River valuebet?

Submitted by : Joe

** Hand # 2355862867 starting - 2009-01-09 03:04:35
** Against All Odds 2 [Hold 'em] (5.00|10.00 NL - Cash Game) Real Money
CielIvey sitting in seat 1 with €1662.00
Brummis sitting in seat 2 with €2831.50
Joeik4 sitting in seat 3 with €1000.00[Dealer]
kv01mlg sitting in seat 4 with €1620.25
Sacre sitting in seat 5 with €960.00
Perseverer sitting in seat 6 with €2186.75
kv01mlg posted the small blind - €5.00
Sacre posted the big blind - €10.00

Holecards
   
Perseverer called - €10.00
CielIvey folded
Brummis folded
Joeik4 raised to €45.00
kv01mlg folded
Sacre folded
Perseverer called - €45.00

Flop (Pot : $105.00)

   
Perseverer checked
Joeik4 bet - €81.00
Perseverer called - €81.00

Turn (Pot : $267.00)

   
Perseverer checked
Joeik4 bet - €195.00
Perseverer called - €195.00

River (Pot : $657.00)

   
Perseverer checked
Joeik4 ?

I kind of understand your dilemma. You kind of want to valuebet, but then you get potstuck. Do you think he will call you with 98 or 88 on river? If not I guess you can check it down. If he is enough retarded I guess you are obliged to valuebet. But I agree that the backdoor flushdraw is kind of annoying.

;/ am i the only one who thinks this is a snapshove vs like 95% of players

BTW if your worried about him having 2 pair that makes this even more of a snapshove because that suggests he has a very wide range

allin

I've gotten it in vs 55 on a JJ8ss board where he called my shove for just over 100bb. I think this is a pretty clear vb. Or just bet gay if you feel that it will induce more.

Pretty easy snap vbet. If you aren't getting a bunch of calls from worse hands, then you've been doing something wrong before this hand imo.

superman dat hoe

Snap shove vs anyone who makes it a habit to limp-call utg here, and not raise you on any previous street

Christ, I wish my difficult descions were this hard

On January 09 2009 15:30 TalentedTom wrote: Christ, I wish my difficult descions were this hard

QFT

you should tank and shove cuz then that looks like you actually had a decision on the river.

I am still kind of undecided about this hand to be honest.

Imo:
What he can have that goes check-call and beats me: 9T, 97, maybe TT, maybe 4d5d, maybe Tc7c + possibly some other backdoor flushes that decided to slowplay river.

What he can have that might go check-call that I beat: A9s, TcJc, maybe Tc8c, maybe 98s.

I put it into pokerstove and it says I have about 35%. (see spoiler for details)

+ Show Spoiler +

Then of course there are hands that he can have on the river that I beat but he wont call a bet/shove with. Like some club draws, lets say: Ac2c-Ac7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c

When I add those, I have about 54% according to pokerstove. (Details in spoiler)

+ Show Spoiler +

Of course it doesnt take into account, that some hands are more likely than others. Still, it seems to me like kind of a marginal spot. Is my thinking wrong somewhere?

On January 09 2009 16:26 YoMeR wrote: Show nested quote + On January 09 2009 15:30 TalentedTom wrote: Christ, I wish my difficult descions were this hard QFT you should tank and shove cuz then that looks like you actually had a decision on the river.

Hehe, that is actually exactly what I did in the hand

I'm with you so far as that it's a though spot vs good players without payoff wizard syndrome, but not vs this guy really.

On January 10 2009 06:25 DustySwedeDude wrote: I'm with you so far as that it's a though spot vs good players without payoff wizard syndrome, but not vs this guy really.

what no

i dont care if im playing against phil ivey im shoving all my money in on this river, you basically need a really strong read to not shove this river

Tom, any commentary to the ranges and stove results I posted?

He limp/called pre. Had it been a normal raise pot I'd be with you, but right now I feel that his range i weighted towards shit that hit this board and/or doesn't have any sd-value at all. If you get paid of it's probably by like 7cXc or 44-55 which aren't playing like this that often. It's still a valueshove vs unknowns, but if he/she doesn't herocall that much it's not a very clear one at all. Most people herocall too much though, so w/e.

the ranges you posted make him a huge fish, hes UTG limp calling out of position with hands like A9s, T9s, 56s type hands etc... making this a super easy shove, if hes UTG limping w/ this garbage we need to play our hand face up all day. giving someone like this a free showodwn is lighting money on fire

also if hes folding all worse hands on a regular basis because hes that good, we need to start isolating his limps w/ duck tape over our cards so we dont wuss out and 3 barrel all day

but the fact of the matter is 3 barreling here is bad because fish never fold on these boards