5r 77 deep

hard to say ..without reads i fold.

chewits there is difference between what he is actually doing and what he is supposed to do.And since he got himself down to 6bbs I assume he is not shoving remotely correct as he is supposed to.He is probably just some random waiting for AA -.-

On June 19 2009 09:31 N1GhtFoX wrote: chewits there is difference between what he is actually doing and what he is supposed to do.And since he got himself down to 6bbs I assume he is not shoving remotely correct as he is supposed to.He is probably just some random waiting for AA -.-

This is not true. You cannot assume that anyone who gets down to 6 BBs does not shove correctly, put him on a tighter range and fold. This is called "overthinking" imo

And you have to ship because you are way ahead of his range, + there is substantial moneyz in the pot already and you are getting favourable odds.

On June 19 2009 11:20 pluzich wrote: Show nested quote + On June 19 2009 09:31 N1GhtFoX wrote: chewits there is difference between what he is actually doing and what he is supposed to do.And since he got himself down to 6bbs I assume he is not shoving remotely correct as he is supposed to.He is probably just some random waiting for AA -.- This is not true. You cannot assume that anyone who gets down to 6 BBs does not shove correctly, put him on a tighter range and fold. This is called "overthinking" imo And you have to ship because you are way ahead of his range, + there is substantial moneyz in the pot already and you are getting favourable odds.

so..... ur saying im WAY ahead with 77s against his range, there's 50 people left out of 2K.
substatntiall moneyz in the pot,, wtf, to call i have to put in 40% of my average stack atm, and hope he flips Ax or whatever, plus im geting like 1.3:1 on my money, i dont know but that looks pretty thin for me.....

plus i like havent won a flip since the first year of the Bush administration.

On June 20 2009 13:02 killaherni wrote: Show nested quote + On June 19 2009 11:20 pluzich wrote:   On June 19 2009 09:31 N1GhtFoX wrote: chewits there is difference between what he is actually doing and what he is supposed to do.And since he got himself down to 6bbs I assume he is not shoving remotely correct as he is supposed to.He is probably just some random waiting for AA -.- This is not true. You cannot assume that anyone who gets down to 6 BBs does not shove correctly, put him on a tighter range and fold. This is called "overthinking" imo And you have to ship because you are way ahead of his range, + there is substantial moneyz in the pot already and you are getting favourable odds. so..... ur saying im WAY ahead with 77s against his range, there's 50 people left out of 2K. substatntiall moneyz in the pot,, wtf, to call i have to put in 40% of my average stack atm, and hope he flips Ax or whatever, plus im geting like 1.3:1 on my money, i dont know but that looks pretty thin for me..... plus i like havent won a flip since the first year of the Bush administration.

yes. If you are 55/45 against his range are getting 1.3-1 odds that's an edge you cannot pass.

How can anyone be possibly thinking about anything but re-shipping this here? Is this a bad beat post? Boo-hoo, he had a higher PP and you got screwed over, move on.

If it isn't near the effective bubble I wouldn't ever think about not shipping this.

lol i guess u are write. I called only to see he had 10s. But if u think about it. when is he shoving UTG hands we beat and hands that have us beat? The bubble was long gone. Ur saying this is an easy call cause its justified by the odds like if it was any other flip. It's barley a flip and we are very deep. I don't think he is shoving hands we flip like A rag or even a smaller PP that often. Besides, isnt his range crushing ur hand?

On June 22 2009 00:05 killaherni wrote: lol i guess u are write. I called only to see he had 10s. But if u think about it. when is he shoving UTG hands we beat and hands that have us beat? The bubble was long gone. Ur saying this is an easy call cause its justified by the odds like if it was any other flip. It's barley a flip and we are very deep. I don't think he is shoving hands we flip like A rag or even a smaller PP that often. Besides, isnt his range crushing ur hand?

If you think about it, he has M=2.5 and will be BB next hand, so after exactly 2 hands he will have 0 fold equity. He is shoving 50K to win 20K. In this situation I ship any A, any K, any Q, any J, any 2 suited, most Ts and 9s and connectors, including 2 gapped. Thats like 75-80% of the hands? If the table has been tight I probably ship any 2. So yeah, 77 are waaay ahead of a normal shipping range of someone with M=2.5.

lol everyone saying easy easy call..
i said i fold since if we are wrong and he has overpair and mostly 2 overcards its best 66% chance that its flip. But if we loose that flip we are really shorstack.. but atm he has decent stack to wait to get his money in better spot

On June 22 2009 06:26 wolfheart wrote: lol everyone saying easy easy call.. i said i fold since if we are wrong and he has overpair and mostly 2 overcards its best 66% chance that its flip. But if we loose that flip we are really shorstack.. but atm he has decent stack to wait to get his money in better spot

exactly

its a really really easy allin.. pushers range is like any ace any king any queen any pocket and most connectors..

utg is the new button

umm.. he should be pushing any two here, we should assume that he's pushing any two and we should re-shove 100% of the time with 77.

i would all inn here. try to not played "scared" late stage tourney, go for the win

the question is do you want almost half your chips in on a coin flip at best (in most cases)??

this is alot of talking when you should just re shuv

his range is weak, but im not crazy abou calling off half of my stack with what like... 15bb when i know im prolly flipping or dead to a 2 outter (i.e. 9s shoving).

I'm new to MTTs but figured I'd get started at this forum, just like at 5nl. =p


Fwiw, from a pure cEV standpoint, you have to call because the pot (assuming bb doesn't get involved....which should matter imo but I'll disregard for now) is something like 120k after you're both allin, and you need to call ~49k more. You need to be good about 40% of the time.


If he's open shoving AJ+, KQs+, 22+, you're definitely +cEV with 77, ~2-3% dog (to win) vs his range. I would venture to guess that he's shoving a little looser than that. A9/AT at least.

I'm a big ICM noob, so would anyone be able to explain in depth why this could possibly be a fold? If this isn't the FT and the value of having a 20-30bb stack will let you coast and set up for a big stack later on, don't we need to be taking flips like this?

Basically, how is this at all different from, say, us raising AK pf, getting 3bet by an ultranit, and taking pretty much a flip against his 4bet calling range at this stage in the tourney?

i would love to flip here

lol its a $5 rebuy ppl don't shove any two they blind out waiting for aces