AA on the river

Submitted by : Joe

** Hand # 2381160345 starting - 2009-01-23 17:41:52
** Bravery Of Being 2 [Hold 'em] (10.00|20.00 NL - Cash Game) Real Money
EvoVIII sitting in seat 1 with €1886.50
pocketolsen sitting in seat 2 with €686.32
MAlTRE06 sitting in seat 3 with €8091.00
eyedol sitting in seat 4 with €1980.00[Sitting out]
Joeik4 sitting in seat 5 with €4373.00
_SweetHoney_ sitting in seat 6 with €2486.00[Dealer]
EvoVIII posted the small blind - €10.00
pocketolsen posted the big blind - €20.00

Holecards
   
MAlTRE06 raised to €50.00
Joeik4 raised to €220.00
_SweetHoney_ folded
EvoVIII folded
pocketolsen folded
MAlTRE06 called - €220.00

Flop (Pot : $470.00)

   
MAlTRE06 checked
Joeik4 bet - €330.00
MAlTRE06 raised to €850.00
Joeik4 called - €850.00

Turn (Pot : $2,170.00)

   
MAlTRE06 checked
Joeik4 checked

River (Pot : $2,170.00)

   
MAlTRE06 bet - €1400.00
Joeik4 ?

I think he has JTs here a bit, maybe KQs (only 2 combos though) and maybe QQ that beats you. Playing kings like this would be weird but I guess he could have that like half the time so put in one combo of that too. KJs/KTs if he can have that might value light here, umm, unless he knows your rep but if he does that he'll probably bluff here and might call you lighter etc. I guess he could have a bunch of sets (77 and 99). Don't think he can have 86 or something cause he won't raise that UTG pf and call a rr that often, and turn would make no sense.

I don't think he'll try to get you off better then AQ here, except maybe KJ/KT but he won't put that in your range that often.

I'd say turn is some kind of pot controll/give up mostly.

Overall I don't think it's a supe easy call but I'd say fuck it and look him up anyway. Too much random shit can turn up here so I think AA is good enough, and even if it isn't its nice to know what the hell he plays like this.

with the nitreputation you have on lp this should be a snapfold, not sure how you play in reality though.

or a pretty clear +ev bluff noting that joe didnt bet the turn, I as that MAITRE guy would bet a bit more on a bluff (vs Joe)

I think alot has to do with his preflop-range. Does he open a wide range? Does he call alot of reraises? I think that gives you a better view of the situation.

In general it's silly to interprit his turn check as anything but weak untill he gives you a reason not to, you really need to bet betting turn and shoving river. As played you got yourself into a gay spot, if you think K is a scarecard so is Q, J, T, 8, 6 maybe 9. These cards don't have to change anything but by giving a free card here you open up a TON of bluff oppurtunities on ~40% of rivers. Therefore as played you have no idea where your at but you have to call since hes gonna be bluffing a TON or be value betting worse VIA AK, KJ, KT etc...

so tom you would fire into him again on the turn and call a shove?

On January 23 2009 16:30 asdf2000 wrote: so tom you would fire into him again on the turn and call a shove?

yeah I'd snap bet/call turn against this player. It takes a really special player to go for a double check raise (either very bad or very tricky), 90%+ of the time this is not the case, his hand is VERY often some marginal made hand looking to showdown or bluff gone bad and giving up

yeah i guess you're right
somehow i failed to notice that villain was oop lol

Yea, looking back at the hand I think betting the turn is way better than checking it back too.

But anyways, what are the factors/stats/... I should be looking for in this river spot when deciding whether to call or not? I have some idea but wanna hear what u guys think.

click call and lol!

On January 23 2009 18:12 Joe wrote: Yea, looking back at the hand I think betting the turn is way better than checking it back too. But anyways, what are the factors/stats/... I should be looking for in this river spot when deciding whether to call or not? I have some idea but wanna hear what u guys think.

who gives a shit about stats on the river unless hes a meganit whos pot controlling bottom set

double checkraise
KQ and JT usually flat us on the flop this deep. His raise, ~500 into ~1100 is so small and with his turn check it hard to give villain credit for a big hand.

Villain has KJ KT here a lot and is trying to get value off AQ.

he's just trying to take down the pot with a bluff on the river because you showed weakness on the turn, but maybe he actually did have JT, but why would he call with JT on that flop when he didn't have the odds? It's more likely to me that he's holding KQ, or AQ, possibly even QJ. and my real question is he checked to you why the shit didn't you raise the pot and force him off a draw? Clearly the 5 was a blank RAISE he checked, if he reraised hes either bluffing or he has the nuts if he calls he probably has KQ and top pair, I highly doubt he has anything. I'd put my money on the fact that he has top pair bad kicker.

In all honestly the turn was the mistake, You shouldv'e raised there because you don't want him outdrawing you on the river. That's what I think, You basically have his range beat seems to me if hes a decent player he'd call the big raise with, any pocket pair and any premium hand. I'd just call to see what he had but man :.

It's not like he check raised you on the flop just smooth called.

On February 13 2009 01:38 ScY wrote: he's just trying to take down the pot with a bluff on the river because you showed weakness on the turn, but maybe he actually did have JT, but why would he call with JT on that flop when he didn't have the odds? It's more likely to me that he's holding KQ, or AQ, possibly even QJ. and my real question is he checked to you why the shit didn't you raise the pot and force him off a draw? Clearly the 5 was a blank RAISE he checked, if he reraised hes either bluffing or he has the nuts if he calls he probably has KQ and top pair, I highly doubt he has anything. I'd put my money on the fact that he has top pair bad kicker. In all honestly the turn was the mistake, You shouldv'e raised there because you don't want him outdrawing you on the river. That's what I think, You basically have his range beat seems to me if hes a decent player he'd call the big raise with, any pocket pair and any premium hand. I'd just call to see what he had but man :. It's not like he check raised you on the flop just smooth called.

wat, are you talking about the same hand ?

I don't think you should ever care to lose 100bb in a 3bet pot with Aces

river is a call obv

I'd say fold. People usually give utg1 3bets credit and he has a hand that beats a pair here. The only one pair hand i can see him having is AQ.

But call anyway for shits and giggles cause folding AA at any given time during a hand is wrong !

theres value in checking turn behind probably more value than betting turn for most players. We're against bluff a lot so checking turn makes sense.

villain's line is weird.
Set would bet turn,
TJ would check raise river allin,
AQ would check fold
KK would play like that
Air would definetly take a shot at that river.


1400 into 2200... i call