400NL nutdraw vs c/r

villain seems a little fishy. this is the second time in 50 hands that he c/r me postflop at a moment i didnt expect it.
shove flop? fold flop? fold turn?
Submitted by : piratematerial

PokerStars Game #20968358187: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) - 2008/10/06 5:17:07 ET
Table 'Zulu' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Wadmaster ($406 in chips)
Seat 2: W.A.Rebel ($400 in chips)
Seat 3: EamonnH ($868 in chips)
Seat 4: pokerhaasje ($394 in chips)
Seat 5: DITONTO ($232.45 in chips)
DITONTO: posts small blind $2
tobinata: is sitting out
tobinata leaves the table
Wadmaster: posts big blind $4

Holecards
Dealt to pokerhaasje
W.A.Rebel: raises $10 to $14
EamonnH: calls $14
pokerhaasje : calls $14
DITONTO: calls $12
Wadmaster: folds

Flop (Pot : $60.00)

   
DITONTO: checks
W.A.Rebel: checks
EamonnH: checks
pokerhaasje : bets $44
DITONTO: folds
W.A.Rebel: folds
EamonnH: raises $106 to $150
pokerhaasje : calls $106

Turn (Pot : $360.00)

   
EamonnH: bets $230

sfove flop. as played fold.

yes fold turn, do the math

like this tally?

Board: Qh 9d 5d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.248% 60.25% 00.00% 1458 0.00 { Ad3d }
Hand 1: 39.752% 39.75% 00.00% 962 0.00 { AA, 99, 55, KJs+, KdTd, JTs, 8d7d, KJo+, JTo }


---

2,420 games 0.005 secs 484,000 games/sec

Board: Qh 9d 5d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.248% 60.25% 00.00% 1458 0.00 { Ad3d }
Hand 1: 39.752% 39.75% 00.00% 962 0.00 { AA, 99, 55, KJs+, KdTd, JTs, 8d7d, KJo+, JTo }


---

what, this is way too optimistic imo
multiway flop and your only read is "seems a little fishy over 50 hands"

shove flop

considering our ace as an out (he may have kq/qj etc), we got 3 aces+ 9 diamonds+ 3 twos= 15 outs

i may call the rest(if my ace is an out- read and opponent dependable) 220$ on turn after alrdy investing 180$ and pot being 360$

we need more than 40%
stoving is fun

1,628 games 0.005 secs 325,600 games/sec

Board: Qh 9d 5d 4s
Dead:




equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.767% 34.77% 00.00% 566 0.00 { Ad3d }
Hand 1: 65.233% 65.23% 00.00% 1062 0.00 { 99, 55, AQs, KQs, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, Qc9c, Qh9h, Qs9s, JdTd, 8d6d, 7d6d, 6d4d, AQo, KQo }



2,112 games 0.005 secs 422,400 games/sec

Board: Qh 9d 5d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.725% 39.73% 00.00% 839 0.00 { Ad3d }
Hand 1: 60.275% 60.27% 00.00% 1273 0.00 { 99, 55, AQs, KQs, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, Qc9c, Qh9h, Qs9s, JdTd, 8d6d, 7d6d, 6d4d, AQo, KQo, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJh, QdJs, QhJs, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JhTs


2,508 games 0.005 secs 501,600 games/sec

Board: Qh 9d 5d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.357% 38.36% 00.00% 962 0.00 { Ad3d }
Hand 1: 61.643% 61.64% 00.00% 1546 0.00 { KK+, 99, 55, AQs, KQs, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, Qc9c, Qh9h, Qs9s, JdTd, 8d6d, 7d6d, 6d4d, AQo, KQo, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJh, QdJs, QhJs, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JhTs }

3,564 games 0.005 secs 712,800 games/sec

Board: Qh 9d 5d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.310% 39.31% 00.00% 1401 0.00 { Ad3d }
Hand 1: 60.690% 60.69% 00.00% 2163 0.00 { KK+, 99, 55, AQs, KQs, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, Qc9c, Qh9h, Qs9s, Qd8d, Qd7d, Qd6d, Qc5c, Qh5h, Qs5s, Qc4c, Qh4h, Qs4s, JdTd, Jd8d, Td8d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 6d4d, AQo, KQo, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, QTo+, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JhTs }

Board: Qh 9d 5d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.063% 40.06% 00.00% 1516 0.00 { Ad3d }
Hand 1: 59.937% 59.94% 00.00% 2268 0.00 { KK+, 99, 55, AQs, KQs, KdJd, KdTd, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd4d, Ks4s, QdJd, QdTd, Qc9c, Qh9h, Qs9s, Qd8d, Qd7d, Qd6d, Qc5c, Qh5h, Qs5s, Qc4c, Qh4h, Qs4s, JdTd, Jd8d, Jd4d, Td8d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d4d, 6d4d, AQo, KQo, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, QTo+, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JhTs }

e: there might be some minor mistakes like the Ks4s in the last range but I'm too lazy right now... I'm not too happy about a call here.. but that's just me..

lol enough with the stoves, I agree with dusty

actually I don't, I play it the same, now fold

Board: Qh 9d 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.768% 46.77% 00.00% 7408 0.00 { Ad3d }
Hand 1: 53.232% 53.23% 00.00% 8432 0.00 { 99, 55, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Td8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d }

And adding hands like KQ or AQ don't change our equity significantly (43% instead of 46%). Further I feel like KQ isn't really the type of hand that most people would c/r here, no?

weird the preflop raiser checks and he has a gosu read that we're going to bet the flop as a steal enough of the time...how can he check a drawy board like that.

i think i get confused and shove because i can't see him having a set and i don't mind if he calls with KQ AQ.

check flop

Hmm the villain took really strange line..
PF he called from cutoff,and then check flop after the initial raiser check.I highly doubt anyone will do this with a set(and 2 pairs is quite unlikely-I doubt he cold-calls Q9 pf),since it is a very draw-heavy 4-way pot.
So it is either as Myth suggested to check behind flop,or if you bet it,I think you definately should get it in,especially vs this guy with him checking 3rd,and then raising you.
I even think you are way ahead of him here-he either have sth. like smalled FD,or J10 and you are def good here IMO