50NL AA oop in 3 way pot

Villain is 23/17, aggression 1.6 from just 70 hands. I'm 20/19 on this table and usually push such flops with big draws/overpairs but maybe he doesnt know much for me.

Submitted by : staxxx

GAME #1304243069: Texas Hold'em NL $0.25/$0.50 2008-12-04 11:09:49
Table Lephalale
Seat 1: YouRunSoSickHot $50.75 in chips
Seat 3: tesorillos $47.75 in chips DEALER
Seat 5: TP12 $38.02 in chips
Seat 8: xneckox $37.85 in chips
Seat 10: Hero $69.00 in chips
TP12: Post SB $0.25
xneckox: Post BB $0.50

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
Hero : Raise NF $1.50
YouRunSoSickHot: Call $1.50
tesorillos: Call $1.50
TP12: Fold
xneckox: Fold

Flop (Pot : $5.25)

   
Hero : Bet $4.00
YouRunSoSickHot: Raise NF $13.00
tesorillos: Fold
Hero :

5-handed I would never fold AA here because sets are hard to flop and there are two diamonds. Get it in.

being 3way however yourun is going to be more likely to flat draws and play big hands fast.

you have 2 aces making the NFD less likely

the board would be slightly better if it was 8h2d3d adding some pair+draws

if he raises a draw will he call it off bad if you shove?

some questions to ask

you're behind 222 333 888 only and if there is even a small chance he has 99+ you lose a lot by folding.

jam take note

i really feel like he has a set here though fuck

2 80 bb fish at ur table. he hasn't been very aggressive. He flats pre then gets hyphy 3ways.

I just don't think he is raising any draw cept like 45dd and probably 3bets overpairs pre

or even if he has like 991010 I doubt he is aware of the advantage of using his relative position to raise (defines tesor's hand 100% and pretty much yours too)

He 3bets pre 14% so he should raise QQ+ maybe even JJ. Now im checking some ranges in pokerstove and if put him on JJ-88/33/22/flush draw, im 60% to win. Against sets/fd and just JJ im 50/50. The problem is i dont think 99-JJ would raise the flop with such small aggression. And if i leave only the sets and draws in his range thats what i have:
Hand 0: 33.92% { AcAh }
Hand 1: 65.93% { 88, 33-22, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad3d, JdTd, Td9d, 7d6d, 6d5d, 5d4d, 4d3d }

So with almost no history, with just $5 invested, fold seems better to me now.

and i dont even think he'd raise with draw here

btw i pushed and he showed 22

On December 04 2008 05:52 edzwoo wrote: 5-handed I would never fold AA here because sets are hard to flop and there are two diamonds. Get it in.

Nice logic...

On December 04 2008 06:03 traxamillion wrote: being 3way however yourun is going to be more likely to flat draws and play big hands fast. you have 2 aces making the NFD less likely the board would be slightly better if it was 8h2d3d adding some pair+draws if he raises a draw will he call it off bad if you shove? some questions to ask

How having 2 aces makes NFD with other Ace less likely ? ... You can have 6s7s and he'll have Ad the same amount of time when you have AsAh or w/e...

Yeah, him having TP + FD is "slightly better" because ??? We're flipping more now?

Anyway - fold vs this guy 3way...

On December 04 2008 08:54 Brobebrato wrote: Show nested quote + On December 04 2008 05:52 edzwoo wrote: 5-handed I would never fold AA here because sets are hard to flop and there are two diamonds. Get it in. Nice logic...

Maybe sounded a bit comical but I'm dead serious.

staxxx, how good of a read do you have on him? Some people go ahead and raise 8x here as well.

The aggression factor stat is really just garbage. All it means is that he bet and raised a few more times than he's called, and especially over 70 hands, it doesn't really indicate much.

Based on the fact that he did this with a set because he's probably afraid of the flush, would he not do it with top pair as well?

This is an instant fold if he 3bets 14%. That means he's 3-betting probably 99+ and lots of FD+overs combos. There really isn't much of his range other than 54dd, sets, and bluffs that take this line, and I don't like bluffcatching multiway on the flop.

Over a 70 hand sample a 14% 3bet means nothing in terms of range. It's a dangerous stat to base much on with anything but a decent sample size imo. This is probably 14 opportunities to 3bet and he 3bet twice.....

Having said that his general stats don't look out of line and flatting you PF would make me wary of PP's. I am probably folding here if I thought about it enough with my mouse pointer hovering over the 'shove' button.....

folding isn't justified imo. Id 3bet this oop, sometimes shove. if in position call flop and get it in on non-d turns more often.

On December 04 2008 08:58 Brobebrato wrote: Show nested quote + On December 04 2008 06:03 traxamillion wrote: being 3way however yourun is going to be more likely to flat draws and play big hands fast. you have 2 aces making the NFD less likely the board would be slightly better if it was 8h2d3d adding some pair+draws if he raises a draw will he call it off bad if you shove? some questions to ask How having 2 aces makes NFD with other Ace less likely ? ... You can have 6s7s and he'll have Ad the same amount of time when you have AsAh or w/e... Yeah, him having TP + FD is "slightly better" because ??? We're flipping more now? Anyway - fold vs this guy 3way...

yea i was trippin there my bad he doesn't have Ad

and i said 8h2d3d was better imo because then he can actually have some combodraws not just straight sets so we are flipping more as opposed to crushed more but it really doesn't change much

with the 2 aces i meant that we block the top pair outs thats the nfd usually has vs overpairs

don't look to laydown monster overpairs in raised pots without knowing ur opponents well

folding to sets is something you should do because u know the opponent well enough

hard decision .....its practicaly a coin flip! if he raised a draw he will be willing to comit to it and call a shove. most probably he has an over pair. i think call the bet and shove any non diamond turn.