NL400 Uber draw vs Overpot C/R

Submitted by : JonnyCosMo

PokerStars Game #22216836167: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) - 2008/11/20 18:53:14 ET
Table 'Moultona II' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: nico180880 ($388.65 in chips)
Seat 2: ChomedyMitch ($201.65 in chips)
Seat 3: JonnyCosMo ($580 in chips)
Seat 4: NineThumps ($400 in chips)
Seat 5: mkgringo ($80 in chips)
Seat 6: bouh ($638.50 in chips)
mkgringo: posts small blind $2
bouh: posts big blind $4

Holecards
Dealt to JonnyCosMo
nico180880: folds
ChomedyMitch: folds
JonnyCosMo : raises $8 to $12
NineThumps: folds
mkgringo: folds
bouh: calls $8

Flop (Pot : $26.00)

   
bouh: checks
JonnyCosMo : bets $16
bouh: raises $76 to $92
JonnyCosMo :

Sick fucking $92 bomb check raise imo

his c/r sizing is basically telling you that you have no fold equity. Your 35-40% against a set. and about 43% against 2pair. And given stack sizes, seems like a very very easy fold.

I don't think a call is bad either. You only need to make like 80 dollars or something (not sure i didnt do the exact math) on the turn if you hit to make it profitable. Given theres 400 behind i don't see a problem with peeling one. He's not just gunna c/f a set or 2p when a diamond comes, especially since our hand won't even look like a draw since naked fd's fold and combo draws usually raise. I guess he could have AXdd on occasion, but i dont know how often he's gunna defend oop with shitty Ax's though. I'd probably just ship it in though. Anyway imo this tends to be a shove or a call, and not a fold.

On November 20 2008 21:40 JonnyCosMo wrote: bouh (19/17/4) is a pretty tough, solid NL400 & 600 reg.

wtf no he's not. he's terrible

i have him running at like 20ish/10ish/2 or something like that

and yeah, you have absolutely no fold equity here

so cawl

don't like shoving because there aren't many realistic draws that you dominate: 76d 56d.

Everything else has you crushed.

call and then if a brick comes and he pots fold? thats what i would do given these stats but im not sure...that or push tricky spot.

well according to cosmo hes sayin the guy is a tough reg. I just dont see this guy stacking off if a flush turns, unless he has a higher flush. I guess a call is better than shoving, but i dont see why folding is such a bad option considering the situation.

bouh isnt a tough reg, hes a nitty donk and has a set always. call and try to hit cause he'll pay off, but you have zero FE.

On November 21 2008 01:58 Trey wrote: bouh isnt a tough reg, hes a nitty donk and has a set always. call and try to hit cause he'll pay off, but you have zero FE.

this.

What must your world look like where bouh is a tough reg? He's always been one of the easiest to play against extremely tight passive nits with a tendency to tilt.

Hmmm 145 BBs deep,I'd go right ahead and 4bet the flop $236 and shove any turn ldo 100BBs but 145BBs .....ughhhh.I think I'd sooner call.If he isn't that strong I can't see him firing a bogey turn even,pehaps we could get a free card.
If we 4ball this it's pretty sick to get it in 45%ish at best mehhh

I'm starting to think fold is the best option given his huge raise size and if you think he won't pay off a turned flush. Also, I'm interested in the mathematics of a call here against A) set B) overpair. I much prefer to call if this was a 3b pot because we're almost never drawing dead if turn pairs whereas in this case he should always have ~25% ish against our flush on the turn.

I'd like to see a 2/4 player that someone isn't going to automatically call horrible.

nannonokokok?

The overraise tells me he prolly crunched a set of 44 here. I prolly just muck it. Gotta muck a lot of FDs to nits. Payoff pot odds probably arent there to try to hit either. But call fold turn isn't a terrible play.

/off Am I the only one thinking Splasher's advices are full of shit/at least baaad...?

I'm a donk, but isn't this a reasonable range for this type of player ? Not sure if Axs of diamonds is in his range. Don't think your equity is very good here.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.664% 65.37% 00.30% 42534094 191993.50 { AA, JJ, 44, AQs, QJs, AQo }
Hand 1: 34.336% 34.04% 00.30% 22149471 191993.50 { Td8d }

only 28 invested. to get all the money in way behind seems like a major spew..

Its been some time since I played with him but I always considered Bouh as one of the fishy regulars. He was running like 35/11 in my PT database.

To the hand: Well this is not an uber draw in my opinion, it is a 12-outer at best. Also, you are way behind AdKd (unlikely but possible) and Kd9d. If it was for 100bb and with some aggro history I would be more inclined to ship it in, but being somewhat deeper I think it is somewhat better to just fold it.