should i bet here?

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mikyor United States. Jun 21 2009 07:19. Posts 590

I think a big weakness in my game is 3bet pots when the flop does not help me. hopefully this post can help me.

I do a standard 3bet preflop, but should the amount be bigger?

Now the flop comes and I miss pairing up but pick up BD FD, a gut shot, and 2 over cards. The pot has 3 people in it. I am first to act should I bet out?

Submitted by : mikyor

PokerStars Game #29611739715: Holdem No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2009/06/21 5:46:27 ET
Table Schwall 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: hubitracht ($116.45 in chips)
Seat 2: Bengt79 ($24.50 in chips)
Seat 3: MavRus ($22.95 in chips)
Seat 4: zabsh ($57.55 in chips)
Seat 5: frosty012 ($103.05 in chips)
Seat 6: mkyu123 ($100.50 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero ($102.50 in chips)
Seat 8: bradman15 ($43.65 in chips)
Seat 9: jvbelle ($31.70 in chips)
mkyu123: posts small blind $0.50
Hero: posts big blind $1

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
bradman15: folds
jvbelle: raises $1 to $2
hubitracht: calls $2
Bengt79: folds
MavRus: folds
zabsh: folds
frosty012: folds
mkyu123: folds
Hero: raises $5 to $7
jvbelle: calls $5
hubitracht: calls $5

Flop (Pot : $21.50)

Hero: checks
jvbelle: checks
hubitracht: bets $10
Hero: folds
jvbelle: folds
Uncalled bet ($10) returned to hubitracht
hubitracht collected $20.45 from pot

Summary
Total pot $21.50 | Rake $1.05
Board
Seat 1: hubitracht collected ($20.45)
Seat 2: Bengt79 folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 3: MavRus folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 4: zabsh folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 5: frosty012 (button) folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 6: mkyu123 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Hero (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: bradman15 folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 9: jvbelle folded on the Flop

jvbelle - if I bet i was not concerned with what action he did because he is a shortstack.
hubitracht - at the time my only read was that his preflop calls are loose, and he bets weird(I was not sure what his bets meant).

I initially wanted to bet, but if hubitracht were to call and i miss turn or if he shoved I would have to fold. Betting on the flop then folding later just seems weak in this situation to me. Is my thinking incorrect here?

terrybunny19240 United States. Jun 21 2009 07:39. Posts 13829

9 or maybe 10? you're oop. preflop. 7 is a horrible raise here imo.

c/f flop is fine I think.. gutshot along with your overs is the only thing that might help but I think its still pretty good to c/f
if you don't have the gutshot I think its a clear c/f

Last edit: 21/06/2009 07:40

royalsu Canada. Jun 21 2009 09:51. Posts 3233

I won't comment on this particular situation since you're asking if you're throwing away money in missed AK pots.

This is among the best flop for a missed AK. I hope you're stacking off on flops like 2s6s9h and if you are, you should really consider stacking off on this flop as well.

In a general situation, I want you to use the calculator on the right and see how well your AK does against QQ on this flop. Then I want you to calculate your equity due to the dead money in the pot (whatever amount you have left divided by the total stack sizes of you and your opponent when you guys sat down).

Now here's the thing. let's say you start off with 100bb. Player A raises to 4bb, you reraise to 12 bb. On the flop you cbet 16 bb and he shoves. If the flop is 234 and he has QQ, you're actually making a mistake by folding.

So now it's up to you to study these situations to see where the break even point is. Once you master this there's a ton more of advanced things to consider. For example, fold equity. Or the fact that your bet sizing can actually pot commit yourself.