tough spot

this guy is an active raiser like 20/17 i think, cont bets 67% the time
Submitted by : GuyRichard

PokerStars Game #22246317155: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2008/11/21 19:36:06 ET
Table 'Alphard II' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: NutPopper ($60 in chips)
Seat 2: eating_Y ($208.40 in chips)
Seat 3: capfantastic ($90.20 in chips)
Seat 4: xpjsx ($207.35 in chips)
Seat 5: Hero ($793.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Mizouri ($376.95 in chips)
Mizouri: posts small blind $1
NutPopper: posts big blind $2

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
eating_Y: folds
capfantastic: folds
xpjsx: raises $4 to $6
Hero : calls $6
Mizouri: calls $5
NutPopper: folds

Flop (Pot : $20.00)

   
Mizouri: checks
xpjsx: bets $9
Hero : calls $9
Mizouri: folds

Turn (Pot : $38.00)

   
xpjsx: bets $29
Hero : calls $29

River (Pot : $96.00)

   
xpjsx: bets $100
Hero : folds
Uncalled bet ($100) returned to xpjsx
xpjsx collected $93 from pot
xpjsx: doesn't show hand

Summary
Total pot $96 | Rake $3
Board  
Seat 1: NutPopper (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: eating_Y folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: capfantastic folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: xpjsx collected ($93)
Seat 5: Hero (button) folded on the River
Seat 6: Mizouri (small blind) folded on the Flop

what is his normal cbet size?

would probably 3bet him pre; as played I might call the river would depend on whats going on that session

his betsizing is kinda wack

how s that a tough spot?

i click the "bet pot" button on the flop

raise his pants on the flop, and get it all in

I doubt I would raise the flop

you want him to fold the hands you beat and call with the hands that lose?



only way I would ever raise the flop is if he is *very* tight

Either raise flop like other people suggested or fold as played. This is one of those times where you get to the river for one reason (chasing a flush) and then forget that your hand is likely beat because of your kicker and convince yourself to call. Very standard fold on river.

Raising flop is good because outside of having excellent equity versus made Ax hands, you fold out a ton of other stuff he can be raising with PF. Also, depending on your image with him, he might call flop and fold turn (because you are gona shove turn if your flop raise is called) with some made hands. Or just fold them of flop. Short version, you have great fold equity and great odds versus made hands that are willing to gambol it up.

On November 21 2008 23:21 phexac wrote: Raising flop is good because outside of having excellent equity versus made Ax hands,

if you consider excellent equity to be a small underdog

you fold out a ton of other stuff he can be raising with PF.

all of which you already have beat so why in the world would you want to make him fold

travis is 100% here

and this is an easy fold as played

furthermore this is like the LOLest of leaks if you tend to autoraise here

why the hell would he bet the flop 9i20 with A2, if hes betting like this, hes basically planning to fold to a reraise. and if he gets called, he try to analyze if hes up against a draw/weaker pair and value bet. or maybe 43 witha cheap continuation bet.
hes got to have 0 showdown val or 100% showdown val on this river to bet like this.
even if hes KJspade
he should just check call the river.
for me to be good means
hes got to have a gutshot on flop missed turn but picked up spade draw thought had fold eq so bet again, and so on the river hes got 0 showdown. he needs no showdown.
100i100
he knows i might be draw, might be weak ace
so 100i100 garantees draw to fold, good chance weak ace folds.

you know the villain vital myth?

I have played with this guy a bit at .50/1 full ring. From what I've seen he rarely gets out of line and is generally pretty nitty, fairly solid. I think river is an easy fold.

On November 22 2008 01:50 GuyRichard wrote: why the hell would he bet the flop 9i20 with A2, if hes betting like this, hes basically planning to fold to a reraise.

...? if he bets smaller, he makes it easier/cheaper/more likely for you to raise as a bluff, semibluff, or thin value bet. just one reason why he would bet small with a good hand. i can think of more.

and if he gets called, he try to analyze if hes up against a draw/weaker pair and value bet. or maybe 43 witha cheap continuation bet.

or, if he gets called, he is thinking "sweet! i'm keeping him in with some kind of total garbage because i bet small on the flop. look how awesome i am at extracting thin value. but since there's another draw on the turn i better bet larger to protect my hand"

hes got to have 0 showdown val or 100% showdown val on this river to bet like this.

or he's thinking "awesome, no scare cards came, my AQ is almost 100% good, time to bet pot and make it look like i missed a flush draw so that he'll call me"

even if hes KJspade he should just check call the river.

or he's thinking "crap i only have king high, i better bet pot to rep the big ace so he folds"

for me to be good means hes got to have a gutshot on flop missed turn but picked up spade draw thought had fold eq so bet again, and so on the river hes got 0 showdown. he needs no showdown.

or he has hearts. or he has KK and is tilting and thinking "fuck, kings CAN'T lose AGAIN!!" or he has TT and thought he was value betting the flop but decided to turn his hand into a bluff, somehow figuring you'd fold a weak ace. or he has 22 and is so excited to have quads that he is thinking "SWEET i'll just POT IT, cmon...PAY ME OFF!! ONE TIME!!!!!!"

100i100 he knows i might be draw, might be weak ace so 100i100 garantees draw to fold, good chance weak ace folds.

or he knows that people just hate to fold so he is correctly bombing for value with AJ. or he just has AA and is praying that you'll call, without thinking why you might call


i'm not really sure what you're talking about to begin with but i also don't agree with any points in your analysis

this is an easy fold because the villain is unlikely to be bluffing this much money on this kind of board, or, more specifically, bluffing this much money in general. that's true of almost 100% of people in almost 100% of situations. if you haven't seen this opponent bluffing with this kind of line before, or a similar kind of line before, or AT LEAST in large pots before, then you just don't have a good reason to suspect that he's bluffing here.

"but he knows that i know that he knows that i know that he knows ... AND he's going to play in exactly the most sensible manner obviously because nobody ever makes a mistake, so since i already know he's never doing anything stupid, he therefore cannot possibly have ___" <--- worst possible manner of thinking

Gogo Myth <3

On November 21 2008 23:20 asdf2000 wrote: I doubt I would raise the flop you want him to fold the hands you beat and call with the hands that lose? only way I would ever raise the flop is if he is *very* tight

River muck is probably the move. Think about what you do on the river if u never had the FD in the first place. If the answer is yes, then muck. Forget about the FD on the river.

On November 23 2008 07:16 Babygrand wrote: River muck is probably the move. Think about what you do on the river if u never had the FD in the first place. If the answer is yes, then muck. Forget about the FD on the river.

it may sound lame to some people but I think this is very good advice

didnt read all of myths big post but ya definitely don't raise flop. especially not 3way you want the other guy in. as for the river.. i might call a halfpot bet vs some people but not potsize unless hes a maniac or has been pushing you out of a ton of pots.