You hold one of the only FDs that calls turn to a big bet (A2cc, A5cc, 75cc, 76cc are really the only ones because Jc hit the river) to be honest, your line looks much more like a K than a FD so he should valuebet a J all day. As for full houses, he can basically have 44. Maybe KJs. He can't have KK, J4, or J3, and he doesn't have quads. If you're beat it's because he has a better flush or 44.

when u call it can look like alot of things too, like your getting stubborn with a king (as well as the obvious flush draw)

i mean if hes as good as you say, he will prob try and get value with his AJ AA or numerous other hands and he may fold to shove.

this is a super easy shove

i would call or min raise

On June 25 2009 15:35 TalentedTom wrote: this is a super easy shove

you're always goin against the flow eh?

XD personally i'd rather call here, folding is never an option