Value in Big Guarunteed MTTs

I'm just curious what kind of ranges of ROIs can be expected by different types of players in different tournies. I realize the answers to these questions will be kinda gross generalities and depends, etc. but just curious to see some numbers.

What sort of range of ROIs can be expected for the illest online tourney player in the Super Tuesday, Wed Quarter Mil, Sunday Warmup, Sunday Million, Sunday 500, Sunday 2nd chance, Sunday 200R, FTP 750k, FTOPS (any big ones I'm missing)?

What about for an average tourney grinder?

What about for a 5/10+ cash game player/tourney donk?

What about for a 5/10+ cash game player that understands the ins and outs of tournament strategy?

i don't think it's possible to generalise like this but even so i'm curious as well

When its red and bold and says guaranteed it attracts a lot more fish that's all I know
And thus +EV for you

all depends on sample size and how long the player has been a competent tournament player

theres much different levels of competency in tournament play, tight nits who luckbox a couple tournaments and go months without wins, lag players who score more big wins but get itm much less often, and competent tag players like elky who just destroy

just search stats on a range of players to gague this

use uh, idk

Elky - standard tag pro's roi
Mig.com - tourney specialist and hero's roi
TwistedEcho - good tournament grinder and very solid all around player
Daut44 - nit with great understanding of the games roi
LostAccount (JLost88 stars id) - 3 top 20 finishes in sunday mil this year - lag tournament player

hope that helps

Ryan

im almost certain any decent player (90% of LP) has >100% roi in the sunday mill

arbitrary # tho --;

Neilly seriously please stop posting terrible answers that you just pull out of your ass.

Elky "standard tag" yeah good point. Daut's a 'huge nit'

You obviously just post things that you hope make it look like you know what you are talking about and I know you are only doing it to try and repair your rep or anything, but trust me... you are just digging yourself deeper.

Rik i'll try to give you an answer later, but i'm in rush right now

On November 17 2008 06:29 RiKD wrote: I'm just curious what kind of ranges of ROIs can be expected by different types of players in different tournies. I realize the answers to these questions will be kinda gross generalities and depends, etc. but just curious to see some numbers. What sort of range of ROIs can be expected for the illest online tourney player in the Super Tuesday, Wed Quarter Mil, Sunday Warmup, Sunday Million, Sunday 500, Sunday 2nd chance, Sunday 200R, FTP 750k, FTOPS (any big ones I'm missing)? What about for an average tourney grinder? What about for a 5/10+ cash game player/tourney donk? What about for a 5/10+ cash game player that understands the ins and outs of tournament strategy?

ok I quoted it so I could see this easier.

Your ROI is obv. going to be lowest in the tournaments that have the toughest fields. This is b/c more people are playing correctly so the variance increases as well. These tournaments would be like the 1k's each week, most 100r's (not the Sunday early one typicially and soem of the earlier 70k ones are good), and the 200r on Sunday. Most of the higher BI's during the FTOPS/WCOOPS (like the 1k's + ) are usually pretty tough fields as well.

The next tier would be the 150 nightly's on each site, and the weds. as well. I'd lump the Sundays majors all in this category as well, and b/c they recently added satellites the Sunday 500. That tournament is probably the hardest of this tier, with the softest being the Warm up imo.

Avg tournament players usually don't play the higher tier tournaments that I listed b/c the fields is mostly regulars who are at least somewhat established winners. They are the types of players who are usually the weaker players in this tier b/c as I said the fields are comprised of mostly above avg. players. In the next tier though they can be winners b/c all of these mtt's have random bad shot takers and casual bad regs, more satellites, etc..

Your other two questions are pretty vague but I'll see if I can give you a decent answer. Obviously I would expect a 5/10 cash player to be able to win in the 2nd tier and most lkely the first tier, but tbh the deeper they get in tournaments, the smaller their edge gets b/c most of them don't know the math with antes, or how to adjust and play the awkward stacks (15-30 bb's). I assume that that knowledge is what you mean when you say "knows the ins and outs of tournament strategy". If that's the case yeah I think that player could be a winner in the upper tiers probably fairly easily with experience.

for tournys with fields as big as the ones mentioned in op, its pretty much total speculation and guesswork what typical rois might be for any sort of player in these once-a-week big field events since youd prob need centuries or millenia before you can start to get anywhere in statistical reliability of data. to get a picture of what im saying, think of how many hundreds of 9 man SnGs you have to play before your ROI is somewhere vaguely near where it 'should' be. And now think of how much less variance a 9 person field tourny is than a 1000++ person field. And now think of how quickly you can get a decent sample size going in sngs (khanesque multitabling) vs how quickly you can get a decent sample size in mtts that run once a week.

im not a statistician nor have i done any actual attempt at math on this but i would not at all be surprised if for the mtts mentioned, our best guesses for typical rois could VERY easily deviate by 50%++ from the 'true values'

neilly let me give u some advice, when i see a topic where i have no fking clue, i decide to not post in it so i can save myself from embarassment and scorn.

On November 17 2008 20:02 Ket wrote: centuries or millenia

hooooooooooooooooow CAN SHE CENTURIES?

hooooooooooooooooow CAN SHE CENTURIES?

i have no idea what this is about, but i can't stop laughing. thanks myth you made my hour.

cool posts patrik (you deserve the spelling) and ket. i know the questions were kinda shitty and i had some good ideas of the answers but you guys summed it up very nicely. ty.

as for cwin....

how can you centuries you fuckin bastert!?!?!

Katana , Baraka , and Lui Kang all expect 125%+ ROI's this season